Greetings all,

It's almost May. That means it’s time for the Twelfth Annual Ryder Family Triple Crown Handicapping Contest (henceforth abbreviated as 12ARFTCHC).

The rules of our contest are the same as usual. You pick three horses in each of the Triple Crown races - The Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands on May 3, the Preakness Stakes on May 17, and the Belmont Stakes on June 7. You'll then theoretically receive all possible payouts for $2 wagers (a total of $42 in wagers) involving those horses. If one of your horses wins, you get the win, place, and show payouts for that horse. If you pick the first two finishers you get the win, place, and show payouts of both horses plus the exacta payout, and so on. The order in which you pick your horses doesn't matter since I’ll box all the wagers giving you all the possible finishing combinations of your three horses. After all three races the person with the most money won is declared the winner. Last year in our contest, Gordon picked exactas in all three races to win our contest.

Don't forget to check the ARFTCHC blog. Thom has been posting Derby prep information and analysis on it all spring. I’ll be posting my field notes on it. You guys can post your comments and picks there for everyone to see too. You’ll find the blog at http://arftchc.blogspot.com/ You also can still email me your picks if you like. I've listed the horses and their connections below. Please send me your three horses by post time on Saturday which is approximately 6:00 pm EDT with NBC starting their coverage at 5:00 pm.

So here are the entrants in post position order.

	Post		Horse		Jockey		Trainer		ML Odds
	1		Cool Coal Man		Julian Leparoux		Nick Zito		20-1
	2		Tale of Ekati		Eibar Coa		Barclay Tagg		15-1
	3		Anak Nakal		Rafael Bejarano		Nick Zito		30-1
	4		Court Vision		Garrett Gomez		Bill Mott		20-1
	5		Eight Belles		Gabriel Saez		Larry Jones		20-1
	6		Z Fortune		Robby Albarado		Steve Asmussen		15-1
	7		Big Truck		Javier Castellano		Barclay Tagg		50-1
	8		Visionaire		Jose Lezcano		Micahel Matz		20-1
	9		Pyro		Shawn Bridgmohan		Steve Asmussen		6-1
	10		Colonel John		Corey Nakatani		Eoin Harty		4-1
	11		Z Humor		Rene Douglas		Bill Mott		30-1
	12		Smooth Air		Manoel Cruz		Bennie Stutts, Jr.		20-1
	13		Bob Black Jack		Richard Migliorie		James Kasparoff		20-1
	14		Monba		Ramon Dominguez		Todd Pletcher		15-1
	15		Adriano		Edgar Prado		Graham Motion		30-1
	16		Denis of Cork		Calvin Borel		David Carol		20-1
	17		Cowboy Cal		John Velazquez		Todd Pletcher		20-1
	18		Recapturetheglory		E.T. Baird		Louie Roussel III		20-1
	19		Gayego		Mike Smith		Paulo Lobo		15-1
	20		Big Brown		Kent Desormeaux		Rick Dutrow		3-1

Once again several horses are bucking long-standing historical trends, and handicappers continue to scratch their heads over the influence of artificial dirt tracks on the Derby preps. This year there were a lot of horses who ran well on one surface but not on another and we're left to wonder how well they will handle Churchill Downs which can be somewhat quirky in its own right. Some of the usual connections are back, but there are some interesting newcomers too, particularly among the jockeys.

I will be sending my own collection of factoids, rumors, and unsubstantiated opinions about the entrants in a couple of separate emails as well as posting them on the ARFTCHC blog. So grab your favorite handicapping pen, your dartboard, Magic 8 Ball, or your prognosticating pet and let me know your three Derby horses.


May the horse be with you.
The Annoyed Handicapper