Greetings all,
It’s Preakness time again, but this year’s field seems a bit different than usual. You know how I usually include in this write up the Ogden Nash quote, "The Derby is a race of aristocratic sleekness, for horses of birth to prove their worth to run in the Preakness?" Well, apparently the vast majority of the Derby field didn't get the memo about continuing on to the Preakness. The Preakness race field consists of two Derby horses and 11 new faces. More and more the Triple Crown Trail seems like those years where the Saturday Night Live cast has one talented comic and the rest of the cast are just taking up space. Yeah, I think we may be looking at Big Brown and the Not Ready for Prime Time Players this year. Of course that doesn't guarantee Big Brown will win. Just think about last year. How was Street Sense going to lose? Then Curlin came along to nip him at the wire. In 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus was the surest Triple Crown lock there had ever been. He lost to Red Bullet in the Preakness. Even when you know, you never know.
I've listed the entries and the usual factoids and unsubstantiated opinions about each of the horses below. Remember the race at Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore is 1 3/16 miles long – slightly shorter than the Derby. While Pimlico is often thought to favor early speed horses, closers often do well in the Preakness too. Weather forecasts are calling for rain showers on Friday, but clearing skies and wind on Saturday. The track should be fast by Preakness post time of 6:15 PM.
Saturday's Preakness Stakes Entries & Post Positions
[Click on chart for larger image]
Macho Again – Won the Derby Trial three weeks ago and earned a nice speed figure. In his only start longer than a mile he ran 7th behind Adriano in the Lane’s End on the fake dirt at Turfway Park. His connections didn't actually decide to run in the Preakness until this past Sunday. He might like a little moisture in the track since his fastest workout came on a muddy track. His preferred running style is to stalk the pace. Trainer Dallas Stewart was an assistant to D. Wayne Lukas during many of Wayne’s 5 Preakness victories. French ex patriot jockey Julien Leparoux has the mount.
Tres Borrachos - His name is Spanish for “three drunks.” He’s winless in 3 starts this year, and has a total of 1 lifetime win. He does have steadily improving, if somewhat unspectacular, speed figures in his last few races. He ran 3rd behind Gayego in the Arkansas Derby five weeks ago. Since that race he’s had some nice workouts at Churchill Downs. He should be one of the frontrunners in the race. He’s a Polish horse and has some nice stamina sources, including Triple Crown winner, Affirmed, in his pedigree.
Icabad Crane – He’s the only horse in the race who has run at Pimlico. He won the traditional Preakness prep race, the Tesio Stakes, 4 weeks ago after prevailing in a tough stretch duel. His speed figures do show an up and down pattern and it looks like we’re due for a downer this time. He is stabled at the Fair Hill Training Center in MD which is about an hour’s drive from Pimlico. Trainer Graham Motion will van the horse over to the track on Saturday morning. He’s a closer, so look for him to put in a big run from the back of the pack. He’s also won on a muddy track.
Yankee Bravo – In his last race he was 4th behind Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby. Before that he was 3rd behind Pyro in the LA Derby. He’s been stabled in California all spring and shipped into Pimlico on Wednesday. He’s had some nice workouts lately, particularly his last one which was a nice long 7 furlong work in a good time. He’s another closer and does seem to possess a pretty decent closing kick. He actually began his career in England last year before he was bought by his current owners.
Behindatthebar – He won the Lexington Stakes on Keeneland’s fake dirt 4 weeks ago with a good closing move. He could have run in the Derby, but his connections felt that the Derby would have given him too many races in too short a time, so they waited for the Preakness. He’s only raced on real dirt once and he finished 5th behind Tres Borrachos among others. He’s been training on real dirt at Belmont Park lately and doing well. The pedigree is a little on the speedy side, but there’s some stamina on his mom’s side. Todd Pletcher only has one horse in the race instead of his usual 4 or 5, so I’ll be curious to see how he passes the time in the saddling area – crossword puzzles, Sudoku, video games on his cellphone?
Racecar Rhapsody – He’s another one of the entrants who is winless this year and possesses only one lifetime win. He’s finished 4th in his last 3 races behind Z Humor, Adriano, and Behindatthebar among others. He does have some nice workouts at Churchill Downs since his last race. He’s one who might really like a muddy track. Jockey Robbie Albarado won last year on Curlin. Owner Jerry Carroll also owns the Kentucky Speedway and includes a checkered flag motif in his racing silks.
Big Brown – The Derby winner has been taking it easy at Churchill Downs – jogging, an occasional gallop, nothing too strenuous. He arrived at Pimlico on Wednesday evening, Rick Dutrow plans to blow him out a couple of furlongs (a fast ¼ mile workout) on Saturday morning. That’s some old school training right there. He did blow him out 3 furlongs a couple of days before the Derby too. Some trainers say it opens up a horse’s lungs and gets them on their toes. Dutrow has managed to simultaneously say his horse is invincible against the rest of the nags in the race, and give him an excuse that he’s coming back after only two weeks rest and might bounce. Political spinmeisters got nothing on him. This will be a homecoming for Dutrow who grew up on the Maryland tracks working for his father, successful trainer Dick Dutrow. Kent Desormeaux is a former Maryland Riding God himself.
Kentucky Bear – Big Brown aside, connections of all the horses have made no bones about the fact they are basically running in the race for the second place money. Kentucky Bear’s trainer, Reade Baker, is a notable exception. I quote, “Let’s not put Big Brown in the Hall of Fame too soon,” Baker said. “He was the best of the horses in the Derby, and the filly gave him a heckuva run. He beat those horses, but it certainly doesn't make him better than anyone else (in the Preakness).” Strong words from the trainer of a horse with 1 win in 3 lifetime starts. Last out, Kentucky Bear finished 3rd in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Monba after going 9 wide into the stretch. He does have the appearance of an improving horse though. He’s also been in residence at Pimlico longer than any of the other horses, having arrived almost 2 weeks ago. He’s gotten in a nice workout over a sloppy track while he’s been there, but his pedigree might be a little light on stamina.
Stevil – He’s another of the “winless this year and possesses only one lifetime win” brigade. In his last race he was 4th in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Monba and Kentucky Bear after a troubled trip. “Shoeless” Nick Zito has kept him stabled at Churchill Downs and he’s had some decent workouts. John Velazquez will be his 5th different jockey in 7 total starts. He might like mud. His name rhymes with “weevil” which I think is a bit unfortunate as it conjures up visions of destructive pests and Virginia Tech AD Jim Weaver.
Riley Tucker - Ahmed Zayat left his “Z” horses at home for the Preakness and instead entered a horse named after trainer Bill Mott’s son. I’m not sure if that means anything other than the fact that at least I won’t keep mixing the horse up with a similarly named stablemate as I type this. OK, you can all say it with me this time, “he’s winless this year and possesses only one lifetime win.” He does have improving speed figures and finished a nice 3rd behind Behindatthebar in the Lexington Stakes last out. He appears to be willing to run up front or lay off the pace. He also might move up on a wet track. Former Maryland Riding God, Edgar Prado, will be inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame this summer.
Giant Moon – He ran a game 4th behind Tale of Ekati in the Wood Memorial after pressing the pace. That was 7 weeks ago and he has been training well at Belmont Park since then, including a bullet work on Tuesday. His speed figures have been improving (if you throw out the really low fig he got running in the fog at Aqueduct where he finished 9th in the Gotham behind Visionaire.) Trainer Richard Shosberg wasn’t happy with the outside post position. He’s worried his horse will have to run too fast too early to get position on the Clubhouse Turn. Jockey Ramon Dominguez is another Former Maryland Riding God and knows Pimlico well.
Gayego – His connections didn't decide to run until this past Tuesday. They wanted to give him some recovery time after his 17th place Derby finish in which he shied away from the crowd going past the stands the first time and ended up running over top of several other horses. After that he pretty much lost interest in the whole process. Can’t say as I blame him, but he’s feeling good now and he gets another chance to validate his nice Arkansas Derby win. Look for him to try to get position near the front, but it will be difficult from his outside post position.
Hey Byrn – He won the Holy Bull Stakes at the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles in his last start. Before that he was a distant 4th behind Big Brown in the Florida Derby after being bumped hard at the start. Trainer Eddie Plesa says Hey Byrn has tactical speed that he can use to get position going into the Clubhouse Turn. Hey Byrn made the 20 hour van ride from Calder Race Track in Miami on May 12. Originally he was going to run in the Ohio Derby, but owner Beatrice Oxenberg will celebrate her 87th birthday on Friday with family in the Baltimore area and decided to combine that with watching her horse run on Saturday. Hey Byrn is named for her late husband, Bernie.
There’s the field – Big Brown and the Not Ready For Prime Time Players.
Don't forget to check the ARFTCHC blog. Thom will be posting his analysis, and I’ll post these field notes on it. You guys can post your comments and picks there for everyone to see too. You’ll find the blog at http://arftchc.blogspot.com/ .
In the 12ARFTCHC Jacqueline and Peter Andre have the lead on the rest of us who are bunched tightly as we head down the backstretch. Who will make a move to catch the leaders? Send me your three picks by post time on Saturday (approx. 6:15 pm), and we’ll see.
My picks will be:
Big Brown – well, duh …
Giant Moon – lacking any other inspiration I look to the heavens
Yankee Bravo – maybe he’ll improve on real dirt
I reserve the right to be shallow and change any of these picks if I see a pretty pony in the post parade.
May the horse be with you.
And also with you.
Lift up your bridle.
We lift them up to the jockey.
Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.
It is right to give him thanks and painted daisies.
~The Annoyed Handicapper
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