HOA

In case you are new to this blog, ARFTCHC is a blog dedicated to one purpose, my family's quirky horse-racing contest.  Why?  Well, because.  I'm fortunate to be a part of horseless horse family.  Every weekend, my parents would tune in the Winn Dixie horse races at 7pm on Saturday nights.  We'd all have our Winn Dixie cards and we'd shout and stamp for "our horses"  in taped races.

Fast forward.  My oldest sister got into library preservation and took a position at University of Kentucky.  There she stumbled into a project to preserve The Daily Racing Form.  That parlayed into her taking the position of Director of The Keeneland Library, the greatest thoroughbred horse research library in the country/world.

My little sister, The Annoyed Handicapper, started young by collecting horse models and reading every horse book available over and over.   She has finished near the top in national contests and, while mellowing a bit, still has a handicapping edge. 

Both of my brothers and I have a serious interest in horses, and we have passed that along to our spouses, children and family friends.  Along the 17 years of this contest, we've collected people and even been featured on a national public radio program.

Through it all,  my family is grounded by our contest.  Welcome to the family.

Newt

Greetings all,

As promised, here is the only official web-based installment of factoids, rumors, and unsubstantiated opinions about the Derby runners.  With nineteen horses to cover I’ll be splitting this up into a couple of emails. 

Below I've included the rankings from my surprisingly successful (7 winners in 17 years) Derby handicapping process.  It's the same system as usual.  I evaluate each horse in seven different categories, with each horse being assigned a purely subjective rating between 1 and 10.  Ten is the worst and 1 is the best.  The seven ratings are then weighted and totaled according to a secret formula.  In this system the lower the score the better.  The seven categories are as follows:

1.  Breeding (B) – Does the horse have a pedigree that gives them a shot at running 1 ¼ miles faster than a slug? Do I personally like any of the horses in the pedigree or their half-siblings, cousins, stablemates,etc.

2.  Hype (H) - Bad marks if I hear a horse's/trainer's name on the local news, or if I see the horse's/trainer's name in The Roanoke Times prior to Saturday. There has been an abnormal amount of coverage in the paper this year (daily photos and articles for a whole week!), so I think this category may be misleading this year.  Not sure why this coverage has happened, but Nascar has been really boring this year, and the paper needs to fill space somehow (or maybe they just searched for the wrong kind of horsepower?)

3.  Name (N) - Would the name look good on a Derby glass?   Is it a clever or poetic name?  What are the headline possibilities?  Is it a name that as one blogger put it, “can be shouted without embarrassment for two minutes straight”? Negative ratings for runallthewordstogethernames. 

4.  Mystery (M) - the dark horse category.  How stupefied will the pundits be if this horse wins?   The more stupefied the better.

5.  Karma/best story (K) - Is there some touching, funny, sad story connected to the horse and/or his connections? Are the connections old timers who have paid their dues or enthusiastic newcomers? Have the connections won before or are they still looking for that first magical win?  

6.  Annoyance (A) - How annoying will it be to me personally if this horse and/or connections win?  This entire system is most successful when I weight this category the highest in the ratings.  As usual I am annoyed by huge fields, so I’m continuing to weight this category heavily.  Not a common approach, I know, but I am  "The Annoyed Handicapper."TM

7.  The usual handicapping stuff (Hnd) - race records, workouts, post positions, speed figs, stuff that may or may not really matter come Derby Day anyway. 

And now onward to the horses.

I’ve listed the first ten horses and my ratings for each.

2014	B	Hype	N	M	K	A	Hnd	total
Vicar's In Trouble	7	3	4	4	4	4	6	40
Harry's Holiday	7	2	5	3	5	4	5	39
Uncle Sigh	6	4	5	5	2	3	7	38
Danza	5	5	4	6	5	5	4	44
California Chrome	4	6	3	7	2	2	3	31
Samraat	5	3	3	4	4	3	5	33
We Miss Artie	5	2	5	3	5	4	7	39
General A Rod	3	4	6	3	5	5	6	42
Vinceremos	5	3	3	3	6	5	7	42
Wildcat Red	7	3	5	3	4	3	6	37

Vicar's In Trouble - Wire to wire winner of the Louisiana Derby in his last race defeating Intense Holiday and Commanding Curve.  It was not a fast time, but he won easily and earned a good speed figure.  He's been at Churchill Downs since that race and seems to have about the same kind of workout pattern as he did leading up to the LA Derby.  His pedigree looks like it might be a little iffy to get the full 1 1/4 miles of the Derby.  Trainer Mike Maker and Jockey Rosie Napravnik are both seeking their first Derby wins.

Harry's Holiday -  He lost a shoe in his last race, the Blue Grass at Keeneland, and just jogged around the track.  Two races back he lost the Spiral Stakes by a nose to We Miss Artie on fake dirt.  He won a race at Churchill Downs last year.  His speed figures have a good race - bad race pattern, and we're looking for the good race this time.  His pedigree could be suspect for the Derby distance.  Jockey Corey Lanerie is making his first Derby start.

Uncle Sigh - Finished 5th in the Wood Memorial last out and was 2nd by a neck behind Samraat in the race before that.  He's been posting bullet workouts (fastest of the day at that distance) in New York and just shipped in to Churchill Downs this week.  His speed figures are consistently decent, but don't really show any improvement from race to race.  His pedigree has the really strong stamina a couple of generations back, but as a descendant of Danzig, he's our first Polish horse in the race.  He's owned by Wounded Warrior Stables who donate a percentage of his winnings to various veterans charities.  Jockey Irad Ortiz will be racing against his brother, Jose who rides Samraat.

Danza - Yes, he is named for actor Tony Danza.  Danza the actor starred in the sitcom "Who's The Boss".  Danza the horse is a son of Street Boss.  See what the owners did there?  Street Boss was more of a sprinter, but there is still some stamina in the pedigree.  Danza the horse won the Arkansas Derby easily last out over Ride On Curlin.  It was his 2nd start after a 7 month layoff to heal a knee injury.  He earned a very impressive speed figure for that race, but his good race - bad race pattern is indicating we're due for the bad race this time.  He did have a nice workout at Churchill Downs on Sunday.  He's the first of Todd Pletcher's four entries in the Derby.  (Todd's taking it easy this year.)

California Chrome - He won the Santa Anita Derby impressively last out over Hoppertunity and Candy Boy earning the highest speed figure of any horse in the race Saturday.  He's been working sharply in California since then and shipped in to Churchill Downs on Wednesday.  Horses with lots of white markings are referred to as having a lot of chrome.  California Chrome is a big red horse with 4 white socks and a big white blaze.  His pedigree has the stamina influences a couple of generations back, but they are of high quality and numerous - plus he's Polish.  Trainer Art Sherman was an exercise rider for 1955 Derby winner Swaps and would become the oldest trainer to win the Derby.

Samraat - He was undefeated prior to finishing 2nd to Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial last out.  He received the same speed figure in his last 4 races, so he's consistent, but I'd be happier if that consistent figure was about 5 points higher.  Trainer Richard Violette has given him a consistent program of stamina-building 1 mile workouts which might help overcome the pedigree which has the notable stamina 4 generations back.  Jockey Jose Ortiz will be riding against his older brother, Irad, who rides Uncle Sigh.  Samraat is an Ancient Indian title which can be translated as "emperor".

We Miss Artie - Won the Spiral Stakes last out on fake dirt beating Harry's Holiday.  He's had 6 weeks of rest since then, mostly spent training in Florida.  He shipped into Churchill Downs last week and had a nice workout there on Sunday.  His only 2 races on real dirt have been by far his worst efforts.  His pedigree has some stamina and he's another of the many Polish horses in the race.  Owner Ken Ramsay is a Kentuckian who has wanted to win the Derby since he first saw the Twin Spires when he was 5 years old.  He has two horses entered this year.  Of course Artie's trainer, Todd Pletcher, has 4 horses running.  I wonder if Artie wishes just once he could be the center of attention.

General a Rod - He's not named for the baseball player, but instead his previous owner, J. Armando Rodriguez who named him after himself.  Mr. Rodriguez must have felt a strong connection to the horse to do that, but not strong enough to prevent him from selling the horse this week for $6 million.  General a Rod was 3rd in the Florida Derby last out finishing behind Wildcat Red.  He's worked well at Churchill Downs and his pedigree has quite a bit of stamina.

Vinceremos - Finished last in the Blue Grass Stakes 3 weeks ago (didn't even beat Harry's Holiday who threw a shoe and just basically jogged the last part of the race.)  Perhaps he just thought Keeneland's fake dirt was icky, or maybe he had a headache - no one knows.  He ran 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby prior to that though on real dirt.  He had a nice workout at Churchill Downs on Sunday.  He has some nice stamina in his pedigree and is kin to Patty's beloved horse, Key Spirit.   His name means to conquer or overcome in Latin.

Wildcat Red - Ran 2nd by a neck in the Florida Derby after a stretch duel in his last race.  He won his 2 races before that beating General a Rod and Pablo Del Monte.  He is projected to be one of the speed horses in the race.  His pedigree is not particularly encouraging to get the Derby distance.  His trainer, Jose Garoffalo, has pointed out that the horse's name should play well in Kentucky, "We need to keep everybody happy," he said. "He's still a Wildcat, and he's still red like a Cardinal. We're very democratic."  In truth the owners just thought they had a pretty red horse sired by D'Wildcat.  For the record my cat, Pearl, just jumped on the keyboard during this section and typed a string of "4"'s followed by 3 lines of "y"'s.  Interpret that how you will.

So here are my rankings for the rest of the field.

2014	B	Hype	N	M	K	A	Hnd	total
Dance With Fate	4	3	3	4	5	4	7	38
Chitu	7	3	3	3	4	3	4	33
Medal Count	2	3	3	4	4	4	6	34
Tapiture	5	3	5	3	5	7	6	48
Intense Holiday	8	3	4	4	5	5	3	42
Commanding Curve	4	6	5	3	4	3	5	36
Candy Boy	6	2	3	3	4	5	6	39
Ride On Curlin	4	2	4	3	5	4	5	35
Wicked Strong	4	5	2	7	2	2	3	29

Dance With Fate - Came from behind to win the Blue Grass Stakes last out over Medal Count (with 3 - shoe Harry's Holiday and icky - fake - dirt Vinceremos far behind.)  Dance With Fate has raced mostly on fake dirt or turf, but did have a nice 2nd place finish on Santa Anita's real dirt track last year.  He had a very sharp workout at Santa Anita Saturday before shipping in to Churchill Downs.  His pedigree has some serious stamina influences, but you have to go back about 3 generations to find them.  He's Polish though!  This will be jockey Corey Nakatani's 16th Derby ride with no winners.  He is, however, a 3 handicap golfer.

Chitu - He won the Sunland Park Derby last out earning a very good speed figure and was 2nd to Candy Boy in the RB Lewis at Santa Anita 2 races back.  Chitu was originally Bouncy Bob Baffert's "other" horse in the Derby, but after the scratch of Hoppertunity he's Bouncy Bob's last hope.  Bouncy Bob often wins big races with his "other" horse and a few racing folks have commented that Bob has been awfully silent about this horse's chances.  Chitu has been working sharply at Churchill Downs for the last couple of weeks.  His pedigree is pretty speedy on his dad's side, but there's good stamina on his mom's side.  Chitu was named after a famous horse in China, and it also happens to be the year of the horse in the Chinese calendar.

Medal Count - Closed strongly in the Blue Grass Stakes to finish 2nd to Dance With Fate on fake dirt.  He won a stakes race in the Keeneland mud prior to that.  His only 2 races on dirt were not very successful, but he does have a nice workout at Churchill Downs this past Saturday.  His speed figures have been steadily improving and trainer Dale Romans has been notably optimistic about his chances.  He has plenty of stamina in his pedigree, but this will be his 3rd start in 29 days - an unusually heavy schedule these days.  He has an appropriate name for an Olympic year.

Tapiture -  He was 4th in the Arkansas Derby behind Danza and Ride On Curlin and 2nd to Hoppertunity in the Rebel Stakes before that.  He had a somewhat slow workout at Churchill Downs on Monday, but it was over a muddy track during a downpour, so I'll cut him some slack.  He has actually won a race at Churchill Downs.  He's a son of Tapit who finished 9th in the 2004 Derby behind Smarty Jones.  Tapit has also sired Untapable who easily won the Kentucky Oaks today.  There are some notable stamina influences in his pedigree, but like most of the other horses in the race they are a few generations back. 

Intense Holiday - He ran 2nd to Vicar's In Trouble in the Louisiana Derby, but narrowly beat him in the Risen Star Stakes prior to that.  Some racing reporters think he has had the best workouts of all the Derby horses at Churchill Downs.  Trainer Todd Pletcher described Intense Holiday's Sunday workout as "exceptionally good".  Intense Holiday sometimes has trouble changing leads during his races (his legs kind of get a little tangled), but sessions with an equine chiropractor have supposedly helped that issue.  Like many other Derby horses the notable stamina influences in his pedigree are several generations back. 

Commanding Curve - He closed to finish 3rd behind Vicar's In Trouble and Intense Holiday in the Louisiana Derby but was 6th in the Risen Star Stakes before that.  He has been working well at Churchill Downs for the last month.  His speed figures have one of those good race - bad race patterns, and it is unfortunately time for the bad race.  His pedigree has a lot of stamina starting a couple of generations back.  His mom's name is "Mother".  A quick check of the Jockey Club registered names database does not show any Thoroughbreds named Father who could be sought for her future matings.  Too bad.

Candy Boy - He was the "It" horse in California earlier this year when he beat Chitu in the RB Lewis Stakes, but then he ran 3rd to California Chrome in the Santa Anita Derby and might as well have dropped off the face of the earth.  He had a really nice workout at Churchill Downs Saturday.  His pedigree appears to be more suited for shorter distances, but there are a couple of stamina influences.  Gary Stevens came out of his extended retirement last year and ended up winning the Preakness on Oxbow.  He'd really like to add another Derby to the 3 he's already won.

Ride On Curlin - He was 2nd to Danza in the Arkansas Derby and 3rd behind Hoppertunity and Tapiture in the Rebel Stakes before that.  He's had a couple of nice long workouts since then, including one at Churchill Downs on Sunday.   He's a son of Curlin who ran 3rd in the 2007 Derby and there's quite a bit of stamina in the pedigree.  Churchill Downs oddsmaker, Mike Battaglia, announced after the post position draw that the over/under distance for jockey Calvin Borel to go from his outside post position to his beloved rail position is 300 yds.  I'll take the under on that wager.

Wicked Strong - He won the Wood Memorial over Samraat last out and earned a very good speed figure.  Prior to that race he'd not done much this year.  He's been training at Belmont Park where his old-school trainer Jimmy Jerkens has worked him sharply over a variety of distances (maybe a sort of interval training?)  He had a lung opening 3 furlong workout Thursday morning after shipping into Churchill Downs.  That's a training method older trainers used right before races to put a horse on their toes.  Wicked Strong is a son of 2007 Derby runner up Hard Spun and has lots of stamina in the pedigree.  He's also Polish and was born on Becky's birthday.  He was named in honor of the victims of the Boston Marathon bombing (the name Boston Strong was already taken, but "wicked" is a commonly-used adjective in the Boston area) and a portion of his winnings are donated to funds to help the victims.

So there are your nineteen horses.

It appears I will be selecting:
Wicked Strong
California Chrome
Samraat

Although it must be noted that my ranking system indicates there's not a lot of difference among these horses, so I may be swayed into a different pick if I see a pretty pony in the post parade.

So send me your 3 picks by post time on Saturday, and let's see what happens when the starting gate opens.

Safe trips to all horses and humans.

The Annoyed Handicapper