Saturday, May 3, 2008

The Field: Part 2

…And here’s the other half of the field.

{Click Chart for larger image}



Z Humor - I still can’t keep the “Z” horses straight. This guy finished third behind Recapturetheglory in the Illinois Derby four weeks ago and before that he was fourth behind Cool Coal Man and Court Vision in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. His speed figures are generally increasing and he has been working pretty well at Churchill Downs. This is Bill Mott’s second horse in the race and he’s still looking for his first Derby win. Z Humor does have an ok pedigree for a mile and a quarter and as a descendant of Danzig he’s a Polish horse.


Smooth Air – He ran a good second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby five weeks ago and won the Hutcheson Stakes earlier in the year. His speed figures have an up and down pattern and it looks like he might be due for a down race. He ran a low fever last week, but appears to have recovered completely. He worked three furlongs Thursday morning to open up his lungs and seemed to do it easily. Trainer Bennie Stutts is 70 years old and has been training for forty years. He’s resorted to some old school training methods to compensate for Smooth Air’s speedy pedigree, regularly sending him out for long seven furlong or mile workouts to build stamina. Smooth Air was born on Greg’s birthday.


Bob Black Jack – He holds the current world record for six furlongs. Of course it was set on some freakishly fast fake dirt at Santa Anita this winter, and world records at six furlongs are probably not relevant to performance in a mile and a quarter race, but still, world record! So we know Bob Black Jack is fast. He can also stretch out in distance as shown by his good second place finish to Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby four weeks ago, but he’s still pretty iffy to get a mile and a quarter though. He arrived at Churchill Downs last week and has put in a good workout over the track. Observers have noted he doesn’t have the most graceful stride. He sort of flails away so his front legs look like eggbeaters, but did I mention he’s fast? He also likes to run in front.


Monba – Todd Pletcher is getting sneaky. He spent all spring losing horribly in the prep races, and just when it looked like he would have no entrants in the Derby his horses run first and second in the Blue Grass Stakes. They were about the only horses who did not run mystifyingly badly in the Blue Grass Stakes on the fake dirt. All of Monba’s best speed figures have come on the fake dirt. He had looked like a good horse early in the year, but throat problems during the Fountain of Youth resulted in a twelfth place finish and a need to take some time off. He’s been training at Keeneland for the last month and has no recorded workouts at Churchill Downs. He did win a race at Churchill last fall. His pedigree looks pretty good for a mile and a quarter and he was born on Mom’s birthday.


Adriano – Won the Lane’s End on fake dirt six weeks ago by simply galloping the field into submission. All of his races have been on fake dirt or turf except the Fountain of Youth where he acted up in the paddock and ran ninth behind Cool Coal Man. Trainer Graham Motion hopes it was the nerves that led to the poor performance and not a dislike of real dirt. Adriano has been schooling in the paddock almost every day at Churchill Downs and has behaved very well. He’s also put in a couple of good workouts over the track. His pedigree says the distance should be no problem, but he’s a late May foal so actually he’s still pretty young. Former Maryland Riding God Edgar Prado was just elected to the Racing Hall of Fame. Edgar chose to ride Adriano in the Derby over Tale of Ekati and Monba. Of course when he made his choice it was before Tale of Ekati won the Wood Memorial and Monba won the Blue Grass.


Denis of Cork – His connections decided to get cute with their preparations this spring and ended up not having enough earnings to make the Derby field. They had to sweat through a few horses deciding not to run before they could be sure they were in the race. In the meantime Denis had been working brilliantly at Churchill Downs. If you get a chance watch some replays of his workouts and watch how well he corners on the turns. He’s practically glued to the rail. In his last race he ran fifth behind Recapturetheglory in the Illinois Derby. Prior to that he had won his first three races pretty easily, including his first race at Churchill Downs last fall. He was named for an Irish priest who is a friend of the owner. Last year’s Derby-winning jockey, Calvin Borel, tries for a repeat.


Cowboy Cal – Sneaky Todd Pletcher’s other entrant ran second to Monba in the Blue Grass to earn his way into the Derby. Prior to that race he’d been running pretty successfully on turf. He has a good pedigree for dirt too and one that should help him get a mile and a quarter ok. He’s been training at Keeneland for the last month and has no recorded workouts at Churchill Downs. Any money he earns in the Derby will be donated to the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston in memory of one of the owners’ friends. As I noted after the Belmont last year, “It was good to see Pletcher and John Velazquez get their first Triple Crown race wins. Of course next spring they’ll still have to answer the question, “You can win the Belmont with a filly, so how come you can’t win the Derby after entering umpteen bazillion horses?” Cowboy Cal is their chance to end those inquiries for good.


Recapturetheglory – Twenty years ago owner/trainer Louis Roussel and owner Ronnie Lamarque brought Risen Star (yes, the same one they named a Derby prep race after) to the Derby and he ran third as the favorite behind the filly Winning Colors. He then went on to win the Preakness and the Belmont. It’s taken the owners twenty years to get back and Louis had been saving the name Recapturetheglory for a special horse he thought could get them to the Derby and win it in honor of Risen Star. That was looking like a pretty iffy prospect until Recapturetheglory led wire to wire to win the Illinois Derby beating Denis of Cork and earning the third highest speed figure in a Derby prep in the process. He’s had a couple of decent workouts at Churchill Downs since that race, and he did run second behind Cool Coal Man in an allowance race there last fall. The pedigree is a bit doubtful for a mile and a quarter – most of the stamina is several generations back.


Gayego – He won the Arkansas Derby over Z Fortune in his last race which was his first one on real dirt. Previously he had been running on the fake dirt in California. He has one of those up and down patterns in his speed figures and it appears we’re heading down for the Derby. He had a good workout at Churchill Downs in the mud last weekend. He likes to run on or near the lead. His pedigree is not made for a mile and a quarter, but it wasn’t made for a mile and an eighth either which was the length of the Arkansas Derby he won. He’s a big strapping horse with a big girth and certain unflattering camera angles make him look like a pregnant broodmare. The owners are a couple of political refugees from Cuba who came to the US in the early 1970’s. They named him for the residents of the Galicia region in Northern Spain.


Big Brown – The name’s not quite as dopey as Big Truck, but it’s close. The owner has a trucking company that does a lot of business with UPS, so he named the horse for them. That’s one way to bring in a customer. Big Brown has certainly delivered so far, winning his total of three lifetime races by a combined 29 lengths. Yes, only three lifetime races. The last Derby winner with that few races was the filly, Regret, in 1915. Last year Curlin had four lifetime races prior to his third place Derby finish. Big Brown had some foot problems after his first race last fall, so they had to take it easy with him for a while. He still wears glue on shoes to prevent any further problems. In his last race he beat Smooth Air in the Florida Derby by five lengths in a very fast time while breaking from the far outside post. He earned the highest speed figure for any Derby prep in that race. Trainer Dick Dutrow has been expressing extreme confidence in horse. Some people think it’s more like trash-talking. Some even think his choice of the twentieth post position when posts 18, 19, 1, and 2 were available was a deliberate slap at the rest of the field. Dutrow says he figured his horse would get a cleaner trip from the far outside, and I think that sounds reasonable enough. Big Brown arrived from Florida on Tuesday and had a short but speedy workout at Churchill Downs on Thursday morning. His pedigree might be a bit questionable for a mile and a quarter since his sire was a sprinter, but there’s quite a bit of stamina on his mom’s side. He’s also a Polish horse.


There’s the field…finally.


If you’re still with me it appears my system is picking:


Adriano – his high leg action reminds me of Skip Away, of course Skippy hated running at Churchill Downs.

Eight Belles – I’d like to see Larry Jones win it.

Pyro – I got on the bandwagon before the Breeders’ Cup last year. Might as well stay on.


Don’t forget to send me your three horses by post time on Saturday. We’ll be glued to the TV all day if anyone would care to join us to watch the race.




May the horse be with you.

And also with you.
Lift up your bridle.

We lift them up to the jockey.

Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.

It is right to give him thanks and roses.


~The Annoyed Handicapper

2 comments:

Newt said...

It's time for me to weigh in.

20 horses. All running forward. All at the same time. 20 humans on 20 backs. Moving fast. So much can and will happen to derail or bo-rail dreams.

First off, let me say this. I can't support Big Brown. I'm opposed to the "investment" ownership model and I dislike the trainer greatly. In my opinion, the man should not be allowed a license to train after being busted for doping. His arrogance and insincere apology make him a despicable figure.

Fortunately, there are two other strong contenders in the race that I will go with.

I like Pyro to win. I saw Pyro run in the BC Juvenile where he couldn't quite get past War Pass. Yet he ran hard. In the Risen Star, he faced something that few of the horses today have dealt with successfully: traffic. His jockey bided time and allowed pointed Pyro into a hole from the back of the pack and he blew past his rivals. Pyro is also an experienced horse. Not too many horses are as experienced.

I equally like Colonel John. In his recent races out west, he has looked powerful and professional. The big question is, can he translate his success to the dirt? Well, a recent bullet work at Churchill recently seems to have put that monkey to bed for a while.

Picking a show horse is where the fun really begins. It literally could be any horse. Perhaps the speed Bob Black Jack, Gayego, Recapturetheglory, and Big Brown can hang on for third. I don't think so, however.

That leaves other horse who have reported been working well. Specifically, Court Vision, Visionaire, Denis of Cork, Cowboy Cal, Anak Nakal, and Eight Belles.


In the end, I'm just going to go with the horse I rode in on: Visionaire.

Again, though, anyone could win. Anyone could do anything.

Newt said...

Obviously I didn't proofread...but I think you get the idea.