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Virginia Derby Day at Colonial Downs

Virginia Derby Day at Colonial Downs

The drive back to Roanoke from Colonial Downs took about four hours this evening. As we were sitting under our shaded tent bench seat in front of the grandstand, a lady asked my sister where we were from. When she found out it was Roanoke, the lady was amazed that we had traveled that far to see the races. Personally, I thought it was no big deal.

Colonial is a beautiful place to watch a race. The turf course is pristine and the viewing is easy.

I didn't have an especially fine day at the races; however, I did manage to pull a mild upset in Race 3, a filly and mare 1 1/16 allowance for 3 year olds and up. I had a win/place bet on winner Kitty Cat Express and a Place/Show bet on second place finisher Stirrup Cup. So I cashed in about $40 on my $8. I didn't think at the time to do an exacta box on the two. If I had, I would have netted $169 on my $2 bet.

The big races of the day were the Kitten's Joy Stakes, The Virginia Oaks, and The Virginia Derby. Nine year old Midwatch, ridden by Edgar Prado, won The Kitten's Joy. Midwatch is an old horse, but he held off Hunting Print, ridden by Kent Desourmeaux, at the line. That was the beginning of Prado domination.

In the Virginia Oaks, Julia Tuttle, ridden by Special K (Horacio Karamanos) leaped out to a commanding lead that kept growing all the way until past the final turn. That's when Prado blasted the favorite, I Lost My Choo, up through the pack and into to a solid half length win at the wire over Kent Desourmeaux's mount, Namaste's Wish. Julia Tuttle held on for a solid third.

In the feature race, The Virginia Derby, the anticipated duel between favorites Sailor's Cap and Gio Ponti was interrupted by Kent Desourmeaux aboard Court Vision. Prado was mountless for this race when his horse scratched, but Garrett Gomez flew in for the race to put Desourmeaux in his place. Actually, the race turned out to be quite a duel between Court Vision and Gio Ponti. Down the stretch, they bumped and banged with Gio Ponti winning by a nose. I spoke with Garrett Gomez after the race and jokingly asked him if that #4 horse (Court Vision) sneaked up on him at the finish. He snarled, "What? He bumped me the whole way down the stretch." I guess Garrett didn't catch my sarcasm. He did sign my program, however, and I observed him a moment later giving a rose from his winner's bouquet to a nice older lady standing by the rail. Court Vision almost won this race, which I find ironic. All spring, I waited and waited for Court Vision to win a race leading up to the Kentucky Derby, but he never did. He was in my fantasy stable and earned me exactly no points. Even more ironic was the fact that Garrett Gomez was one of my fantasy stable jockeys and earned me zero points all through the contest. Saturday in one race, both of those demons were exorcised (or exercised).

All in all, I had a marvelous time at the track. Some old friends from Northern Virginia showed up and we reminisced and chatted. I ate a delicious Philly Cheesesteak and learned how to bet and lose a Double and a $0.10 superfecta.

Colonial Downs Virginia Derby

Tomorrow, I'll be visiting Colonial Downs for the 2008 Virginia Derby (Grade II $750,000)

Court Vision tries the turf again hoping for better results. Many of the top national jockeys will be there: Desormeaux, Johnny V, Prado, and Albarado, as well as local track god Special K.

Belmont Revisited, Contest Results

One advantage to waiting so long to write a summary of the Belmont Stakes is I'm able to compile quite a list of reasons, excuses, and conspiracy theories that have been floated for Big Brown’s loss. Injury and illness have been ruled out, but we're still left with the following most popular items:

• The quarter crack bothered him during the race.
• The missed training and enforced rest due to the quarter crack left him too antsy and difficult to handle around the barn for the last couple of weeks. Much different than his usual easy-going nature.
• The excessive heat (90+ degrees) bothered him.
• The race was fixed by the mafia.
• Big Brown was too lightly-raced and lacked the fitness and maturity horses develop through racing.
• Big Brown lacks competitive fortitude. When things didn't go his way going into the first turn he basically packed it in for the day.
• Big Brown was rank during the race and never relaxed.
• Not enough stamina in the pedigree.
• No steroids since April.
• Kent Desormeaux’s an idiot and all that maneuvering on the first turn was completely unnecessary.
• Rick Dutrow’s an idiot and trained Big Brown too lightly after the Preakness.
• The Racing Gods do not appreciate hubris. While they have no problem with quiet confidence on the part of a horse’s connections, they take a dim view of people who completely disregard the part the Racing Gods and racing luck can play in the outcome of a race.

So take your pick from the above list or come up with a reason of your own. Whatever the reason or reasons we're still left Triple Crownless for another year. But let’s give the winner some props. That was a fine race run by Da’Tara and a very heady ride by jockey Alan Garcia. And how about Shoeless Nick Zito? His Belmont record just keeps improving. Denis of Cork put in a good run to finish a respectable second, and Ready’s Echo and Anak Nakal finished in an exciting dead heat. An abbreviated chart is listed below.

Belmont S. - Grade: 1
Winning Time:2:29.65

Pgm	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
6	Da' Tara	Alan Garcia	79.00	28.00	14.80
4	Denis of Cork	Robby Albarado		5.40	4.10
9	Ready's Echo	John R. Velazquez			6.20
8	Anak Nakal	Julien R. Leparoux			7.60

Race Comments: DA' TARA angled in after taking the lead in the early stages, opened a clear advantage on the first turn, raced uncontested on the front while moving to the three path on the backstretch, dug in when threatened briefly on the turn, drifted out after being struck left handed with the whip at the three-sixteenths pole, straightened away when the rider switched to the right hand whip in midstretch and edged away under steady urging through the final eighth. DENIS OF CORK was unhurried early, moved out entering the backstretch, raced in the middle of the pack while four wide for seven furlongs, split rivals while gaining midway on the turn, advanced four wide at the top of the stretch, took up chase after the winner in upper stretch but was no match for that one while clearly best of the others. ANAK NAKAL was bumped by BIG BROWN and carried out on the first turn, angled in a bit approaching the backstretch, raced within striking distance in the three path for seven furlongs, moved between horses when asked for run midway on then turn then closed gradually to gain a share. READY'S ECHO was outrun for a half, saved ground leaving the far turn, swung six wide nearing the quarter pole and failed to menace while improving his position late. MACHO AGAIN was rated in good position between horses, angled to the rail on the far turn, lodged a mild rally along the inside to reach contention at the top of the stretch, but failed to sustain his bid. TALE OF EKATI pressed the early pace from outside, tracked the winner while five wide along the backstretch, raced just behind that rival into upper stretch and steadily tired thereafter. GUADALCANAL stumbled and checked at the start and never reached contention while saving ground throughout. ICABAD CRANE was never a factor while four wide. BIG BROWN steadied and broke outward at the start, moved up inside, steadied sharply while rank in the opening quarter of a mile, steadied and was taken to the outside bumping with ANAK ANKAL on the first turn, swung seven wide moving into the backstretch, stalked the leaders while continuing wide for seven furlongs, was asked for run when tapped left handed on the far turn then dropped back abruptly midway on the turn and was pulled up approaching the quarter pole.

In the 12ARFTCHC Jeane Marie was the only person who picked Da’Tara, so she made a bold move to pass Gordon and wind up in third place in the contest. Peter picked Denis of Cork to widen his lead over Jacqueline coming down the stretch. He finished with a very nice total of $256.30. Congratulations to Peter for winning in his first attempt at the contest. Not an easy thing to do in this company.

So another year, another contest, another Triple Crown miss. Tune in again next spring when the whole process cranks up again with new heroes, villains, horses, and stories. In the meantime the racing on the track continues. Some of this year’s horses have already returned to the track. Smooth Air and Pyro won their return races. Court Vision, Adriano, and Kentucky Bear tried the turf at Colonial Downs yesterday with mixed success. Look for Big Brown to reappear in the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park in early August. Shoeless Nick will probably have some of his horses in the Travers at the end of August. Lots of good stuff yet to come.

Until next year,

May the horse be with you.

And also with you.
Lift up your bridle.

We lift them up to the jockey.

Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.

It is right to give him thanks and blankets of flowers.

Sore Loser

I figured that when Rick Dutrow, Jr. finally spoke up about the Belmont Stakes, he'd find a way to place blame. In this AP Wire Report, he does just that.

"I don't know why he had to do that," said Dutrow, who questioned Desormeaux's decisions in the race.

Entering the first turn, Desormeaux took a hard hold of Big Brown and yanked him to the outside, bumping with Anak Nakal before finding running room outside of Tale of Ekati while Da' Tara opened up a three-length lead around the clubhouse turn.

"I'm sure he didn't have any idea what the hell was going on going into the first turn the way (Desormeaux) was switching him all over the damn track," Dutrow said. "I don't know what he was doing."

I'm no jockey, but what I saw Kent Desormeaux do was save a horse. He realized that for whatever reason, he didn't have a horse. Based on his past experience with this horse, he suspected something was wrong, so he pulled the plug on his race. It was a brave move and the right move.

Perhaps Dutrow should just go hide in a barn. No one likes a sore loser.

Triple Crown Winner Photo Gallery

The LA Times posted a very nice photo slideshow showing the Triple Crown winners. You might want to view this before the newspaper takes the link down.

Belmont Results

Belmont 2008

Order of Finish

1. Da' Tara
2. Denis of Cork
3. Anak Nakal
3. Ready's Echo
5. Macho Again
6. Tale of Ekati
7. Guadalcanal
8. Icabad Crane
9. Big Brown

Successes: I correctly pegged Denis of Cork and Ready's Echo. They finished in exactly the places I predicted. Also I pretty much pegged places 5,6,7,8...just flip my last two up to the top of the board and move the others down.

Surprises:
1. Big Brown...This is one where the information was out there to be digested, but it had become too difficult to act upon. Big Brown is not bred for distance. The Derby 1 1/4 mile should have been a stretch for him, but he finished both the Derby and Preakness galloping out firmly. It gave people a solid reason to discount his breeding. Big Brown didn't get the Big shot last month. He had been taken off the steroid, winstrol. Could that have reduced Big Brown's endurance? Big Brown was agitated earlier in the day. He was kicking his stall and general in a state of extreme unease. Was the heat getting to him? Taken as a whole with hindsight, there was information out there to steer a person away from Big Brown....but that hype machine was so very strong.

2. Anak Nakal: I've been waiting for this son of Victory Gallop to finally show up on the board all year. Finally! I had given up on him. But "Shoeless" Nick Zito knew better.

3. Da' Tara: Where the heck did that come from? This is a horse that had never won a graded stakes race. I knew he had the pace and would likely be out front early; however, I figured he'd fade away. What I failed to give weight to was his pedigree. Being the son of Tiznow, he certainly was bred to get some distance.

Picks From One Who Knows Not What or Why

Well now that the scratch of Casino Drive is final for today's Belmont Stakes in Elmont, NY, I'll make my picks.

Here's my projected order of finish.

1. Big Brown: This horse has shown absolutely no weaknesses against the fields presented to him. Today's field looks no more threatening. The only real foe is a horse named Arrogance.

2. Denis of Cork: Denis of Cork is an intriguing horse. With Calvin "Bo-rail" replaced, I think he may end up with a better trip. Wouldn't it be ironic if Robbie Albarado sends him to the rail to draft Big Brown around the track.

3. Ready's Echo: Johnny V knows how to ride in the Belmont. This horse has improved in every race. Will he improve enough to place ahead of Macho Again and Tale of Ekati? I'm guessing yes.

4. Macho Again: Fame can be fleeting. His last effort in The Preakness was excellent and driving, but as The Annoyed Handicapper points out, Big Brown was just jogging to the finish as Macho Again gained on him. I might reconsider this horse later in the afternoon in the post parade.

5. Tale of Ekati: I go back and forth on this horse. He could very well finish second, but somehow I think he will underachieve today.

6. Guadalcanal: It wouldn't surprise me to see this horse sneak into the money. He's an unknown that apparently was blessed by local doctors . The Belmont has a way of favoring the unknown and discounted.

7. Icabad Crane: His effort in The Preakness was excellent; however, I don't see him extending that to The Belmont. A mile and a half is a long, long way.

8. Anak Nakal: The horse that has most disappointed me this year has yet another opportunity to finish in the back of the pack.

9. Da'Tara: Having a front-running style does not serve anything except granting a stalking path for Big Brown. He should be used up before they turn for home.

~Newt

Casino Drive Parked

The trainer for Casino Drive, the Japanese import and brother to Jazil and Rags to Riches, has been scratched from today's Belmont thanks to a stone bruise on his back left hoof. Meanwhile Big Brown is still set to run with his epoxied hoof.

If you are a member of our little family tournament, please adjust your picks accordingly.

Belmont Field

Here we go again. On Saturday Big Brown will attempt to beat nine other horses and become the 12th Triple Crown winner. Thirty years ago Affirmed beat Alydar by a nose to win the last Triple Crown. Since then ten other horses have come into the Belmont with a chance but failed to win this final race. Winning the Derby is hard because you need to have a good horse, a good trip through, around, or in front of the crowded field, and a lot of luck. Winning the Preakness afterwards is harder because you need a good sturdy horse, a good trip, and a bit of luck. Winning the Belmont after these first two races is hardest of all. You need to have a very sturdy, very good horse. You need a jockey who won't panic, become impatient, or fall asleep during the long race. You need a trainer who won't panic, become impatient, or fall asleep during the three weeks after the Preakness. You need some luck and a heapin' helpin' of Destiny. Big Brown appears to have all these qualities. But... you never know. That's why they make them run around the track. By the way, if that paragraph sounds familiar, it's because it's exactly what I wrote in previous years about Funny Cide and Smarty Jones. Here we go again, indeed.

As always remember the Belmont is 1 ½ miles long – a full ¼ mile (or about the length of the Churchill Downs homestretch) further than the Derby. Most of these horses will never run this far again, let alone around just two turns. This race has fooled more than one jockey into moving too soon only to realize with dismay he’s not even close to the finish. The horses are listed below along with the usual conglomeration of factoids, unsubstantiated rumors, snide observations, and half-baked statistics.



Big Brown – They’re thinking seriously about giving him a ticker tape parade in NYC if he pulls this off and things were going great until he popped a quarter crack in his left front hoof. Trainer Rick Dutrow and hoof specialist Ian McKinlay both say it is healing very well and should not be an issue for the race. Big Brown just had a bullet work Tuesday morning on the foot, so maybe we should believe them. Big Brown has quite a bit of stamina in his pedigree (and he’s Polish too). Just for my amusement I’ve compiled a Belmont winner factor for each horse which is merely the number of times a Belmont winner shows up in the first five generations of the pedigree. Big Brown leads the field this year with six Belmont winners in his family. Kent Desormeaux will be seeking to lay to rest the ghosts of his previous Triple Crown attempt aboard Real Quiet where he lost by a nose to Victory Gallop. Some people said he moved his horse too soon in that race, let’s see if he’s more patient this time.

Guadalcanal – This maiden was literally a last minute entry. Owner-trainer Fred Seitz makes no claims that he’s going to win, but he thinks his horse is a long distance specialist who could end up in the money. Guadalcanal did lose a 1 ½ mile turf race by a nose in his last out at Churchill Downs and he’s bred to run all day on his mom’s side. He has a Belmont winner factor of three. He’s a closer, so at least he won’t get in the way if he can’t keep up. He was born on Greg’s birthday. You know the last time a maiden was entered in the Belmont by an owner who merely aspired to finish in the money Nolan’s Cat finished third behind Afleet Alex.

Macho Again – He finished a nice second in the Preakness after going 5-wide into the stretch. He actually managed to close a little ground in late stretch, but of course Big Brown was practically walking by that point. After the Preakness he returned to Churchill Downs where he had one nice maintenance work last week. The pedigree is pretty light on major stamina influences and his Belmont winner factor is only one.

Denis of Cork – He’s had a nice rest since his third place finish in the Derby, and he’s had a few good workouts at Churchill Downs. He has a good race-bad race speed figure pattern and it looks like he’s due for the bad race this time. He has a new jockey in Robbie Albarado who replaces Calvin Borel. The pedigree has quite a bit of stamina, but the Belmont winner factor is only two.

Casino Drive – The Japanese horse who’s been a topic of conversation since he arrived in the U.S. earlier this spring. He won his first start in Japan by 11 ½ lengths back in February and then won the traditional Belmont prep race, the Peter Pan Stakes, by 5 ¾ lengths in May earning a speed figure comparable to Big Brown’s. His Japanese trainer has the racing media befuddled by his training methods which include two long brisk walks for the horse each day and occasional workouts that are run so slowly they aren’t even counted as timed workouts. The most notable thing about Casino Drive is he is the half brother of Rags to Riches and Jazil the last two Belmont winners. So Big Brown is not the only horse going for a Triple in the Belmont. Casino Drive’s dam, Better Than Honour, is attempting to become the only horse to produce three consecutive winners of a Triple Crown race. His pedigree also has a Belmont winner factor of five which is second best in the race.

Da’Tara – He ran second in the Barbaro Stakes on the Preakness undercard, fifth behind Macho Again in the Derby Trial, and ninth behind Big Brown in the Florida Derby. His speed figures have been gradually improving though. Shoeless Nick Zito took him up to Saratoga to train after his last race and he had a nice workout on the deep training track up there. He’s basically the only front-runner in the race, so it might be up to jockey Alan Garcia to set the pace for Big Brown. The pedigree is pretty good for 1 ¼ miles, but the really good stamina is a couple of generations back. He does have a Belmont winner factor of three.

Tale of Ekati – He returned to Belmont Park after his nice fourth place finish in the Derby. Trainer Barclay Tagg has sounded like Goldilocks when describing his horse’s workouts. The first was too fast, the second was too slow, the last one was just right. Tale of Ekati won two races at Belmont Park last year. His pedigree has a lot of stamina on his mom’s side, and he has a Belmont winner factor of two.

Anak Nakal – His name means “mischievous child” which actually sounds a lot like his trainer Shoeless Nick Zito when it comes to the Belmont. Shoeless Nick has run twenty previous horses in the race and has one win, six seconds, and two thirds. That’s almost 50% in the money. Anak Nakal ran seventh in the Derby after going 7-wide into the stretch. After the Derby Shoeless Nick stashed him up at Saratoga where the horse has had some quite nice workouts. He’s winless this year, but did win a race at Belmont last year. He’s a son of Victory Gallop who ended Real Quiet’s Triple Crown bid by a nose ten years ago. There’s more stamina in the pedigree, but he only has a Belmont winner factor of one.

Ready’s Echo – Todd Pletcher was pointing this horse toward the VA Derby in July, but decided last weekend to try the Belmont instead. Ready’s Echo closed to finish third in the Peter Pan Stakes behind Casino Drive and earned a nice speed figure. He had a couple nice workouts at Belmont after that race. Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez will try to repeat their Belmont win with Rags to Riches last year. The pedigree has some stamina in it and he’s descended from the nice mare Becky Be Good. The Belmont winner factor is two.

Icabad Crane – He was last seen closing to finish third in the Preakness. His speed figures have been improving in his last few races and he had a nice workout at Fair Hill Training Center on Monday. The pedigree looks pretty good for stamina and the Belmont winner factor is four. Jockey Jeremy Rose won the 2005 Belmont with a nicely timed ride on Afleet Alex.


There’s the field – Is it Big Brown and More Not Ready for Prime Time Players? Or is it Big Brown and the Giant-Killer? Tune into ABC on Saturday to find out.

In the 12ARFTCHC Peter Andre has a $64 lead on Jacqueline with Gordon another $82 back in third. The rest of us are bunched tightly, contemplating our strategy as we head into the far turn. Who will make a move to catch the leaders? Send me your three picks by post time on Saturday (approx. 6:25 pm), and we’ll see.

My picks will be:
Big Brown – Again, duh …
Casino Drive – I want at least one of the Triples to happen. Besides I like the power-walking training regimen.
Ready’s Echo – He seems to be an improving sort.

Once again I reserve the right to be shallow and change any of these picks if I see a pretty pony in the post parade.

Safe trips to all horses and humans.

May the horse be with you.
And also with you.
Lift up your bridle.
We lift them up to the jockey.
Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.
It is right to give him thanks and white carnations.

~The Annoyed Handicapper

The Long Shot

I loved War Emblem. 2002 was the year that I really began following horse racing with renewed vigor. I watched the Belmont that year eagerly anticipating the coronation of a new Triple Crown champ. It was a slam dunk in my mind. War Emblem had been blasting the competition after his brilliant awakening at the Illinois Derby on April 6, 2002 followed by his solid four length victory over Proud Citizen in the Kentucky Derby and even his squeaker in The Preakness over local upstart Magic Weisner.

No one gave the 70-1 long shot, Sarava, a chance. Yet Edgar Prado, Maryland racing god, picked up the mount of this Pimlico long shot and rode him to a 1/2 length win over Medaglia d'Oro.

Now six years later, another horse is awaiting the coronation after the 2008 Belmont and a new long shot has entered the field; Guadalcanal. Can the long shot magic happen again?

No Tomcito in Belmont

Tomcito will not run in the Belmont due to a "reaction." This saddens me.




Notice Tomcito's move in the home stretch of this mile and a half race. Street Sense's brother sure looked special that day.

Preakness Results

Greetings all,

Sorry for the delay in sending out the Preakness results for the 12ARFTCHC. I was in Atlanta last weekend for a foundry convention, and I’m still trying to catch up. I was at the convention all day on Saturday, but I made it back to my hotel room just as the horses were entering the Preakness starting gate. I guess you could say the race went pretty much according to plan. Big Brown breaks from the gate. Big Brown tucks in at the rail. Desormeaux does a little bobbing and weaving to establish position outside of the leaders down the backstretch. Big Brown ranges up beside the leaders on the far turn. Desormeaux begins to urge Big Brown. I blink at the wrong moment, and when I open my eyes Big Brown is three lengths ahead. Desormeaux does some rather awkward moves checking for pursuers, and I scream, “Don’t fall off, you idiot!” Big Brown eases across the finish line with his big brown ears flopping, and it’s on to Belmont.

Final order of finish:

Big Brown

Macho Again

Icabad Crane

Racecar Rhapsody

Stevil

Kentucky Bear

Hey Byrn

Giant Moon

Tres Borrachos

Yankee Bravo

Gayego

Riley Tucker

Here are the race comments from the Equibase chart:

BIG BROWN was taken in hand along the inside nearing the first turn, brushed with RILEY TUCKER approaching the backstretch, was wrangled back and angled five wide leaving the three quarter pole, stalked the leaders under confident handling while continuing wide, lodged a bid mid way on the final turn, charged to the front in upper stretch, moved clear under urging nearing the eighth pole then was taken in hand through the final sixteenth. MACHO AGAIN saved ground early, advanced between rivals nearing the half mile marker, steadied when in traffic mid way on the turn, angled out nearing the quarter pole, swung five wide entering the stretch and continued on willingly to gain the place. ICABAD CRANE settled along the inside, commenced a rail run leaving the far turn, steadied when lacking room on the turn, angled out near the quarter pole, split horses in upper stretch and closed late to gain a share. RACECAR RHAPSODY saved ground to the half mile marker, angled out and moved between rivals near the three eighths pole, altered course six wide at the top of the lane, continued his run to mid stretch then flattened out. STEVIL raced two wide in mid pack, bumped with RACECAR RHAPSODY on the far turn, advanced three wide between rivals to reach contention on the turn then failed to sustain his bid. KENTUCKY BEAR stumbled at the break, lost ground four wide entering the backstretch, altered course to the inside nearing the half mile pole, made a sharp move along the rail leaving the far turn, checked behind a wall of horses in upper stretch, angled to the four path then finished evenly. HEY BYRN was four wide chasing the pace along the backstretch, remained a factor to the quarter pole then steadily tired thereafter. GIANT MOON settled in mid pack while well off the rail, chased the leaders five wide down the backstretch, swung eight wide leaving the quarter pole then lacked a late response. TRES BORRACHOS stumbled badly at the break, checked repeatedly in the opening quarter mile, swung wide nearing the quarter pole but failed to reach contention. YANKEE BRAVO devoid of speed while saving ground throughout and lacked the needed response when called upon. GAYEGO leaned in and bumped with GIANT MOON leaving the gate, was hustled up to gain a clear early advantage, set the pace in hand down the backstretch, dueled from the far turn to the head of the stretch, gave way and was not abused late. RILEY TUCKER brushed with the winner nearing the backstretch, stalked the pace two to three wide, moved to challenge leaving the three eighths, gained a brief lead between rivals mid way on the final turn then stopped leaving the three sixteenths marker.

In the 12ARFTCHC Peter again had the exacta and has opened a lead over Jacqueline. Gordon and Brenda each had the exacta and are attempting to keep pace with the leader. The rest of us are diddling around at the back, dreaming of a Silky Sullivan type finish. Don’t know what that means? Check out YouTube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FT_YxcoDhtY

Here are the current totals in our contest.

[Click on Charts to Enlarge Them]

Big Brown is awaiting his chance in the Belmont spotlight. He’s dealing with a small complication right now since he’s developed a quarter crack on one foot, but his hoof specialist, Ian McKinlay, says it is healing well. Big Brown jogged around the track yesterday and was out for a gallop today. Trainer Rick Dutrow says he looks great and doesn’t seem concerned about any lost training time. As of now his Belmont competition looks to be a mix of new faces and familiar foes. Anak Nakal, Japanese star Casino Drive, Denis of Cork, Icabad Crane, Macho Again, Tale of Ekati, and Peruvian Wonder Horse Tomcito are all probable starters and Behindatthebar may join in as well.

So now we wait for June 7th.

In the meantime, may the Big Brown horse be with you.

~The Annoyed Hadicapper

Patience Grasshopper

The Annoyed Handicapper will be along in a few days with results from our little contest. Be patient. It must be complicated.

Preakness Picks

Here’s my look at the Preakness field. I’ve taken a line from The Annoyed Handicapper and carefully crafted my own original thoughts. All odds are morning line odds from Friday, but I believe the odds on Big Brown are now something like 3-10.

Macho Again (20-1) – Won the Derby Trial three weeks ago and earned a nice speed figure.

This is an intriguing long shot. His performance in the Derby Trial was …nice. (I have a hard time writing that word without thinking of one of my favorite South Park scenes… I know it doesn’t really fit the situation, but it is …nice.)

Tres Borrachos (30-1) - He ran 3^rd behind Gayego in the Arkansas Derby five weeks ago.

I watched that race and was not impressed.

Icabad Crane (30-1) – He’s the only horse in the race who has run at Pimlico. He won the traditional Preakness prep race, the Tesio Stakes, 4 weeks ago after prevailing in a tough stretch duel.

Home course merits consideration. But there is too much to overcome.

Yankee Bravo (15-1) In his last race he was 4^th behind Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby. Before that he was 3^rd behind Pyro in the LA Derby.

This horse has been disappointing me all year. I fully expected a better effort in the Santa Anita, but he didn’t deliver. He’s an all-American out of the money finisher.

Racecar Rhapsody (30-1)–He’s finished 4^th in his last 3 races behind Z Humor, Adriano, and Behindatthebar among others.

He finished far behind horses that finished far behind Big Brown.

Big Brown (1-2) – The Derby winner has been taking it easy at Churchill Downs – jogging, an occasional gallop, nothing too strenuous.

Beyond Chalk. Big Brown won me over in the Derby. With only four races under his belt, he’s proven to be a true force against a weak class.

Kentucky Bear (15-1) –. Last out, Kentucky Bear finished 3^rd in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Monba after going 9 wide into the stretch.

The Blue Grass was perhaps the most bizarre race of the year. Watch the move by Stevil in the stretch. He just came up empty. KB was strong but couldn’t match the two horses that lost to Big Brown in the Derby.

Stevil (30-1) –In his last race he was 4^th in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Monba and Kentucky Bear after a troubled trip.

Watch the move by Stevil in the stretch. He just came up empty. Heard that before? I’m wondering if Stevil gets a clear trip if he can be more of a factor. That being said. The Bluegrass was 1 1/8. The Preakness is slightly longer (1 3/16). Stevil gave everything he had at 1 mile and had nothing more. How much did the bad trip take out of him?

Riley Tucker (30-1) - He does have improving speed figures and finished a nice 3^rd behind Behindatthebar in the Lexington Stakes last out.

If he had a Z in his name it would be Zero Factor.

Giant Moon (30-1) – He ran a game 4^th behind Tale of Ekati in the Wood Memorial after pressing the pace. That was 7 weeks ago and he has been training well at Belmont Park since then, including a bullet work on Tuesday.

I want to like this horse. He ran a very strong 4^th in the Wood. That was another unusual race…fast, with a rabbit pushing War Pass to speedy fractions. Tale of Ekati came on to nip him at the wire. Court Vision just got a head in front of Giant Moon at the line as well. This is a sleeper horse.

Gayego (8-1) –They wanted to give him some recovery time after his 17^th place Derby finish in which he shied away from the crowd going past the stands the first time and ended up running over top of several other horses.

I didn’t think he was that impressive in the Arkansas Derby and he proved that by slinking in in 17^th place in the Derby. He did have an outside post, but so did Big Brown. I just don’t see him suddenly become better than he’s shown.

Hey Byrn (20-1) – He won the Holy Bull Stakes at the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles in his last start.

No respect. Nobody respects this horse. He was a favorite in the Florida Derby, but was bombed by Big brown losing by over 17 lengths. He looked excellent, however, in his last race, The Holy Bull (Now raced on the undercard on Arkansas Derby day at Oaklawn). Can he recapture his early unproven praise?

So here’s my projected order of finish:

1. Big Brown

2. Giant Moon

3. Kentucky Bear

4. Hey Byrn

5. Stevil

6. Gayego

7. Macho Again

8. The rest

Like others, I reserve the right to change my picks right up until post.

~Newt

Late Scratch

Behindatthebar has scratched from the Preakness tomorrow due to a bruised foot. Todd will need to go take in an Oriole game.

If you picked this horse in our little contest, you'll need to email the Annoyed One with a new pick.

Preakness Field

Greetings all,

It’s Preakness time again, but this year’s field seems a bit different than usual. You know how I usually include in this write up the Ogden Nash quote, "The Derby is a race of aristocratic sleekness, for horses of birth to prove their worth to run in the Preakness?" Well, apparently the vast majority of the Derby field didn't get the memo about continuing on to the Preakness. The Preakness race field consists of two Derby horses and 11 new faces. More and more the Triple Crown Trail seems like those years where the Saturday Night Live cast has one talented comic and the rest of the cast are just taking up space. Yeah, I think we may be looking at Big Brown and the Not Ready for Prime Time Players this year. Of course that doesn't guarantee Big Brown will win. Just think about last year. How was Street Sense going to lose? Then Curlin came along to nip him at the wire. In 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus was the surest Triple Crown lock there had ever been. He lost to Red Bullet in the Preakness. Even when you know, you never know.

I've listed the entries and the usual factoids and unsubstantiated opinions about each of the horses below. Remember the race at Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore is 1 3/16 miles long – slightly shorter than the Derby. While Pimlico is often thought to favor early speed horses, closers often do well in the Preakness too. Weather forecasts are calling for rain showers on Friday, but clearing skies and wind on Saturday. The track should be fast by Preakness post time of 6:15 PM.

Saturday's Preakness Stakes Entries & Post Positions

[Click on chart for larger image]

Macho Again – Won the Derby Trial three weeks ago and earned a nice speed figure. In his only start longer than a mile he ran 7^th behind Adriano in the Lane’s End on the fake dirt at Turfway Park. His connections didn't actually decide to run in the Preakness until this past Sunday. He might like a little moisture in the track since his fastest workout came on a muddy track. His preferred running style is to stalk the pace. Trainer Dallas Stewart was an assistant to D. Wayne Lukas during many of Wayne’s 5 Preakness victories. French ex patriot jockey Julien Leparoux has the mount.

Tres Borrachos - His name is Spanish for “three drunks.” He’s winless in 3 starts this year, and has a total of 1 lifetime win. He does have steadily improving, if somewhat unspectacular, speed figures in his last few races. He ran 3^rd behind Gayego in the Arkansas Derby five weeks ago. Since that race he’s had some nice workouts at Churchill Downs. He should be one of the frontrunners in the race. He’s a Polish horse and has some nice stamina sources, including Triple Crown winner, Affirmed, in his pedigree.

Icabad Crane – He’s the only horse in the race who has run at Pimlico. He won the traditional Preakness prep race, the Tesio Stakes, 4 weeks ago after prevailing in a tough stretch duel. His speed figures do show an up and down pattern and it looks like we’re due for a downer this time. He is stabled at the Fair Hill Training Center in MD which is about an hour’s drive from Pimlico. Trainer Graham Motion will van the horse over to the track on Saturday morning. He’s a closer, so look for him to put in a big run from the back of the pack. He’s also won on a muddy track.

Yankee Bravo – In his last race he was 4^th behind Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby. Before that he was 3^rd behind Pyro in the LA Derby. He’s been stabled in California all spring and shipped into Pimlico on Wednesday. He’s had some nice workouts lately, particularly his last one which was a nice long 7 furlong work in a good time. He’s another closer and does seem to possess a pretty decent closing kick. He actually began his career in England last year before he was bought by his current owners.

Behindatthebar – He won the Lexington Stakes on Keeneland’s fake dirt 4 weeks ago with a good closing move. He could have run in the Derby, but his connections felt that the Derby would have given him too many races in too short a time, so they waited for the Preakness. He’s only raced on real dirt once and he finished 5^th behind Tres Borrachos among others. He’s been training on real dirt at Belmont Park lately and doing well. The pedigree is a little on the speedy side, but there’s some stamina on his mom’s side. Todd Pletcher only has one horse in the race instead of his usual 4 or 5, so I’ll be curious to see how he passes the time in the saddling area – crossword puzzles, Sudoku, video games on his cellphone?

Racecar Rhapsody – He’s another one of the entrants who is winless this year and possesses only one lifetime win. He’s finished 4^th in his last 3 races behind Z Humor, Adriano, and Behindatthebar among others. He does have some nice workouts at Churchill Downs since his last race. He’s one who might really like a muddy track. Jockey Robbie Albarado won last year on Curlin. Owner Jerry Carroll also owns the Kentucky Speedway and includes a checkered flag motif in his racing silks.

Big Brown – The Derby winner has been taking it easy at Churchill Downs – jogging, an occasional gallop, nothing too strenuous. He arrived at Pimlico on Wednesday evening, Rick Dutrow plans to blow him out a couple of furlongs (a fast ¼ mile workout) on Saturday morning. That’s some old school training right there. He did blow him out 3 furlongs a couple of days before the Derby too. Some trainers say it opens up a horse’s lungs and gets them on their toes. Dutrow has managed to simultaneously say his horse is invincible against the rest of the nags in the race, and give him an excuse that he’s coming back after only two weeks rest and might bounce. Political spinmeisters got nothing on him. This will be a homecoming for Dutrow who grew up on the Maryland tracks working for his father, successful trainer Dick Dutrow. Kent Desormeaux is a former Maryland Riding God himself.

Kentucky Bear – Big Brown aside, connections of all the horses have made no bones about the fact they are basically running in the race for the second place money. Kentucky Bear’s trainer, Reade Baker, is a notable exception. I quote, “Let’s not put Big Brown in the Hall of Fame too soon,” Baker said. “He was the best of the horses in the Derby, and the filly gave him a heckuva run. He beat those horses, but it certainly doesn't make him better than anyone else (in the Preakness).” Strong words from the trainer of a horse with 1 win in 3 lifetime starts. Last out, Kentucky Bear finished 3^rd in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Monba after going 9 wide into the stretch. He does have the appearance of an improving horse though. He’s also been in residence at Pimlico longer than any of the other horses, having arrived almost 2 weeks ago. He’s gotten in a nice workout over a sloppy track while he’s been there, but his pedigree might be a little light on stamina.

Stevil – He’s another of the “winless this year and possesses only one lifetime win” brigade. In his last race he was 4^th in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Monba and Kentucky Bear after a troubled trip. “Shoeless” Nick Zito has kept him stabled at Churchill Downs and he’s had some decent workouts. John Velazquez will be his 5^th different jockey in 7 total starts. He might like mud. His name rhymes with “weevil” which I think is a bit unfortunate as it conjures up visions of destructive pests and Virginia Tech AD Jim Weaver.

Riley Tucker - Ahmed Zayat left his “Z” horses at home for the Preakness and instead entered a horse named after trainer Bill Mott’s son. I’m not sure if that means anything other than the fact that at least I won’t keep mixing the horse up with a similarly named stablemate as I type this. OK, you can all say it with me this time, “he’s winless this year and possesses only one lifetime win.” He does have improving speed figures and finished a nice 3^rd behind Behindatthebar in the Lexington Stakes last out. He appears to be willing to run up front or lay off the pace. He also might move up on a wet track. Former Maryland Riding God, Edgar Prado, will be inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame this summer.

Giant Moon – He ran a game 4^th behind Tale of Ekati in the Wood Memorial after pressing the pace. That was 7 weeks ago and he has been training well at Belmont Park since then, including a bullet work on Tuesday. His speed figures have been improving (if you throw out the really low fig he got running in the fog at Aqueduct where he finished 9^th in the Gotham behind Visionaire.) Trainer Richard Shosberg wasn’t happy with the outside post position. He’s worried his horse will have to run too fast too early to get position on the Clubhouse Turn. Jockey Ramon Dominguez is another Former Maryland Riding God and knows Pimlico well.

Gayego – His connections didn't decide to run until this past Tuesday. They wanted to give him some recovery time after his 17^th place Derby finish in which he shied away from the crowd going past the stands the first time and ended up running over top of several other horses. After that he pretty much lost interest in the whole process. Can’t say as I blame him, but he’s feeling good now and he gets another chance to validate his nice Arkansas Derby win. Look for him to try to get position near the front, but it will be difficult from his outside post position.

Hey Byrn – He won the Holy Bull Stakes at the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles in his last start. Before that he was a distant 4^th behind Big Brown in the Florida Derby after being bumped hard at the start. Trainer Eddie Plesa says Hey Byrn has tactical speed that he can use to get position going into the Clubhouse Turn. Hey Byrn made the 20 hour van ride from Calder Race Track in Miami on May 12. Originally he was going to run in the Ohio Derby, but owner Beatrice Oxenberg will celebrate her 87^th birthday on Friday with family in the Baltimore area and decided to combine that with watching her horse run on Saturday. Hey Byrn is named for her late husband, Bernie.

There’s the field – Big Brown and the Not Ready For Prime Time Players.

Don't forget to check the ARFTCHC blog. Thom will be posting his analysis, and I’ll post these field notes on it. You guys can post your comments and picks there for everyone to see too. You’ll find the blog at http://arftchc.blogspot.com/ .

In the 12ARFTCHC Jacqueline and Peter Andre have the lead on the rest of us who are bunched tightly as we head down the backstretch. Who will make a move to catch the leaders? Send me your three picks by post time on Saturday (approx. 6:15 pm), and we’ll see.

My picks will be:

Big Brown – well, duh …

Giant Moon – lacking any other inspiration I look to the heavens

Yankee Bravo – maybe he’ll improve on real dirt

I reserve the right to be shallow and change any of these picks if I see a pretty pony in the post parade.

May the horse be with you.

And also with you.

Lift up your bridle.

We lift them up to the jockey.

Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.

It is right to give him thanks and painted daisies.

~The Annoyed Handicapper