Thinking Out Loud

Thinkin
g OUt Loud


I'm beginning to get all itchy about the Kentucky Derby. As race day approaches, I find myself going through various combinations. Here's my latest thinking.

From Bloodhorse:

3YO GRADED EARNINGS
Horse		Earnings
1	Street Sense	$1,482,000
2	Scat Daddy	$1,308,500
3	Circular Quay	$1,116,134
4	Curlin	$780,000
5	Nobiz Like Shobiz	$778,500
6	Great Hunter	$752,500
7	Stormello	$642,900
8	Dominican	$498,484
9	Tiago	$450,000
10	Cowtown Cat	$437,253
11	Hard Spun	$360,000
12	Storm in May	$227,500
13	Zanjero	$205,000
14	Xchanger	$202,890
15	Any Given Saturday	$177,969
16	Liquidity	$161,200
17	Cobalt Blue	$150,000
18	Sam P.	$146,500
19	Sedgefield	$127,500
20	Teuflesberg	$122,942
21	Imawildandcrazyguy	$104,000
22	Chelokee	$100,000
23	Reporting for Duty	$100,000
24	Starbase	$93,106
25	Delightful Kiss	$83,000

Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin stand out to me as the horses to beat.

Street Sense has been a monster. His BC Juvenile win was most impressive. His last race was a loss to Dominican, but I toss out that race since it was a ridiculous race on Keeneland's plodding poly track. I know that some people believe in the BCJuvenile jinx, but that horse I saw that day was amazing. Couple that with the fact that Street Sense just put in a very strong bullet work on the 24th at CD, and you may understand why I've chosen as I have.

Hard Spun is a horse that intrigues me. 6 career races. 5 career wins. The knock on him now is that his trainer is over-thinking his pre-Derby plans. Maybe, but again 6 races. 5 career wins.
Hard Spun is the last of the great Danzig’s sons. Last year, the owner of Hard Spun Stable in our little family contest sold me on a horse named Barbaro. This year, he spoke highly of Hard Spun. In a twenty horse field, that's as good an angle as any other.

Curlin had an impressive romp in the Arkansas Derby on April 7. You owe it to yourself to watch the video replay of that race on the Bloodhorse.com site. It was only his third race. No doubt he's a late comer to the scene. People are talking about this horse, his rapid improvement. He still hasn't really been tested, though. He could be the next in the line of recent Derby winners who have taken different routes to the big race; War Emblem and Smarty Jones come to my mind first.

There are lots of other horses to seriously consider. You don't get in this race unless you have credentials. You can make a legitimate case for any horse in the top ten graded earnings list plus Any Given Saturday.

But I'll stick with my top three for now. The Annoyed Handicapper will be checking in here any day now. After reading her take, I may change my mind a bit.

Congratulations!

Congratulations are in order for Clifton Pond Stables. Rebecca R, chief trainer, has landed the project of a lifetime. She will head up the department that will turn the entire Daily Racing Form collection into a searchable database. This, indeed, is the project of a lifetime! Cheers!

In the House

ARFTCHC would like to welcome a most respected voice to our team, The Annoyed Handicapper.

For those who don't know, The Annoyed Handicapper has been bringing a unique vision and system to whatever The Annoyed Handicapper does for a long time.


Due to events at the home school on April 16, a report was not posted here last week. Frankly, talking about the sport of kings didn't seem appropriate during that dark time. Things are getting back to whatever normal may be now, so it's time to move on.

In our contest, we had a change at the top. Antilles, as predicted, made a run at the lead and captured it. Can the lead be held? Will Benden Weyr or Apache_Rose_Peacock fight back? Or will another stable come charging from the back? Who knows? Only the Shadow.

League Rank	Score	Stable Name	Player
1	193	Antilles Stable	Elizabeth R
2	181	Benden Weyr	Thomas R
3	180	Apache_Rose_Peacock	Andrew R
4	161	Clifton Pond Stable	Rebecca R
5	148	SCHANUCI	John R
6	88	Hard Spun	John W
7	80	Lucky Farm	Amy R

There are only two races left in our contest.

4/28	Derby Trial		Churchill Downs	$100,000	7 1/2 f
5/5	KENTUCKY DERBY	I	Churchill Downs	$2,000,000	1 1/4m

Derby Trial S.

7 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000

Post #	Horse	Jockey
1	Bwana Bull	Guidry M
2	U D Ghetto	Borel C H
3	Flying First Class	Melancon L
4	Awesome Hero	Mena M
5	Teuflesberg	Castanon J L
6	Izzie's Halo	Bridgmohan S X
7	Bold Start	Albarado R J
8	Ceasers March	Theriot H J II
9	Danny Sez	Mojica O
10	Barkley Sound	Lanerie C J
11	Carnacks Choice	Leparoux J R
12	Wafi City	Jara F
13	Out of Gwedda	Velazquez J R
14	Prom Shoes	Nakatani C S

The Derby Trial is poised to be an interesting race for our little group. Personally, I know of several promising horses running: Bwana Bull, Izzie's Halo, Out of Gwedda, and Teuflesberg. While personally, I'm rooting for Johnny V's Out of Gwedda, I expect Bwana Bull and Teuflesberg to battle it out. Then again, I'm not The Annoyed Handicapper.


Look for the first Annoyed Handicapper Derby preview soon.

Nip and Tuck

This is a real moving and shaking weekend in our little competition. Benden Weyr clings to a fragile lead with an interesting weekend ahead. The Blue Grass Stakes may draw most of the hyped horse, but our little contest will be decided by what happens at Oaklawn. The stable that owns that track, will take the lead. I look for Antilles Stable to make their move.

League Rank	Score	Stable Name	Player
1	174	Benden Weyr	Thomas
2	173	Apache_Rose_Peacock	Andrew
3	164	Antilles Stable	Elizabeth
4	154	Clifton Pond Stable	Rebecca
5	141	SCHANUCI	John R
6	88	Hard Spun	John W
7	80	Lucky Farm	Amy

4/14	Toyota Blue Grass	I	Keeneland	$750,000	1 1/8m	ESPN
4/14	Arkansas Derby	II	Oaklawn	$1,000,000	1 1/8m	ESPN
4/14	Northern Spur Breeders’ Cup		Oaklawn	$100,000	1 mile	HRTV

A Look at the races...

Keeneland - April 14th, 2007 - Race 9 Toyota Blue Grass S. - Grade: 1 Estimated Local Post Time: 5:46 PM
Race Type: Stakes Breed: Thoroughbred Age Restriction: Three Year Old				Purse: $750,000 Distance: One And One Eighth Miles Surface: All Weather Track
Post	Horse Name	Age	Sex	Weight	Jockey Name
1	Zanjero (KY)	3	Colt	123	Garrett K. Gomez
2	Dominican (KY)	3	Gelding	123	Rafael Bejarano
3	Love Dubai (KY)	3	Colt	123	Miguel Mena
4	Street Sense (KY)	3	Colt	123	Calvin H. Borel
5	Time Squared (NY)	3	Colt	123	Julien R. Leparoux
6	Teuflesberg (KY)	3	Colt	123	Edgar S. Prado
7	Great Hunter (PA)	3	Colt	123	Corey S. Nakatani

The Blue Grass is not loaded like it was slated to be a couple of weeks ago. However, there is a group of four horses that stand above the rest. Street Sense should be at the top of the list in my opinion. He's my pick for this race. Great Hunter could challenge as could Zanjero and Teuflesberg. I'll add more about this race as we get closer to post. Look for an update Thursday.

Oaklawn Park - April 14th, 2007 - Race 11 Arkansas Derby - Grade: 2 Estimated Local Post Time: 5:47 PM
Race Type: Stakes Breed: Thoroughbred Age Restriction: Three Year Old				Purse: $1,000,000 Distance: One And One Eighth Miles Surface: Dirt
Post	Horse Name	Age	Sex	Weight	Jockey Name
1	Delightful Kiss (FL)	3	Gelding	118	Russell A. Baze
2	Curlin (KY)	3	Colt	122	Robby Albarado
3	Officer Rocket (GB)	3	Colt	122	Luis S. Quinonez
4	Going Ballistic (FL)	3	Colt	122	M. Clifton Berry
5	Flying First Class (CA)	3	Colt	118	Terry J. Thompson
6	Storm in May (FL)	3	Colt	122	Juan C. Leyva
7	Olympic Chief (KY)	3	Colt	118	Gen Kato
8	Slew by Slew (KY)	3	Gelding	122	Donald R. Pettinger
9	For You Reppo (KY)	3	Colt	118	Kent J. Desormeaux
10	Deadly Dealer (FL)	3	Colt	118	John R. Velazquez

The mighty Curlin may have found a race he can win. Look for Officer Rocket to provide the main challenge; however, For You Reppo and Deadly Dealer could sneak in. More later.

Oaklawn Park - April 14th, 2007 - Race 7 Northern Spur Breeders' Cup S. - Grade: Estimated Local Post Time: 3:30 PM
Race Type: Stakes Breed: Thoroughbred Age Restriction: Three Year Old				Purse: $100,000 Distance: One Mile Surface: Dirt
Post	Horse Name	Age	Sex	Weight	Jockey Name
1	Harrow Land (KY)	3	Gelding	117	Terry J. Thompson
2	Front Court (KY)	3	Gelding	117	Eusebio Razo, Jr.
3	St. Zarb (LA)	3	Gelding	122	Luis S. Quinonez
4	Sumac (KY)	3	Colt	115	Belen Quinonez
5	Speedway (KY)	3	Colt	119	Russell A. Baze
6	Takedown (KY)	3	Colt	122	Robby Albarado
7	Mr. Soul (ON)	3	Colt	117	Seth B. Martinez
8	Run Alex Run (KY)	3	Colt	117	Stewart Elliott

Here's the race that could bust the contest open. While most won't have any of these horses in their stable, some may have attractive trainer and jockey combination. I would not be surprised if Antilles Stable has Robby Albarado. If so, then Takedown could be their ticket to riches.

By a Carrot

Entering the fresh weekend of races, the fantasy race has turned fantastic. Benden Weyr clings to a meager lead by a carrot over the spunky Apache_Rose_Peacock stable. There is some distance between second and the rest of the field, but in this game, such distances are easily covered.

League Rank	Score	Stable Name	Player
1	147	Benden Weyr	Thomas
2	146	Apache_Rose_Peacock	Andrew
3	118	SCHANUCI	John R
4	117	Clifton Pond Stable	Rebecca
5	112	Antilles Stable	Elizabeth
6	73	Hard Spun	John W
7	40	Lucky Farm	Amy

This weekend is absolutely loaded with races.

4/7	Bay Shore	III	Aqueduct	$150,000	7f	TVG
4/7	Wood Memorial	I	Aqueduct	$750,000	1 1/8m	ESPN
4/7	Illinois Derby	II	Hawthorne	$500,000	1 1/8m	HRTV
4/7	Lafayette		Keeneland	$100,000	7f	TVG
4/7	Santa Anita Derby	I	Santa Anita	$750,000	1 1/8m	NBC

If you click on the links, you will see the past performances for each of the entered horses. Lets take a look at each of the races, shall we?

The Bay Shore
Personally, I wish I got TVG so that I could watch Hobbitontherocks race. That's got to be a semi-finalist in the coolest name category. It's almost like some really funky smelling fermented beverage. Les Grands Trois may be the horse to beat.


The Wood Memorial
Thankfully, this race is on ESPN. I can't wait to hear Kenny Mayne talk about Invasor's great victory in Dubai last weekend, and I'm sure he will enjoy tracking the horse Reptilian Smarts in the Wood. I see four horses in this race. Nobiz Like Shobiz, the red hot Cowtown Cat, Summer Doldrums, and Any Given Saturday. The last horse on that list should win, but you never know. Beware of the sneaky Doldrums.

The Illinois Derby
Here's what I'm reading about this race. It gets more interesting by the moment. The following horses are rumored to be running in this race.

• Cobalt Blue

• Cowtown Cat

• Bold Start

• Catman Running

• Freesgood

• Family Talk

• Love Dubai

• Quite Acceptable

Looking at this race, I'm immediately noting that Pletcher's horse, Cowtown Cat is most likely going to skip the Wood and enter here. If that happens, I'd put him as the favorite. Merv's Cobalt (colored eyes) Blue is traveling from out west to Hawthorne. He should run a strong race. Also keep an eye out for Catman Running.

The Lafayette
I've never been to Keeneland to watch a race before, but I'm sure they sell food. If I was there, I'd be in line to get one of those Polish sausages during this race. Before I'd get in line I'd place a $2 bet on Out of Gwedda (named after either some exotic location or some kind of alien birthing) simply because jockey Garrett Gomez flew all the way back from Dubai to visit Keeneland. I suppose if I was there, I'd take a ride with Rene Douglas on Silver Express.

The Santa Anita Derby
Boutrous, Boutrous by golly, is entered in this race! In addition, there is a very strong field of western horses battling.Four stand out in my mind: Sam P, Bwana Bull, King of Roxy, and Liquidity. I'm thinking King of Roxy will win, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Bwana Bull or any of the four for that matter. Liquidity had a lot of hype early in the season, but has yet to 'splode. Time is running out for him. There's also a bit of mystery in the race with Medici Code, a Great Britain horse, entered in the race.

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Enjoy