"Runnin'Mother": A Preakness Review

“That is a runnin' mother.” Calvin Borel in the jockeys' room after the Preakness.

That pretty much sums up the Preakness. Rachel Alexandra outran the speed and held off the closers in an impressive performance. It was all the more impressive when Calvin Borel stated after the race that Rachel Alexandra had difficulty handling the track and we hadn't seen her best effort in the race. I thought the most interesting part of the race was watching Rachel Alexandra in the lead down the backstretch. If you can find a replay watch her ears. She's running with her ears pricked, but she has one ear swiveling around to track Big Drama to her inside while the other ear is tracking Friesan Fire to her outside. She knew exactly where her competition was and she wasn't about to let them go by. Too bad we won't get to see a repeat performance in the Belmont next week. Her connections announced Friday that she will skip that race in favor of some R & R. She's also taking advantage of the downtime to pose for a photo spread to run in the August issue of Vogue. I'm not sure what a Vogue photo shoot of a horse will entail – artfully draped saddle towels? Provocative poses involving leather bridles and hay bales? The mind boggles.

Meanwhile Preakness runner up Mine That Bird continues to prepare for the Belmont. Rachel's vacation did allow Calvin Borel the opportunity to get back on his Derby winner. Mike Smith already had a commitment to ride a horse in a California stakes race on Belmont day. He also rides the fabulous race mare, Zenyatta, for the same connections, so he's not about to screw up that arrangement even to ride a Derby winner in the Belmont. Now we have the unlikely prospect of a jockey going for a Triple Crown by riding two different horses. It's been that kind of year.

Some other familiar faces will return for the Belmont - Dunkirk, Summer Bird, Chocolate Candy, and Mr. Hot Stuff from the Derby, and maybe Flying Private as well. Meanwhile Nick Zito has a couple more under the radar horses stashed up at his training facility in Saratoga. So hang on folks we're not done with the drama yet.

In the 13ARFTCHC several people had the Preakness exacta and have overtaken Joey to form a lead pack. There's another pack bunched closely behind. You can find your results in the chart below.

I'll be back later this week with the entries and post positions for the Belmont Stakes. Until then May the horse be with you.

~The Annoyed Handicapper

Douglas Injured in Tragic Spill

Rene Douglas is a name quite familiar to Virginia racing fans. He's appeared at Colonial Downs quite often over the years. My recollection is that after races as I'd play the role of that annoying geek standing along the rail looking for an autograph, he'd stop by and chat with me about the race.

I sure hope that he can recover from this accident that most likely has taken his career. I also hope that Jamie Theriot can overcome the anguish he must feel over his role in this unfortunate event.

Theriot was on the rail, and he nudged his horse, Sky Mom, out directly into the path of Born To Be. The video shows Born To Be's head jerk madly to the left as if part of his bridle had become entangled with Theriot or Sky Mom. Born To Be immediately tumbled head over heels and landed unconscious on top of Douglas. It's sad to note that in addition to Douglas' serious injury, Born To Be had to be euthanized after the race.

Such a thrilling and dangerous sport.

If you wish, you can view the Arlington Matron at Bloodhorse. Thankfully, they don't replay the accident, but one view is horrific enough.

From The Press Democrat

DOUGLAS MIGHT NOT WALK AGAIN:

According to the Chicago Tribune's Neil Milbert, Rene Douglas, one of most accomplished jockeys in Arlington Park history, underwent seven hours of spinal surgery early Sunday morning at Northwestern Memorial Hospital and, according to his agent Dennis Cooper, a member of the surgical team of specialists said "he might never walk again."

"It doesn't look good," Cooper said Monday. "They won't be a million percent sure until the swelling goes down and that isn't expected to be until about 10 to 14 days. His fifth and sixth vertebrae were compressed, his ribs were broken and there was damage to his neck, but the main damage is to the spinal cord.

"The doctor told me he had feeling and movement in his upper body but not in his legs. They're hoping that the contusions and swelling (affecting his spinal cord) is what is causing the paralysis, but they don't think so. We're hoping for a miracle."

The six-time Arlington jockey champion sustained the injuries at the track on Saturday riding Born to Be in the Grade III Arlington Matron Handicap. Born to Be had just emerged from the stretch turn, boxed in behind the leaders, when she was bumped by Sky Mom on her inside and clipped heels with front-running Boudoir.

Born to Be fell and was knocked unconscious and rolled over onto Douglas.

The 42-year-old rider lay motionless on the track for several minutes before he was taken by ambulance to Northwest Community Hospital in Arlington Heights.

After doctors there examined him, he was placed in an induced coma, flown by helicopter to Chicago and admitted to Northwestern Memorial Hospital. Douglas' wife, Natalia, flew to Chicago from Ft. Lauderdale after learning he was seriously injured, and he was awakened from the coma so they could speak late Saturday.

Cooper said surgery began about 2:30 a.m. and continued until 9:30 a.m., with Douglas in critical condition.

Born to Be was euthanized, a track spokesman said Sunday.

Our prayers go out to Rene and his family.

The Annoyed One on The Preakness

"The Derby is a race of aristocratic sleekness, for horses of birth to prove their worth to run in the Preakness."
– Ogden Nash

Yes, it’s time for our yearly snippet of Ogden Nash verse and our visit to “Old Hilltop”, Pimlico Racecourse. Enjoy it while you can, folks. Magna Entertainment, the owner of Pimlico and several other racetracks is in bankruptcy proceedings and there are rumors the tracks will be sold and the Preakness may have to move. If this is the end of an era we’re certainly going out with a bang. We have the 50-1 Derby winner returning to prove that race was no fluke, but he’s going to have to do it without his Derby rider who has ditched him for a filly. We have the aforementioned filly who was the star of Derby weekend after winning the Kentucky Oaks by over 20 lengths. We have six other Derby horses, including the well-beaten favorite, looking to avenge their loss. And we have the usual new faces looking to make an impression.

I've listed the entries and the usual factoids and unsubstantiated opinions about each of the horses below. Remember the race at Pimlico is 1 3/16 miles long – slightly shorter than the Derby. While Pimlico is often thought to favor early speed horses, closers often do well in the Preakness too. The weather forecast currently calls for a chance of an isolated thunderstorm with highs near 80­° F.

Big Drama – He last raced 7 weeks ago when he won the Swale Stakes in a new track record, unfortunately he was DQ’d to 2^nd for bumping in the stretch. He’s never raced further than 1 1/16 miles and his pedigree might be a bit light in stamina in the closest generations. He’s only raced once this year due to an injury he sustained back in January. He’ll be racing without blinkers for the first time. He should be one of the pacesetters in the race.

Mine That Bird – He appears to have come out of his Derby win in good shape. He had a very nice workout at Churchill Downs on Monday and then got another van ride to get to Pimlico. Observers say he’s been looking really fit this week. Trainer Chip Wooley thinks that they have now found Mine That Bird’s preferred running style as a come from behind horse. Of course Calvin Borel, the jockey who piloted that brilliant come from behind trip in the Derby has dumped his Derby winner for the filly. Now admittedly he’s really just honoring the commitment he made earlier in the year to ride Rachel Alexandra in all her races, but this Derby winner-jilting sure does make for some interesting headlines. Mike Smith picks up the mount.

Musket Man – He’s been training at Monmouth Park in New Jersey since his 3^rd place finish in the Derby and he put in a bullet work there on Tuesday. He’ll be vanning to Pimlico on Saturday morning. Jockey Eibar Coa was also the regular rider for Big Drama, but decided to stick with Musket Man for the Preakness. Coa will probably try to repeat his Derby ride where he sat about midpack behind the leaders.

Luv Gov – He’s named after Eliott Spitzer, former governor of NY, who resigned after it was revealed that he was a customer of a prostitution ring. Luv Gov is trained by D. Wayne “I’ve won 5 Preaknesses and don’t you forget it” Lukas. The horse has raced 10 times, but just won for the first time in his last race. He’s never run in a stakes race and he’s never raced farther than 1 1/16 miles. His win did come on a sloppy track on the Derby Day undercard, so maybe D. Wayne is arranging for a convenient downpour as the horses come on the track Saturday. The pedigree does have plenty of stamina.

Friesan Fire – He finished 18^th in the Derby as the favorite, but he had a pretty bumpy run, stepping on his own foot and sustaining several cuts on his legs. The cuts have healed though and he posted a very sharp workout at Pimlico on Tuesday. While his pedigree has quite a bit of stamina he’s never actually won at any distance longer than 1 1/16 miles. This will be his 2^nd race back off a 7 week layoff which often means a good showing from a horse.

Terrain – Appropriately enough given his name, he’s a very well traveled horse. He’s run 8 times at 7 different tracks. He won 3 times last year, but has spent the last several months running 3^rd or 4^th to horses like General Quarters, Big Drama, Friesan Fire, and Papa Clem. Julien Leparoux rode him in his last 2 races but decided to stick with General Quarters for the Preakness. Jeremy Rose picks up the mount on Terrain. They should be closing from the back of the pack at the end of the race. The pedigree is not chock full o’ stamina, but he ought to be able to get 1 3/16 miles reasonably well.

Papa Clem – He’s been taking it easy after his 4^th place finish in the Derby. He had a rather leisurely workout at Pimlico on Tuesday but he’ll have a 1/8 mile blowout on Friday to perk him up a bit. He should be stalking just off the pace just like he did in the Derby. Trainer Gary Stute’s father, Mel, won the Preakness in 1986 with Snow Chief. Gary would love to win the race with his father watching on Saturday.

General Quarters – He came out of the Derby in great shape so owner/trainer/groom Tom McCarthy decided to head for the Preakness. After a leisurely workout at Churchill Downs on Monday he was vanned to Pimlico. Thank goodness he did because we were running the risk of having no Polish horses in the race. His speed figures have been indicating he’s on a good race – not so good race pattern and he’s due for the good race this time. Jockey Julien Leparoux is sticking with him over Terrain. Look for them to try to stay fairly close to the leaders.

Pioneerof the Nile – He finished a gritty 2^nd in the Derby after looking like he was home free at the top of the stretch. On Monday he had a very sharp workout at Churchill Downs then shipped into Pimlico. He still hasn’t raced on a dry dirt track. He’ll probably be stalking the leaders like he did in the Derby. His owner, Ahmed Zayat, along with the owner of Mine That Bird were the folks who floated the idea of entering extra horses in the race to fill out the field and exclude Rachel Alexandra. After receiving a great deal of criticism they both reconsidered.

Flying Private – Can he go from last place in the Derby to first place in the Preakness? Trainer D. Wayne “I’ve won 5 Preaknesses and don’t you forget it” Lukas seems to think it’s possible. Flying Private had a nice workout at Churchill Downs on Monday and then shipped to Pimlico. His best race was 3 back when he ran 2^nd to Hold Me Back on fake dirt. He’s actually only won 1 race in his career. His pedigree might be a little light on stamina up close, but he is a Polish horse.

Take the Points – His last race was 6 weeks ago when he ran 4^th in the Santa Anita Derby behind Pioneerof the Nile and Chocolate Candy. He’s been training well at Belmont Park for the last couple of weeks. Trainer Todd Pletcher thought about running in the Derby but decided to wait for this race instead. The pedigree has some stamina but it’s mostly 3 – 4 generations back. His dam’s name was Ginger Ginger. Former Maryland Riding God, Edgar Prado, has the mount. Look for them to be stalking the pace.

Tone It Down – There’s always a local horse. He ran 3^rd in the Frederico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico 2 weeks ago in his first stakes race. Former Maryland Riding God, Kent Desormeaux picks up the mount after the connections dumped Current Maryland Riding Demi-God, Mario Pino. Kent will be going for back to back Preakness wins. He’ll probably try to be on or near the lead with Tone It Down, but they’ll have to break sharply and get it going quickly to keep ahead of Rachel Alexandra just to their outside. His pedigree indicates he should get the distance ok.

Rachel Alexandra – She was the runaway winner of the KY Oaks two weeks ago without being asked to run by Calvin Borel. Some people think she didn’t have much competition in the race, but she beat the ones that were there by over 20 lengths. Since the Oaks she has been sold to Jess Jackson (Kendall-Jackson winery, owner of Preakness winner, Curlin) for an undisclosed amount and been transferred to a new barn with a new trainer, new groom, etc. Now she’ll be running against the boys for the first time at a longer distance than she’s raced before. That’s a lot of new stuff to deal with, but she doesn’t seem to be a horse who rattles easily. In the crowded paddock at Churchill Downs she stood quietly on Oaks day while a little girl patted her on the nose. She’s a big filly with stamina in the pedigree and a great deal of tactical speed. It will be interesting to see if Calvin tries to get her a rail trip from the far outside post position.

There’s the field. It’s the usual assortment of short-priced horses and long shots. In the 13ARFTCHC Joey has broken alertly to take the lead with the rest of us tightly bunched behind him as we head into the Clubhouse turn. Who will make a move to catch him? Send me your three picks by post time on Saturday (approx. 6:14 pm), and we’ll see. We’ll also find out if we‘ll have a Triple Crown prospect to look forward to, or maybe find out the girl’s all that. Or just maybe we’ll get another 50-1 shot to come in. Hey, the new Star Trek movie is really good so it appears long shots are paying off all over the place this month!

My picks will be:

Pioneerof the Nile – I always dance with the one what brung me.

Friesan Fire – ditto

Rachel Alexandra – I love her for her mind.

May the horse be with you.

And also with you.
Lift up your bridle.

We lift them up to the jockey.

Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.

It is right to give him thanks and painted daisies.

~The Annoyed Handicapper

I remember the night I danced with Shamans.

Here We Go

Submitted for your approval...the field.



The field has been blown apart this week with Rachel Alexandra joining the men. For a while, the boys fought the movement to include the filly, but their misgivings gradually seeped away.

Saturday, Rachel Alexandra will be able to run freely- unencumbered, liberated, relieved.

Will she leave the boys in a heaping pile in the paddock stalls?


Seriously, I can't see any horse touching the filly. If she can bounce back after the Kentucky Oaks, she should dominate. Of the others, Pioneerof the Nile has shown true consistency. Musket Man is always in the mix as is Papa Clem. Friesan Fire had a perplexing trip in the Derby. I have to seriously question bringing him to this race considering how badly he was abused in his last.

Big Drama has always had potential, but little to show. General Quarters has been inconsistent. Terrain has shown promise.

The rest? Not so much.

Relax. Dump your work load.

Go for it. It's all good.

I'm not a person who enjoys betting, but I found this short article which dissects the betting interests in the top horses to be particularly insightful.

Bet Now!

Derby Pass In Review

Results: [Click Photos to Enrage] Scroll down to read The Annoyed Handicapper's review.

[Click Photos to Enrage]

Well. I can't say I expected that outcome. Mine That Bird went off at 50-1, was bumped at the start, trailed the field and then went off to win by over six lengths after a mostly rail skimming trip. Now we'll have to look at that silly name on all future Derby glasses. It's no wonder I'm The Annoyed Handicapper (TM)! It has been fascinating to read the theories people have come up with to explain Mine That Bird's win. I've begun to come around to the "perfect storm" theory myself. I believe that Mine That Bird experienced a perfect storm of many factors that combined to create a result totally out of all proportion to their individual effects. He's a small horse, lightly built, who was possibly less likely to get bogged down on a muddy, drying out track. His rail-fixated jockey kept him mostly on the inside, an area of the track where horses seemed to be running faster throughout the day. After some initial bumping out of the gate he found himself far back and away from more contact. Many of his competitors experienced a lot of bumping and contact with several sustaining minor cuts. He'd been training in New Mexico at a much higher altitude than the rest of the horses and may have built up more red blood cells to improve stamina. Or maybe there was some other reason entirely. Just don't ask me what it was.

Anyway here's the official order of finish and the race description from the Equibase chart. Note the amount of bumping and grinding that went on. It was so bad that Friesan Fire came back with a piece of Pioneerof the Nile's leg bandage lodged in his hoof.

1. Mine That Bird
2. Pioneerof the Nile
3. Musket Man
4. Papa Clem
5. Chocolate Candy
6. Summer Bird
7. Join in the Dance
8. Regal Ransom
9. West Side Bernie
10. General Quarters
11. Dunkirk
12. Hold Me Back
13. Advice
14. Desert Party
15. Mr. Hot Stuff
16. Atomic Rain
17. Nowhere to Hide
18. Friesan Fire
19. Flying Private

Race Comments: MINE THAT BIRD unhurried for a half while far back, settled with three furlongs to go, moved with a rush along the inside on the second turn, came around ATOMIC RAIN with a quarter mile to go, quickly angled back to the inside with three sixteenths to go, moved through a small opening inside JOIN IN THE DANCE approaching the furlong marker, took over for the final furlong and drew off under steady handling. PIONEEROF THE NILE brushed at the start, prompted the pace while three wide and under a rating hold, challenged once on the second turn, battled the leaders into the stretch, gained a short lead with three sixteenths to go, could not cope with the winner just inside the final furlong, drifted out under left handed urging bumping PAPPA CLEM then weakened. MUSKET MAN lost his footing a bid at the start, recovered to race within striking distance inside, angled out three wide on the backstretch, made a six wide run late on the second turn, held on well to the final furlong, was bumped with a sixteenth to go and continued with good courage to the finish. PAPA CLEM brushed with two rivals at the start and then with DUNKIRK soon after, raced under steadying restraint around the first turn when a bit too eager, raced just behind the leader in the two path into the second turn, maintained his position into the stretch, angled out five wide with less than a quarter mile to go, was bumped by PIONEER OF THE NILE near the sixteenth marker when that one drifted out then held on well while not a menace to the winner. CHOCOLATE CANDY allowed to settled after being squeezed after the start, advanced of the inside after six furlongs, moved through traffic with less than three furlongs to go, angled out four wide into the stretch but tired in the final furlong. SUMMER BIRD unhurried early while well back, split rivals with three furlongs to go, made a good gain while seven wide into the stretch but could not sustain the bid. JOIN IN THE DANCE came in and brushed MINE THAT BIRD at the start, sprinted clear and angled in, set the pace inside, responded willingly when challenged after six furlongs, battled to the stretch and tired in the final furlong. REGAL RANSOM pressed the early leader after angling in in the run to the first turn, raced just off that one while off the inside for six furlongs, made a run at the leader when asked for his best with three furlongs to go, held on well to the stretch and gave way. WEST SIDE BERNIE outrun early along the inside, failed to respond when asked to pick up his pace, angled out five wide once in the stretch and could not threaten. GENERAL QUARTERS steadied in traffic with nine furlongs to go, failed to settle around the first turn, steadied behind rivals near the six furlong marker, angled out four wide once in the second turn, came six wide in upper stretch and failed to respond in the drive. DUNKIRK broke out and stumbled after the start, came in soon after carrying inner rivals in, steadied in traffic with nine furlongs to go, raced between rivals on the first turn, angled out a bit on the backstretch,made a mild run to the second turn and failed to continue. HOLD ME BACK, bumped and squeezed back at the start, was unhurried off the inside, made a good run along the inside down the backstretch to reach a forward position, stayed on well to the final furlong and tired. ADVICE, squeezed back at the start, was reserved early off the inside, angled out late on the first turn, steadied from between rivals with six furlongs to go, recovered, made a mild middle move while off the rail but could not sustain the bid. DESERT PARTY, bumped at the start, recovered and gained a forward position four wide into the first turn, continued four wide for a mile and tired. MR. HOT STUFF steadied when bumped and squeezed back at the start, was unhurried for six furlongs while outrun, raced four wide late on the second turn and failed to respond in the stretch. ATOMIC RAIN in tight after the start, recovered to race within striking distance near the rail, made a mild run in th e two path near into second turn then tired as the winner rallied past. NOWHERE TO HIDE hit the side of the starting gate stall, continued out to bump DESERT PARTY, brushed with GENERAL QUARTERS midway through the first turn then was finished after going six furlongs. FRIESAN FIRE, bumped and squeezed at the start, raced in traffic with a little bit better than a mile to run, angled out five wide on the backstretch, made a mild run into the second turn but faded soon after. FLYING PRIVATE, five wide into the first turn when within striking distance, held on well for five furlongs and stopped.

As for our contest no one picked Mine That Bird, but we had lots of Pioneerof the Nile backers. Joey also picked Musket Man, so he has broken sharply from the gate with the rest of us jostling and bumping behind him. Your payouts are listed in the chart above.

So, it's on to Pimlico for the Preakness Stakes on May 16. Mine That Bird, Musket Man, and Papa Clem will be there. Friesan Fire and Pioneerof the Nile might run, and there should be some new names too. Maybe even the outstanding filly, Rachel Alexandra, who won the KY Oaks with devastating ease might run. She was sold Wednesday to Jess Jackson and he might be interested in putting up the money to make her eligible for the Triple Crown races. It looks like a pretty full field no matter what. I'll be back next week with the field and comments.

Until then May the horse be with you.

~The Annoyed Handicapper

PS. After Mine That Bird wins at 50-1 here are some other long shots I'd like to see payoff:

The new Star Trek movie is actually good.

VT wins a national championship in football.

World Peace.

Picks

12:53 pm

It's a long time between now and then, but "oh my" does that track look sloppy. Calvin Borel, winner of two races already today, says that if the rain stays away, the track will dry.

I'm not so sure.


My picks for the Derby as of now:

1. Friesan Fire:
2. Papa Clem
3. Pioneerof the Nile


Others I'm still considering:

General Quarters, Musket Man, Desert Party, Chocolate Candy, and Dunkirk

The Annoyed Handicapper ponders

You can view all of our Derby previews by visiting our
Drop.io box. The password is : horse

Here are the rankings from my occasionally successful (4 winners in 12 years) Derby handicapping process. I evaluate each horse in eight different categories, with each horse being assigned a purely subjective rating between 1 and 10. Ten is the worst and 1 is the best. The eight ratings are then weighted and totaled according to a secret formula. In this system the lower the score the better. The eight categories are as follows:

1. Breeding (B) - includes not only dosage, but if I personally liked any of the horses in the pedigree or their half-siblings, cousins, stablemates,etc., and if the pedigree does *not* contain Mr. Prospector or Storm Cat.

2. Hype (H) - Bad marks if I hear a horse's/trainer's name on the local news, or if I see the horse's/trainer's name in The Roanoke Times prior to Sat. (A horse/trainer would have to be a serious hype monster to make it past the professional bass fishing/Nascar restrictor plate coverage around here.)

3. Name (N) - Would the name look good on a Derby glass? Is it a clever or poetic name? What are the headline possibilities? Negative ratings for runallthewordstogethernames. A new criterion this year is, as one blogger put it, the “most important aspect is choosing a horse whose name can be shouted without embarrassment for two minutes straight”.

4. Mystery (M) - the dark horse category. How stupefied will the pundits be if this horse wins? The more stupefied the better.

5. Karma/best story (K) - Is there some touching, funny, sad story connected to the horse and/or his connections? Are the connections old timers ala Paul Mellon/Mack Miller with Sea Hero or are they refreshing newcomers like the Funny Cide group or the Smarty Party? Have the connections won before or are they still looking for that first magical win?

6. Photos (P) - Do I have personal snapshots of the horse? Have I seen him or her run in person?

7. Annoyance (A) - How annoying will it be to me personally if this horse and/or connections win? This entire system is most successful when I weight this category the highest in the ratings. As usual I am annoyed by twenty horse fields, so I’m continuing to weight this category heavily. Not a common approach, I know, but I am "The Annoyed Handicapper."TM

8. The usual handicapping stuff (H) - you know race records, workouts, post positions, speed figs, stuff that may or may not really matter come Derby Day anyway. I will also be paying attention to wet track performance this year. There is a high likelihood of thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday, so a sloppy track is a possibility.

West Side Bernie – Ran 2nd to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on dirt last out and earned a very nice speed figure He was sixth to Hold Me Back in the Lane’s End on fake dirt 2 back. He had a nice workout at Churchill Downs last Saturday. The pedigree is pretty light on both stamina and mud performance, but he’s descended from Danzig which makes him a Polish horse. New Jersey trainer, Kelly Breen (a 5 handicap golfer), is starting his first horses in the Derby. Smarty Jones’ jockey, Stewart Elliott, has the mount.

Musket Man – Only horse in the race that’s already won two Derbies - Illinois and Tampa Bay – beating General Quarters, Join in the Dance, and Nowhere to Hide. He’s been stabled at Churchill Downs since mid-April. His workouts have been steady, if not spectacular. He’s not really bred to win at 1 ¼ miles, but he’s already outrun his pedigree by winning his last race at 1 1/8 miles. The pedigree doesn’t promise much in the way of mud performance either. His preferred running style is to hang out in mid-pack which should be possible with the speed in this race.

Mr. Hot Stuff – Ran 3rd behind Pioneerof the Nile and Chocolate Candy in the Santa Anita Derby last out. Broke his maiden at the beginning of Feb – only has one win in seven starts, but his margins of defeat are decreasing and his connections say he’s starting to put it all together. He should be one of the closers in the race. There’s lots of stamina in the pedigree and he has a good mud rating based on pedigree. I gave him a poor name rating, because Mr. Hot Stuff is a silly Disco Era name and definitely doesn’t meet the two minute yelling criterion. He’s a full brother to last year’s 6th place Derby horse, Colonel John.

Advice – Won the Lexington Stakes on Keeneland’s fake dirt two weeks ago closing from last place. That’s where I got my photo of him. He has only one dirt start; a fifth in the Sunland Derby which is not usually much of a Derby prep. He did have a nice workout at Churchill Downs on Monday. There’s lots of bumping, checking, and lugging in his running lines, possibly due to his preferred closing style. His pedigree is not particularly encouraging for either distance or mud. Trainer Todd Pletcher is now 0 for 21 starters in the Derby and one of his horses has finished last in the last three Derbies.

Hold Me Back – Was second to General Quarters in the Blue Grass last out and won the Lane’s End over Flying Private and West Side Bernie two races back. Only one dirt start – a 5th in the Remsen last year. The pedigree has lots of stamina and he gets a good mud rating. He had a good workout at Churchill on Sunday and seemed to want to keep running afterwards. This is the 25th anniversary of trainer Bill Mott’s first start in the Derby. He’s the all time leading trainer at Churchill Downs, but he’s never finished better than eighth in the Derby. Kent Desormeaux is looking for his second Derby win in a row.

Friesan Fire – He’s the first horse to win all three Fair Grounds Derby preps including the Louisiana Derby in the slop over Papa Clem. He has steadily progressing speed figures. Even though he’s never actually run past 1 1/16 miles he has good stamina in his pedigree, particularly from the antipodeans on the distaff side (translation - his mom’s family is from Australia and New Zealand). He’s coming into the KY Derby off a seven week rest after the LA Derby, but he’d been racing steadily for five months before that, so a break might not have been a bad idea. Trainer Larry Jones sent him for a mile workout a couple of weeks ago and a very fast workout on Monday – just like he did with Derby runner-up Hard Spun two years ago. Jones, owner Rick Porter, and jockey Gabriel Saez are the same connections as finished second with Eight Belles last year. Maybe there will be some good karma to come their way this year.

Papa Clem – He won the Arkansas Derby last out over Summer Bird. In the two races before that he ran second to Friesan Fire (in the slop) and Pioneerof the Nile. He’s been at Churchill Downs since mid-April where he had a slowish 7/8’s mile workout on Saturday, but then came back Thursday morning to blow out 3/8’s in 0:34 seconds. That’s an old school training technique that’s supposed to sharpen a horse’s speed for a race. Trainer Gary Stute is the latest generation in a very successful California training family. The horse is named for the late Clement Hirsch, a noted California breeder and racetrack figure and the father of owner Bo Hirsch. The pedigree has quite a bit of stamina a couple of generations back, and he’s a Polish horse too.

Mine That Bird – Finished fourth in the Sunland Derby last out to no one I’ve heard of, but he did finish ahead of Advice. He was second in the Borderland Derby before that. He arrived at Churchill Downs last week after a two day van ride. He had one slowish work at Churchill after his arrival. He began his career last year in Canada where he was named the two year old champion. His pedigree has quite a bit of stamina, but he doesn’t have a very high mud rating. I gave him a poor name rating because there are good pedigree combo names and there are bad ones. This is a bad one for a son of Birdstone – Mining My Own.

Join in the Dance – He’s more like “late to the party” after getting in the Derby field only on Monday after Quality Road had to pull out due to a sore foot. He was fifth in the Blue Grass last out behind General Quarters and Hold Me Back and second in the Tampa Bay Derby to Musket Man two back. He ran second in a race on a sloppy Churchill Downs track last spring. He appears to be one of the early speed horses in the race, but his pedigree doesn’t look too promising for lasting the entire 1 ¼ miles. There’s some stamina, but it’s 3 – 4 generations back. He does have an excellent mud rating and he’s a Polish horse.

Regal Ransom – The sheikhs from Dubai are back for the first time since their 8th place finish in the 2001 Derby. Unfortunately for them, they’re back with what amounts to their 3rd and 4th string horses after injuries to a couple of more highly touted colts. Regal Ransom is basically the 4th stringer even though he won the UAE Derby in Dubai last out over stablemate Desert Party. He finished second to Desert Party in his two previous races. He has been working very well at Churchill for the last month including a bullet work (fastest on the day at that distance) on Saturday. He may be one of the horses fighting for the early lead in the Derby. The pedigree has stamina, but it’s mostly a couple of generations back and he doesn’t have a particularly good mud rating. He was born in late May so he’s not three years old yet.

Chocolate Candy – He finished second to Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby last out. Prior to that he had won the two Northern California Derby preps. He’s never raced on real dirt, but he’s been at Churchill Downs for a couple of weeks and he’s been working well over the track, including a nice mile workout on Apr 21. He probably will try to stalk the pace from mid-pack. There’s some nice stamina influences in the pedigree including some from Argentina such as his sire, Candy Ride. The mud rating is not all that great, but so far Candy Ride has sired 57% winners on the mud albeit from a pretty small sample. There’s more than a little irony in the fact that the owner, diet plan maven Jenny Craig, named her horse Chocolate Candy.

General Quarters – This horse has a serious karma rating since he’s the sole horse in his owner/trainer/groom’s stable. Tom McCarthy is a 75 year old retired high school principal who’s been training for fifty years. He claimed General Quarters for $20,000 as a two year old after he had been unable to buy him at an auction the previous year. General Quarters won the Blue Grass Stakes on fake dirt last out over Hold Me Back, and two races back he was fifth to Musket Man and Join in the Dance in the Tampa Bay Derby. He raced three times at Churchill Downs last year with one win and a third. His pedigree might be a little iffy for the distance, but he has one of the highest mud ratings in the field and he’s Polish too. Look for him to press the pace from just behind the leaders.

I Want Revenge – The probable Derby favorite began his career running second and third to Pioneerof the Nile on the fake dirt in California. He came east this spring to run in the New York Derby preps on real dirt and won the Gotham and Wood Memorial over West Side Bernie among others. The Wood Memorial was particularly impressive since he broke poorly and had traffic trouble in the stretch, but still managed to win. IEAH Stables (the owners of Big Brown) bought a 50% interest in the horse before the Wood. I Want Revenge has the best speed figures of any horse in the race. He usually presses the pace just behind the leaders, but his last race shows he can close too. He’s been stabled at Churchill Downs for a couple of weeks, and he’s been working well. He had a bullet work on Tuesday morning. Trainer Jeff Mullins in some ways is a lot like Big Brown’s trainer, Rick Dutrow, only without the media skills. Nineteen year old jockey Joe Talamo has media skills however, since he’s one of the stars of Animal Planet’s reality series, Jockeys, along with Mike Smith and Garret Gomez. I Want Revenge has good stamina in his pedigree even though his sire, Stephen Got Even, finished 14th in the 1999 Derby. A lot of the stamina on his dam’s side is from Argentina. His mud rating is only so-so.

Atomic Rain – He got in the race on Tuesday when Square Eddie was injured. His trainer, Kelly Breen (the 5 handicapper) put him on a van from New Jersey and he arrived at Churchill Downs on Wednesday. He won’t have any works over the track before the race, just some gallops. He did have a bullet workout in New Jersey on Tuesday before he got on the van. He’s a stablemate of West Side Bernie and ran fourth behind him and winner I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial last out. He was seventh behind General Quarters and Musket Man in the Sam F Davis at Tampa in February. He does have improving speed figures in his last three races. The pedigree has some stamina, but the mud rating is only fair. He gets a good karma rating because his birthday is on Derby Day. And yes, I did listen to Blondie’s “Atomic” before I wrote all this.

Dunkirk – This is supposed to be Todd Pletcher’s best hope in the race. The horse has only three lifetime starts – none as a two year old. No horse has won the Derby after being unraced at two since Apollo in 1882. Dunkirk’s only stakes race was a second to injured Derby favorite, Quality Road in the Florida Derby five weeks ago, but he does have really good speed figures in his last two races. He’ll probably be closing from the back half of the field. He just shipped to Churchill Downs from Florida a couple of days ago and has done no more than gallop over the track. Edgar Prado picks up the mount after Garret Gomez decided to ride Pioneerof the Nile instead. His pedigree should be OK for 1 ¼ miles and he has one of the highest mud ratings in the field.

Pioneerof the Nile – He started his career on the turf and then moved to the fake dirt. He’s never raced on real dirt. He’s on a four race win streak including the Santa Anita Derby over Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff as well as the RB Lewis over Papa Clem and I Want Revenge. He doesn’t have outstanding speed figures, and the combined margin of victory during his win streak is 2 ¾ lengths, but there’s always a possibility he’ll improve on real dirt much like I Want Revenge has. He’s been working very well at Churchill Downs and trainer Bouncy Bob Baffert knows a thing or two about training a Derby horse. Bouncy Bob was just elected to the Racing Hall of Fame this year. Garret Gomez chose to ride this horse over Dunkirk. The pedigree has a lot of stamina on his sire, Empire Maker’s, side, but a surprisingly low mud rating given that Empire Maker beat Funny Cide in the mud at Belmont. He’s related to Patty’s horse, Key Spirit.

Summer Bird – Like Dunkirk he only has three lifetime starts none of which were as a two year old. He closed from dead last to run third behind Papa Clem in the Arkansas Derby last out. He does have steadily improving speed figures. He’s from the first crop of foals by Birdstone who threw a shoe in the 2004 Derby and finished 8th. Birdstone’s defeat of Smarty Jones in the Belmont bumped up the annoyance rating slightly for Summer Bird. Trainer Tim Ice is in his first year as a head trainer. The Arkansas Derby was jockey Chris Rosier’s first mount in a graded stakes race. He returned to riding full time last summer after being off for two years while he was diagnosed with diabetes. Summer Bird’s pedigree is full of stamina, but he has a very low mud rating.

Nowhere to Hide – Last one in the field’s a rotten egg! Wait maybe that’s just a leftover easter egg from the yard that I smell. Nowhere to Hide was the last horse to make the Derby field after Win Willy pulled out, but that’s not a bad thing since he brings trainer Shoeless Nick Zito to join the party. Nowhere to Hide has run fourth in his last three starts – behind Musket Man in the Illinois Derby and Tampa Bay Derby and behind Friesan Fire in the Risen Star stakes. He’s only won one race, but his speed figures are not that much different from a lot of other horses in the Derby. He’s been stabled at Churchill Downs and has one somewhat slow workout over the track two weeks ago. He does have a nice pedigree going for him as well as the best mud rating in the entire field. I imagine Shoeless Nick is making the appropriate offerings to the rain gods even as I type this.

Desert Party – Here’s the other horse owned by the sheikhs from Dubai. Desert Party is the 3rd stringer even though he ran second in the UAE Derby in Dubai last out to stablemate Regal Ransom. He had beaten him in his two previous races in Dubai. He began his career in the US as a two year old and won in the mud at Saratoga. He’s been working extremely well at Churchill Downs and some of the press handicappers have begun to take notice. He’ll probably be closing from mid-pack during the race. The pedigree has stamina and he’s a son of Street Cry who also sired Derby winner Street Sense.

Flying Private – D. Wayne Lukas is back again and he got stuck on the outside. That’s no way to treat a man trying to win his fifth Derby! Flying Private was fifth in the Arkansas Derby behind Papa Clem and Summer Bird last out. He was second to Hold Me Back two races back in the Lane’s End on fake dirt. He has ten lifetime starts and only one win, but he has run twice at Churchill Downs with one second place finish. The speed figures aren’t too bad, but they were noticeably better on the fake dirt than the real dirt. He does have a couple of good workouts at Churchill Downs. The pedigree has most of the stamina 4 – 5 generations back but he is a Polish horse and does have a good mud rating.