Preakness 2015 Preview

Greetings all!

It's time for Black-Eyed Susans and crabcakes in Baltimore!  On Saturday eight horses will enter the starting gate to run 1 3/16 miles.  When they hit the wire we'll know if the next three weeks will be spent in anticipation of another Triple Crown attempt or merely anticipation of a really good horse race.  I've listed the entries and the usual factoids and unsubstantiated opinions about each of the horses below.  Remember with the race at Pimlico 1 3/16 miles long it is slightly shorter than the Derby.  Pimlico is often thought to favor early speed horses, but closers often do well in the Preakness too. Currently the Saturday forecast is for highs in the low 80's, partly cloudy skies, and a 50% chance of thunderstorms.  (I think that's the forecast every year.)   

PP		Horse	Trainer	Jockey
1		American Pharoah	Bob Baffert	Victor Espinoza
2		Dortmund	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia
3		Mr. Z	D. Wayne Lukas	Corey Nakatani
4		Danzig Moon	Mark Casse	Julien Leparoux
5		Tale of Verve	Dallas Stewart	Joel Rosario
6		Bodhisattva	Jose Corrales	Trevor McCarthy
7		Divining Rod	Arnaud Delacour	Javier Castellano
8		Firing Line	Simon Callaghan	Gary Stevens

American Pharoah - After winning the Derby he appears to have bounced back well.  Observers at Pimlico this week describe him as "floating" over the track during his morning gallops.  Meanwhile debate continues about how good a win his Derby victory was.  It was a slow time, his speed figure for the race was lower than his previous race, no closers made any real move, it was just the same three horses all the way around.  Blah, blah, crabcakes.  Bouncy Bob is not happy about drawing post position one, but it's an eight horse field not twenty, so theoretically any trouble Pharoah gets into should be easier to overcome.  Pedigree shouldn't be an issue at the shorter Preakness distance, and rain probably wouldn't be either with one of his most impressive victories coming on a sloppy track earlier this year.

Dortmund - He came out of the Derby well and some observers say he looks great on his morning gallops, others say he looks a little tired.  As far as I can tell no one has actually asked the horse.  His Derby speed figure was much lower than his previous race, so was that the dreaded bounce effect in which case he might recover for this race?  Or was it an indication of stamina limitations.  He is a son Preakness winner Big Brown, and he's a "Polish" horse.  He's never raced on a muddy track.  He's named for a European soccer team as was owner Kaleem Shah's 2014 Preakness runner, Bayern.   Trainer Bouncy Bob Baffert is looking to tie D. Wayne Lukas for 2nd place on the Preakness winning trainers list with his 6th victory.

Mr. Z - He was Zayat Stables other "other" horse in the Derby and finished 13th after getting crunched heading into the clubhouse turn.  Since then he's been galloping in the morning for trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who after finding out Zayat Stables would not enter the colt in the Preakness promptly negotiated his sale to Calumet Farm and subsequent entry into the Preakness.  That's some pretty fast talking even for D. Wayne.  Like most of the other horses in the race his pedigree has stamina sources a few generations back.  One racing commentator unblinkingly referred to Mr. Z as the "X" factor in the race.  So is the Preakness being brought to us by the letters "X" and "Z" and the number "1"?

Danzig Moon - He also got crunched going into the clubhouse turn in the Derby.  He recovered enough to run a steady fifth place finish.  His trainer Mark Casse is hoping his horse will lay back a bit at the start while all the frontrunners in the race set a fast pace this time and give his closer something to run at.  Danzig Moon is Canadian bred, but Polish and is related to Patty and J.O.'s horse, Key Spirit.  At our Derby Day gathering at J.O. and Patty's we thought Key Spirit was telling us to pick Danzig Moon in the Derby when I found a Canadian penny on their sidewalk.  Perhaps we should have interpreted that as Key Spirit not giving two cents for his chances that day.

Tale of Verve - He would have made it into the Derby field if El Kabeir had scratched a little earlier.  As it is he got an extra two weeks of rest after winning his first race last out at Keeneland.  That was a maiden race (for horses who have never won before) and he will now jump directly to the big leagues to run in the Preakness.  That previous race was at the Preakness distance though, and he won easily after closing from the back of the pack.  He appears to be a rapidly improving horse.  There's a good amount of stamina in the pedigree.

Bodhisattva - He's the local horse in the race.  He won the Tesio Stakes at Pimlico last out, and has been training at nearby Laurel Racetrack at an interesting combination of short and long distances.  His speed figures have been improving for the last several races.  Panamanian-born owner Jose Corrales is also the trainer.  The horse has some nice sources of stamina a couple of generations back.  His name is a Buddhist term for an enlightened individual, and some people have commented that it is hard to pronounce.  Have they never listed to the Steely Dan song?  Jockey Trevor McCarthy will be celebrating his 21st birthday on Saturday.

Divining Rod - So the divining rod is starting right next to the enlightened one.  It kinda sounds like some of the fantasy novels I read.  Divining Rod easily won the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland 5 weeks ago.  Prior to that he was 3rd behind Carpe Diem in the Tampa Bay Derby.  He's been training well at Fair Hills Training Center in the Maryland countryside for the last several weeks.  His pedigree has quite a bit of stamina, and his mother is a half sister to VA Derby winner Kitten's Joy.  Divining Rod will be Lael Stables first Preakness entry since Barbaro in 2006.

Firing Line - He ran a game 2nd place race in the Derby, and when I say 2nd place I mean he was literally in 2nd place at every part of the race.  How's that for consistency.  He also finally managed to turn the tables on Dortmund after losing to him twice by a head.  He came out of the Derby well and has been drawing a lot of compliments for his strong gallops in the morning.  His connections were quite happy to draw the outside post position believing that jockey Gary Stevens will have all sorts of options to go to the lead, stalk just off the pace, or just keep American Pharoah and Dortmund firmly pinned down on the inside.  He's another Polish horse in the field and the stamina in his pedigree is also a few generations back.           

That's our Preakness field.  In the 19ARFTCHC Joey has a short lead with a large pack stalking him.  With only 8 horses in the field someone could hit a nice trifecta and really change the shape of the contest.  Post time on Saturday-- 6:18 PM.  Coverage will be on NBC again.

I think my picks will be:
American Pharoah - I'm dancin' with the one what brung me
Bodhisattva - I'm seeking enlightenment
Divining Rod - Sometimes you need a Divining Rod to find enlightenment

Safe trips to all horses and humans.

May the horse be with you.

And also with you .
Lift up your bridle.

We lift them up to the jockey.

Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.

It is right to give him thanks and painted daisies.

~The Annoyed Handicapper

Contest Standings

	Horse	Win	Place	Show	Ex	Total (horse)	Total (Dby)
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Becky	Mubtaahij					$0.00
	Carpe Diem					$0.00	$17.80
	Carpe Diem					$0.00
Gordon	Danzig Moon					$0.00
	Mubtaahij					$0.00	$0.00
	Danzig Moon					$0.00
Jesse	Mubtaahij					$0.00
	Carpe Diem					$0.00	$0.00
	Firing Line		8.40	5.40		$13.80
Jody	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
	Frosted					$0.00	$18.00
	Upstart					$0.00
Brenda	Materiality					$0.00
	Bolo					$0.00	$0.00
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Amy	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
	Ocho Ocho Ocho					$0.00	$22.00
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Michael	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
	Danzig Moon					$0.00	$22.00
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20	72.60	$90.40
Joey	Firing Line		8.40	5.40		$13.80
	Danzig Moon					$0.00	$104.20
	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
Holly	Danzig Moon					$0.00
	War Story					$0.00	$4.20
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Greg	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
	Frosted					$0.00	$22.00
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Adrienne	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
	Danzig Moon					$0.00	$22.00
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Andrew	Danzig Moon					$0.00
	Carpe Diem					$0.00	$17.80
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Erica	Tencendur					$0.00
	Frosted					$0.00	$17.80
	Ocho Ocho Ocho					$0.00
Jeane Man	Carpe Diem					$0.00
	Itsaknockout					$0.00	$0.00
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Thom	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
	Mubtaahij					$0.00	$22.00
	Tencendur					$0.00
Jackie	Keen Ice					$0.00
	Bolo					$0.00	$0.00
	Firing Line		8.40	5.40		$13.80
Sam	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
	Frosted					$0.00	$18.00
	Firing Line		8.40	5.40		$13.80
Trish	Carpe Diem					$0.00
	Danzig Moon					$0.00	$13.80
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Callan	Frosted					$0.00
	Danzig Moon					$0.00	$17.80
	Firing Line		8.40	5.40		$13.80
Matt	Carpe Diem					$0.00
	Materiality					$0.00	$13.80
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Libby	Frosted					$0.00
	Danzig Moon					$0.00	$17.80
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Andrea	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
	Frosted					$0.00	$22.00
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Jacqueline	Frosted					$0.00
	Bolo					$0.00	$17.80
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Peter	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
	Danzig Moon					$0.00	$22.00
	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
Rosemary	Frammento					$0.00
	Carpe Diem					$0.00	$4.20
	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
Patty	Danzig Moon					$0.00
	Carpe Diem					$0.00	$4.20
	Firing Line		8.40	5.40		$13.80
J.O.	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
	Carpe Diem					$0.00	$18.00
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Wes	Frosted					$0.00
	Upstart					$0.00	$17.80
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Bruce	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
	Frosted					$0.00	$22.00
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Lauren	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
	Frosted					$0.00	$22.00
	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
Bob	Danzig Moon					$0.00
	Carpe Diem					$0.00	$4.20
	Mubtaahij					$0.00
Kitty	Danzig Moon					$0.00
	Itsaknockout					$0.00	$0.00
	Frammento					$0.00
Glenham	Carpe Diem					$0.00
	Bolo					$0.00	$0.00
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Arch	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
	Materiality					$0.00	$22.00
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Mandi	Upstart					$0.00
	Mr. Z					$0.00	$17.80
	American Pharoah	7.80	5.80	4.20		$17.80
Tyson	Dortmund			4.20		$4.20
	Ocho Ocho Ocho					$0.00	$22.00