Thursday, May 29, 2008

Preakness Results

Greetings all,

Sorry for the delay in sending out the Preakness results for the 12ARFTCHC. I was in Atlanta last weekend for a foundry convention, and I’m still trying to catch up. I was at the convention all day on Saturday, but I made it back to my hotel room just as the horses were entering the Preakness starting gate. I guess you could say the race went pretty much according to plan. Big Brown breaks from the gate. Big Brown tucks in at the rail. Desormeaux does a little bobbing and weaving to establish position outside of the leaders down the backstretch. Big Brown ranges up beside the leaders on the far turn. Desormeaux begins to urge Big Brown. I blink at the wrong moment, and when I open my eyes Big Brown is three lengths ahead. Desormeaux does some rather awkward moves checking for pursuers, and I scream, “Don’t fall off, you idiot!” Big Brown eases across the finish line with his big brown ears flopping, and it’s on to Belmont.

Final order of finish:


Big Brown

Macho Again

Icabad Crane

Racecar Rhapsody

Stevil

Kentucky Bear

Hey Byrn

Giant Moon

Tres Borrachos

Yankee Bravo

Gayego

Riley Tucker


Here are the race comments from the Equibase chart:


BIG BROWN was taken in hand along the inside nearing the first turn, brushed with RILEY TUCKER approaching the backstretch, was wrangled back and angled five wide leaving the three quarter pole, stalked the leaders under confident handling while continuing wide, lodged a bid mid way on the final turn, charged to the front in upper stretch, moved clear under urging nearing the eighth pole then was taken in hand through the final sixteenth. MACHO AGAIN saved ground early, advanced between rivals nearing the half mile marker, steadied when in traffic mid way on the turn, angled out nearing the quarter pole, swung five wide entering the stretch and continued on willingly to gain the place. ICABAD CRANE settled along the inside, commenced a rail run leaving the far turn, steadied when lacking room on the turn, angled out near the quarter pole, split horses in upper stretch and closed late to gain a share. RACECAR RHAPSODY saved ground to the half mile marker, angled out and moved between rivals near the three eighths pole, altered course six wide at the top of the lane, continued his run to mid stretch then flattened out. STEVIL raced two wide in mid pack, bumped with RACECAR RHAPSODY on the far turn, advanced three wide between rivals to reach contention on the turn then failed to sustain his bid. KENTUCKY BEAR stumbled at the break, lost ground four wide entering the backstretch, altered course to the inside nearing the half mile pole, made a sharp move along the rail leaving the far turn, checked behind a wall of horses in upper stretch, angled to the four path then finished evenly. HEY BYRN was four wide chasing the pace along the backstretch, remained a factor to the quarter pole then steadily tired thereafter. GIANT MOON settled in mid pack while well off the rail, chased the leaders five wide down the backstretch, swung eight wide leaving the quarter pole then lacked a late response. TRES BORRACHOS stumbled badly at the break, checked repeatedly in the opening quarter mile, swung wide nearing the quarter pole but failed to reach contention. YANKEE BRAVO devoid of speed while saving ground throughout and lacked the needed response when called upon. GAYEGO leaned in and bumped with GIANT MOON leaving the gate, was hustled up to gain a clear early advantage, set the pace in hand down the backstretch, dueled from the far turn to the head of the stretch, gave way and was not abused late. RILEY TUCKER brushed with the winner nearing the backstretch, stalked the pace two to three wide, moved to challenge leaving the three eighths, gained a brief lead between rivals mid way on the final turn then stopped leaving the three sixteenths marker.


In the 12ARFTCHC Peter again had the exacta and has opened a lead over Jacqueline. Gordon and Brenda each had the exacta and are attempting to keep pace with the leader. The rest of us are diddling around at the back, dreaming of a Silky Sullivan type finish. Don’t know what that means? Check out YouTube.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FT_YxcoDhtY




Here are the current totals in our contest.





[Click on Charts to Enlarge Them]


Big Brown is awaiting his chance in the Belmont spotlight. He’s dealing with a small complication right now since he’s developed a quarter crack on one foot, but his hoof specialist, Ian McKinlay, says it is healing well. Big Brown jogged around the track yesterday and was out for a gallop today. Trainer Rick Dutrow says he looks great and doesn’t seem concerned about any lost training time. As of now his Belmont competition looks to be a mix of new faces and familiar foes. Anak Nakal, Japanese star Casino Drive, Denis of Cork, Icabad Crane, Macho Again, Tale of Ekati, and Peruvian Wonder Horse Tomcito are all probable starters and Behindatthebar may join in as well.


So now we wait for June 7th.


In the meantime, may the Big Brown horse be with you.


~The Annoyed Hadicapper

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Patience Grasshopper

The Annoyed Handicapper will be along in a few days with results from our little contest. Be patient. It must be complicated.

Friday, May 16, 2008

Preakness Picks

Here’s my look at the Preakness field. I’ve taken a line from The Annoyed Handicapper and carefully crafted my own original thoughts. All odds are morning line odds from Friday, but I believe the odds on Big Brown are now something like 3-10.


Macho Again (20-1) Won the Derby Trial three weeks ago and earned a nice speed figure.


This is an intriguing long shot. His performance in the Derby Trial was …nice. (I have a hard time writing that word without thinking of one of my favorite South Park scenes… I know it doesn’t really fit the situation, but it is …nice.)


Tres Borrachos (30-1) - He ran 3rd behind Gayego in the Arkansas Derby five weeks ago.


I watched that race and was not impressed.


Icabad Crane (30-1) – He’s the only horse in the race who has run at Pimlico. He won the traditional Preakness prep race, the Tesio Stakes, 4 weeks ago after prevailing in a tough stretch duel.


Home course merits consideration. But there is too much to overcome.


Yankee Bravo (15-1) In his last race he was 4th behind Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby. Before that he was 3rd behind Pyro in the LA Derby.


This horse has been disappointing me all year. I fully expected a better effort in the Santa Anita, but he didn’t deliver. He’s an all-American out of the money finisher.


Racecar Rhapsody (30-1)He’s finished 4th in his last 3 races behind Z Humor, Adriano, and Behindatthebar among others.


He finished far behind horses that finished far behind Big Brown.


Big Brown (1-2) The Derby winner has been taking it easy at Churchill Downs – jogging, an occasional gallop, nothing too strenuous.


Beyond Chalk. Big Brown won me over in the Derby. With only four races under his belt, he’s proven to be a true force against a weak class.


Kentucky Bear (15-1) –. Last out, Kentucky Bear finished 3rd in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Monba after going 9 wide into the stretch.


The Blue Grass was perhaps the most bizarre race of the year. Watch the move by Stevil in the stretch. He just came up empty. KB was strong but couldn’t match the two horses that lost to Big Brown in the Derby.


Stevil (30-1)In his last race he was 4th in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Monba and Kentucky Bear after a troubled trip.


Watch the move by Stevil in the stretch. He just came up empty. Heard that before? I’m wondering if Stevil gets a clear trip if he can be more of a factor. That being said. The Bluegrass was 1 1/8. The Preakness is slightly longer (1 3/16). Stevil gave everything he had at 1 mile and had nothing more. How much did the bad trip take out of him?


Riley Tucker (30-1) - He does have improving speed figures and finished a nice 3rd behind Behindatthebar in the Lexington Stakes last out.


If he had a Z in his name it would be Zero Factor.


Giant Moon (30-1) He ran a game 4th behind Tale of Ekati in the Wood Memorial after pressing the pace. That was 7 weeks ago and he has been training well at Belmont Park since then, including a bullet work on Tuesday.


I want to like this horse. He ran a very strong 4th in the Wood. That was another unusual race…fast, with a rabbit pushing War Pass to speedy fractions. Tale of Ekati came on to nip him at the wire. Court Vision just got a head in front of Giant Moon at the line as well. This is a sleeper horse.


Gayego (8-1)They wanted to give him some recovery time after his 17th place Derby finish in which he shied away from the crowd going past the stands the first time and ended up running over top of several other horses.


I didn’t think he was that impressive in the Arkansas Derby and he proved that by slinking in in 17th place in the Derby. He did have an outside post, but so did Big Brown. I just don’t see him suddenly become better than he’s shown.


Hey Byrn (20-1) He won the Holy Bull Stakes at the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles in his last start.


No respect. Nobody respects this horse. He was a favorite in the Florida Derby, but was bombed by Big brown losing by over 17 lengths. He looked excellent, however, in his last race, The Holy Bull (Now raced on the undercard on Arkansas Derby day at Oaklawn). Can he recapture his early unproven praise?


So here’s my projected order of finish:

1. Big Brown

2. Giant Moon

3. Kentucky Bear

4. Hey Byrn

5. Stevil

6. Gayego

7. Macho Again

8. The rest


Like others, I reserve the right to change my picks right up until post.



~Newt

Late Scratch

Behindatthebar has scratched from the Preakness tomorrow due to a bruised foot. Todd will need to go take in an Oriole game.

If you picked this horse in our little contest, you'll need to email the Annoyed One with a new pick.

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Preakness Field

Greetings all,

It’s Preakness time again, but this year’s field seems a bit different than usual. You know how I usually include in this write up the Ogden Nash quote, "The Derby is a race of aristocratic sleekness, for horses of birth to prove their worth to run in the Preakness?" Well, apparently the vast majority of the Derby field didn't get the memo about continuing on to the Preakness. The Preakness race field consists of two Derby horses and 11 new faces. More and more the Triple Crown Trail seems like those years where the Saturday Night Live cast has one talented comic and the rest of the cast are just taking up space. Yeah, I think we may be looking at Big Brown and the Not Ready for Prime Time Players this year. Of course that doesn't guarantee Big Brown will win. Just think about last year. How was Street Sense going to lose? Then Curlin came along to nip him at the wire. In 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus was the surest Triple Crown lock there had ever been. He lost to Red Bullet in the Preakness. Even when you know, you never know.


I've listed the entries and the usual factoids and unsubstantiated opinions about each of the horses below. Remember the race at Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore is 1 3/16 miles long – slightly shorter than the Derby. While Pimlico is often thought to favor early speed horses, closers often do well in the Preakness too. Weather forecasts are calling for rain showers on Friday, but clearing skies and wind on Saturday. The track should be fast by Preakness post time of 6:15 PM.




Saturday's Preakness Stakes Entries & Post Positions

[Click on chart for larger image]


Macho Again – Won the Derby Trial three weeks ago and earned a nice speed figure. In his only start longer than a mile he ran 7th behind Adriano in the Lane’s End on the fake dirt at Turfway Park. His connections didn't actually decide to run in the Preakness until this past Sunday. He might like a little moisture in the track since his fastest workout came on a muddy track. His preferred running style is to stalk the pace. Trainer Dallas Stewart was an assistant to D. Wayne Lukas during many of Wayne’s 5 Preakness victories. French ex patriot jockey Julien Leparoux has the mount.


Tres Borrachos - His name is Spanish for “three drunks.” He’s winless in 3 starts this year, and has a total of 1 lifetime win. He does have steadily improving, if somewhat unspectacular, speed figures in his last few races. He ran 3rd behind Gayego in the Arkansas Derby five weeks ago. Since that race he’s had some nice workouts at Churchill Downs. He should be one of the frontrunners in the race. He’s a Polish horse and has some nice stamina sources, including Triple Crown winner, Affirmed, in his pedigree.


Icabad Crane – He’s the only horse in the race who has run at Pimlico. He won the traditional Preakness prep race, the Tesio Stakes, 4 weeks ago after prevailing in a tough stretch duel. His speed figures do show an up and down pattern and it looks like we’re due for a downer this time. He is stabled at the Fair Hill Training Center in MD which is about an hour’s drive from Pimlico. Trainer Graham Motion will van the horse over to the track on Saturday morning. He’s a closer, so look for him to put in a big run from the back of the pack. He’s also won on a muddy track.


Yankee Bravo – In his last race he was 4th behind Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby. Before that he was 3rd behind Pyro in the LA Derby. He’s been stabled in California all spring and shipped into Pimlico on Wednesday. He’s had some nice workouts lately, particularly his last one which was a nice long 7 furlong work in a good time. He’s another closer and does seem to possess a pretty decent closing kick. He actually began his career in England last year before he was bought by his current owners.


Behindatthebar – He won the Lexington Stakes on Keeneland’s fake dirt 4 weeks ago with a good closing move. He could have run in the Derby, but his connections felt that the Derby would have given him too many races in too short a time, so they waited for the Preakness. He’s only raced on real dirt once and he finished 5th behind Tres Borrachos among others. He’s been training on real dirt at Belmont Park lately and doing well. The pedigree is a little on the speedy side, but there’s some stamina on his mom’s side. Todd Pletcher only has one horse in the race instead of his usual 4 or 5, so I’ll be curious to see how he passes the time in the saddling area – crossword puzzles, Sudoku, video games on his cellphone?


Racecar Rhapsody – He’s another one of the entrants who is winless this year and possesses only one lifetime win. He’s finished 4th in his last 3 races behind Z Humor, Adriano, and Behindatthebar among others. He does have some nice workouts at Churchill Downs since his last race. He’s one who might really like a muddy track. Jockey Robbie Albarado won last year on Curlin. Owner Jerry Carroll also owns the Kentucky Speedway and includes a checkered flag motif in his racing silks.


Big Brown – The Derby winner has been taking it easy at Churchill Downs – jogging, an occasional gallop, nothing too strenuous. He arrived at Pimlico on Wednesday evening, Rick Dutrow plans to blow him out a couple of furlongs (a fast ¼ mile workout) on Saturday morning. That’s some old school training right there. He did blow him out 3 furlongs a couple of days before the Derby too. Some trainers say it opens up a horse’s lungs and gets them on their toes. Dutrow has managed to simultaneously say his horse is invincible against the rest of the nags in the race, and give him an excuse that he’s coming back after only two weeks rest and might bounce. Political spinmeisters got nothing on him. This will be a homecoming for Dutrow who grew up on the Maryland tracks working for his father, successful trainer Dick Dutrow. Kent Desormeaux is a former Maryland Riding God himself.


Kentucky Bear – Big Brown aside, connections of all the horses have made no bones about the fact they are basically running in the race for the second place money. Kentucky Bear’s trainer, Reade Baker, is a notable exception. I quote, “Let’s not put Big Brown in the Hall of Fame too soon,” Baker said. “He was the best of the horses in the Derby, and the filly gave him a heckuva run. He beat those horses, but it certainly doesn't make him better than anyone else (in the Preakness).” Strong words from the trainer of a horse with 1 win in 3 lifetime starts. Last out, Kentucky Bear finished 3rd in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Monba after going 9 wide into the stretch. He does have the appearance of an improving horse though. He’s also been in residence at Pimlico longer than any of the other horses, having arrived almost 2 weeks ago. He’s gotten in a nice workout over a sloppy track while he’s been there, but his pedigree might be a little light on stamina.


Stevil – He’s another of the “winless this year and possesses only one lifetime win” brigade. In his last race he was 4th in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Monba and Kentucky Bear after a troubled trip. “Shoeless” Nick Zito has kept him stabled at Churchill Downs and he’s had some decent workouts. John Velazquez will be his 5th different jockey in 7 total starts. He might like mud. His name rhymes with “weevil” which I think is a bit unfortunate as it conjures up visions of destructive pests and Virginia Tech AD Jim Weaver.


Riley Tucker - Ahmed Zayat left his “Z” horses at home for the Preakness and instead entered a horse named after trainer Bill Mott’s son. I’m not sure if that means anything other than the fact that at least I won’t keep mixing the horse up with a similarly named stablemate as I type this. OK, you can all say it with me this time, “he’s winless this year and possesses only one lifetime win.” He does have improving speed figures and finished a nice 3rd behind Behindatthebar in the Lexington Stakes last out. He appears to be willing to run up front or lay off the pace. He also might move up on a wet track. Former Maryland Riding God, Edgar Prado, will be inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame this summer.


Giant Moon – He ran a game 4th behind Tale of Ekati in the Wood Memorial after pressing the pace. That was 7 weeks ago and he has been training well at Belmont Park since then, including a bullet work on Tuesday. His speed figures have been improving (if you throw out the really low fig he got running in the fog at Aqueduct where he finished 9th in the Gotham behind Visionaire.) Trainer Richard Shosberg wasn’t happy with the outside post position. He’s worried his horse will have to run too fast too early to get position on the Clubhouse Turn. Jockey Ramon Dominguez is another Former Maryland Riding God and knows Pimlico well.


Gayego – His connections didn't decide to run until this past Tuesday. They wanted to give him some recovery time after his 17th place Derby finish in which he shied away from the crowd going past the stands the first time and ended up running over top of several other horses. After that he pretty much lost interest in the whole process. Can’t say as I blame him, but he’s feeling good now and he gets another chance to validate his nice Arkansas Derby win. Look for him to try to get position near the front, but it will be difficult from his outside post position.



Hey Byrn – He won the Holy Bull Stakes at the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles in his last start. Before that he was a distant 4th behind Big Brown in the Florida Derby after being bumped hard at the start. Trainer Eddie Plesa says Hey Byrn has tactical speed that he can use to get position going into the Clubhouse Turn. Hey Byrn made the 20 hour van ride from Calder Race Track in Miami on May 12. Originally he was going to run in the Ohio Derby, but owner Beatrice Oxenberg will celebrate her 87th birthday on Friday with family in the Baltimore area and decided to combine that with watching her horse run on Saturday. Hey Byrn is named for her late husband, Bernie.


There’s the field – Big Brown and the Not Ready For Prime Time Players.


Don't forget to check the ARFTCHC blog. Thom will be posting his analysis, and I’ll post these field notes on it. You guys can post your comments and picks there for everyone to see too. You’ll find the blog at http://arftchc.blogspot.com/ .


In the 12ARFTCHC Jacqueline and Peter Andre have the lead on the rest of us who are bunched tightly as we head down the backstretch. Who will make a move to catch the leaders? Send me your three picks by post time on Saturday (approx. 6:15 pm), and we’ll see.


My picks will be:

Big Brown – well, duh …

Giant Moon – lacking any other inspiration I look to the heavens

Yankee Bravo – maybe he’ll improve on real dirt

I reserve the right to be shallow and change any of these picks if I see a pretty pony in the post parade.




May the horse be with you.

And also with you.

Lift up your bridle.

We lift them up to the jockey.

Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.

It is right to give him thanks and painted daisies.


~The Annoyed Handicapper

Sunday, May 11, 2008

ARFTCHC F 2008 Derby Results

Greetings all,

It’s not easy to write a summation for this particular Derby. There’s so much to celebrate in the win by Big Brown. It was an awesome performance, adding another 4 lengths to bring his total lifetime victory margin to 33 lengths in four races. It was an outside stalking trip tour de force for horse and rider. Check out some photos of horse and jockey after the race. There’s not a speck of dirt on them. They started twenty-wide moved over to four-wide and stayed there until they took the lead. They never actually ran directly behind any other horse. It’s like Desormeaux was purposefully keeping them clean for the winner’s circle photos.


Denis of Cork came up the rail (under Calvin “Bo-Rail” Borel) to run a good third. Check out the video replay and watch the horse essentially make a left turn directly to the rail shortly after breaking from the gate. It was like watching a football player do a sideways drill at full speed.


And then there’s the hard stuff. Eight Belles… She ran a tremendous race – clearly the best of the rest, but it’s so sad that was her last performance. I have never seen a fatal injury occur so far past the finish line when the horse was slowing down and just galloping out. They are performing a necropsy on Eight Belles to try to determine the cause for the injuries. No matter what the cause, it does illustrate the fragility of some of these horses. The racing industry has done some things to try to address this issue, and I hope this event will add urgency to those efforts. At least then some good can come of it.


As for the rest of the field, technical difficulties prevent me from reproducing the official chart in this email, but suffice it to say that the comment lines for well over half the field include the words “bumped” and “steadied”. Not particularly helpful when you’re trying to put in your best effort.


Here’s the full order of finish:


1

Big Brown

2

Eight Belles

3

Denis of Cork

4

Tale of Ekati

5

Recapturetheglory

6

Colonel John

7

Anak Nakal

8

Pyro

9

Cowboy Cal

10

Z Fortune

11

Smooth Air

12

Visionaire

13

Court Vision

14

Z Humor

15

Cool Coal Man

16

Bob BlackJack

17

Gayego

18

Big Truck

19

Adriano

20

Monba


In the 12ARFTCHC Jacqueline and her friend, Peter Andre, picked the exacta and have sprinted clear of the field heading into the first turn. Gordon has tucked in behind the leaders and the rest of us are tightly bunched at the back of the pack. Probably a lot of “bumping” and “steadying” going on back there right now. I’ve listed your Derby results below.




[Click on an image to enlarge]

Now we head to the Preakness. Big Brown has scared off all the Derby horses except Recapturetheglory, but there are at least six new faces who want to take a shot at the Big Brown horse. Trainer Rick Dutrow plans to leave Big Brown at Churchill Downs until next Wednesday and has had the horse out for a gallop already this week. For all of us who find Rick Dutrow irritating here’s a nice little vignette from Steve Haskin in his Blood-Horse write-up on the Derby. “When the second-largest Derby crowd of 157,770 had cleared out of Churchill Downs, Dutrow returned to his barn, hugged his longtime exercise rider and assistant trainer Michelle Nevin, and strutted down the shedrow to see Big Brown.

“Where is he?” Dutrow asked rhetorically, as if about to greet a long lost friend. “You are the freakin’ man,” he said admiringly after entering Big Brown’s stall. He gave the colt a dozen or so affectionate smacks on the neck and then wrapped his arms tightly around his neck for about 30 seconds, as if unable or unwilling to let go. Big Brown never moved as he rested his head on Dutrow’s shoulder. With Big Brown peering straight ahead as Dutrow embraced him, it was one of those priceless moments that seem frozen in time. This is the Rick Dutrow people rarely see. This is when the often brash, outspoken trainer becomes humbled by the equine gifts that have been bestowed upon him.”


On to Pimlico.

May the horse be with you.

~The Annoyed Handicapper


Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Final Standings

ARFTCHC

Final League Standings

Final Scoring through the KENTUCKY DERBY (05/03)

League Rank

Score

Stable Name

Player


1

156

Creasy Greens

Thomas Ryder


2

155

Miracles

Thom Ryder


3

144

Walkin' Tall

Andrew Ryder


4

143

Antilles Stable

Elizabeth Ryder


5

141

SCHANUCI

John Ryder


6

139

APACHE_ROSE_PEACOCK

Andrew Ryder


7

118

Princess Shea

philip martinez


8

84

Yes We Can

John Wallace


9

70

Clifton Pond Stable

Rebecca Ryder


Folks, with humbleness and humility, I accept the crown of top stable owner in the 2008 ARFTCHC. Seriously, it was quite a winter and spring. This year’s group of horses were generally considered to be weaker than average. Big Brown came on late with huge wins in few races. Few horses ran in many races making picking a stable of horses that would actually run and earn money very difficult.

My original stable wasn’t much different than every other competitors’ stables. In fact, it was mediocre. However, I made my move in the mid-season horse adoption window. I looked at and chose Hey Byrn in the supplemental draft to race in the Holy Bull that following weekend. That horse won and those eight points were pivotal in our contest. I also owned two stables that had many horses running in the Kentucky Derby. Thankfully, I chose Denis of Cork (another supplemental pick) for both stables. Yet in my first place stable, I did not start Denis in the Derby. But in my weaker stable, I did.

So in the end, another fantasy year has passed. Now we have to watch and see if Big Brown can make the trifecta.

According to the website, there is a new Breeder’s Cup Fantasy challenge. We will have to try that out! Check your account for details.

Newt

Monday, May 5, 2008

Silence

Silence.

When I watched runner-up Eight Belles laying on the track right after the 2008 Kentucky Derby, all I could do was fall silent. My sister-in-law, Adrienne, uttered the exact same line she used at the beginning of the Preakness in 2006 (scroll all the way down) when Barbaro went down. “Oh my stars!” This time though, she seemed much more low-key.

NBC was covering the Kentucky Derby Saturday and still had the camera on winner, Big Ole Giant Brown Horse, when the camera panned back to the fallen filly. The camera stayed for a moment then wandered off the sad image. The announcers were silent. When the crew should have been hyping the glory of the victory, they were stunned to silence.

A few minutes later, NBC ran a replay of the gallop out as Eight Belles gradually left the frame. Just as she disappeared off the right edge of the screen with only her shadow left, the video clearly shows the jockey’s silhouetted hands fly straight out as if he suddenly found himself in the air. No commentary was needed.

Since Saturday, PETA has attempted to make a case for increasing regulations for the safety of horses. I suppose that’s understandable especially after Chelokee as well went down with injury on Friday just before the Kentucky Oaks. Chelokee is battling his injury as of this writing with a 50/50 chance of survival. However, PETA’s campaign seems ghoulish to me, a press push riding a wave of sadness.

I suppose PETA felt it needed to capitalize on the tragedy to push one of its agendas and felt that the window of opportunity was narrow. They did the same thing with the media blitz surrounding the Michael Vick dog-fighting trial. Something seems morally wrong about how they are going about their crusade. It’s like they forgot about the power of silence.

Eight Belles had a potentially brilliant career ahead of her. Yet in the end she suffered from a fragile weakness. Whether or not Eight Belles and race horses in general have been bred for speed and distance, as well as for catastrophic breakdown is a matter for debate in the future.

But for now, only silence serves the memory of Eight Belles.



[Interview with Larry Jones: Tastefully done.]

Saturday, May 3, 2008

The Field: Part 2

…And here’s the other half of the field.

{Click Chart for larger image}



Z Humor - I still can’t keep the “Z” horses straight. This guy finished third behind Recapturetheglory in the Illinois Derby four weeks ago and before that he was fourth behind Cool Coal Man and Court Vision in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. His speed figures are generally increasing and he has been working pretty well at Churchill Downs. This is Bill Mott’s second horse in the race and he’s still looking for his first Derby win. Z Humor does have an ok pedigree for a mile and a quarter and as a descendant of Danzig he’s a Polish horse.


Smooth Air – He ran a good second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby five weeks ago and won the Hutcheson Stakes earlier in the year. His speed figures have an up and down pattern and it looks like he might be due for a down race. He ran a low fever last week, but appears to have recovered completely. He worked three furlongs Thursday morning to open up his lungs and seemed to do it easily. Trainer Bennie Stutts is 70 years old and has been training for forty years. He’s resorted to some old school training methods to compensate for Smooth Air’s speedy pedigree, regularly sending him out for long seven furlong or mile workouts to build stamina. Smooth Air was born on Greg’s birthday.


Bob Black Jack – He holds the current world record for six furlongs. Of course it was set on some freakishly fast fake dirt at Santa Anita this winter, and world records at six furlongs are probably not relevant to performance in a mile and a quarter race, but still, world record! So we know Bob Black Jack is fast. He can also stretch out in distance as shown by his good second place finish to Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby four weeks ago, but he’s still pretty iffy to get a mile and a quarter though. He arrived at Churchill Downs last week and has put in a good workout over the track. Observers have noted he doesn’t have the most graceful stride. He sort of flails away so his front legs look like eggbeaters, but did I mention he’s fast? He also likes to run in front.


Monba – Todd Pletcher is getting sneaky. He spent all spring losing horribly in the prep races, and just when it looked like he would have no entrants in the Derby his horses run first and second in the Blue Grass Stakes. They were about the only horses who did not run mystifyingly badly in the Blue Grass Stakes on the fake dirt. All of Monba’s best speed figures have come on the fake dirt. He had looked like a good horse early in the year, but throat problems during the Fountain of Youth resulted in a twelfth place finish and a need to take some time off. He’s been training at Keeneland for the last month and has no recorded workouts at Churchill Downs. He did win a race at Churchill last fall. His pedigree looks pretty good for a mile and a quarter and he was born on Mom’s birthday.


Adriano – Won the Lane’s End on fake dirt six weeks ago by simply galloping the field into submission. All of his races have been on fake dirt or turf except the Fountain of Youth where he acted up in the paddock and ran ninth behind Cool Coal Man. Trainer Graham Motion hopes it was the nerves that led to the poor performance and not a dislike of real dirt. Adriano has been schooling in the paddock almost every day at Churchill Downs and has behaved very well. He’s also put in a couple of good workouts over the track. His pedigree says the distance should be no problem, but he’s a late May foal so actually he’s still pretty young. Former Maryland Riding God Edgar Prado was just elected to the Racing Hall of Fame. Edgar chose to ride Adriano in the Derby over Tale of Ekati and Monba. Of course when he made his choice it was before Tale of Ekati won the Wood Memorial and Monba won the Blue Grass.


Denis of Cork – His connections decided to get cute with their preparations this spring and ended up not having enough earnings to make the Derby field. They had to sweat through a few horses deciding not to run before they could be sure they were in the race. In the meantime Denis had been working brilliantly at Churchill Downs. If you get a chance watch some replays of his workouts and watch how well he corners on the turns. He’s practically glued to the rail. In his last race he ran fifth behind Recapturetheglory in the Illinois Derby. Prior to that he had won his first three races pretty easily, including his first race at Churchill Downs last fall. He was named for an Irish priest who is a friend of the owner. Last year’s Derby-winning jockey, Calvin Borel, tries for a repeat.


Cowboy Cal – Sneaky Todd Pletcher’s other entrant ran second to Monba in the Blue Grass to earn his way into the Derby. Prior to that race he’d been running pretty successfully on turf. He has a good pedigree for dirt too and one that should help him get a mile and a quarter ok. He’s been training at Keeneland for the last month and has no recorded workouts at Churchill Downs. Any money he earns in the Derby will be donated to the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston in memory of one of the owners’ friends. As I noted after the Belmont last year, “It was good to see Pletcher and John Velazquez get their first Triple Crown race wins. Of course next spring they’ll still have to answer the question, “You can win the Belmont with a filly, so how come you can’t win the Derby after entering umpteen bazillion horses?” Cowboy Cal is their chance to end those inquiries for good.


Recapturetheglory – Twenty years ago owner/trainer Louis Roussel and owner Ronnie Lamarque brought Risen Star (yes, the same one they named a Derby prep race after) to the Derby and he ran third as the favorite behind the filly Winning Colors. He then went on to win the Preakness and the Belmont. It’s taken the owners twenty years to get back and Louis had been saving the name Recapturetheglory for a special horse he thought could get them to the Derby and win it in honor of Risen Star. That was looking like a pretty iffy prospect until Recapturetheglory led wire to wire to win the Illinois Derby beating Denis of Cork and earning the third highest speed figure in a Derby prep in the process. He’s had a couple of decent workouts at Churchill Downs since that race, and he did run second behind Cool Coal Man in an allowance race there last fall. The pedigree is a bit doubtful for a mile and a quarter – most of the stamina is several generations back.


Gayego – He won the Arkansas Derby over Z Fortune in his last race which was his first one on real dirt. Previously he had been running on the fake dirt in California. He has one of those up and down patterns in his speed figures and it appears we’re heading down for the Derby. He had a good workout at Churchill Downs in the mud last weekend. He likes to run on or near the lead. His pedigree is not made for a mile and a quarter, but it wasn’t made for a mile and an eighth either which was the length of the Arkansas Derby he won. He’s a big strapping horse with a big girth and certain unflattering camera angles make him look like a pregnant broodmare. The owners are a couple of political refugees from Cuba who came to the US in the early 1970’s. They named him for the residents of the Galicia region in Northern Spain.


Big Brown – The name’s not quite as dopey as Big Truck, but it’s close. The owner has a trucking company that does a lot of business with UPS, so he named the horse for them. That’s one way to bring in a customer. Big Brown has certainly delivered so far, winning his total of three lifetime races by a combined 29 lengths. Yes, only three lifetime races. The last Derby winner with that few races was the filly, Regret, in 1915. Last year Curlin had four lifetime races prior to his third place Derby finish. Big Brown had some foot problems after his first race last fall, so they had to take it easy with him for a while. He still wears glue on shoes to prevent any further problems. In his last race he beat Smooth Air in the Florida Derby by five lengths in a very fast time while breaking from the far outside post. He earned the highest speed figure for any Derby prep in that race. Trainer Dick Dutrow has been expressing extreme confidence in horse. Some people think it’s more like trash-talking. Some even think his choice of the twentieth post position when posts 18, 19, 1, and 2 were available was a deliberate slap at the rest of the field. Dutrow says he figured his horse would get a cleaner trip from the far outside, and I think that sounds reasonable enough. Big Brown arrived from Florida on Tuesday and had a short but speedy workout at Churchill Downs on Thursday morning. His pedigree might be a bit questionable for a mile and a quarter since his sire was a sprinter, but there’s quite a bit of stamina on his mom’s side. He’s also a Polish horse.


There’s the field…finally.


If you’re still with me it appears my system is picking:


Adriano – his high leg action reminds me of Skip Away, of course Skippy hated running at Churchill Downs.

Eight Belles – I’d like to see Larry Jones win it.

Pyro – I got on the bandwagon before the Breeders’ Cup last year. Might as well stay on.


Don’t forget to send me your three horses by post time on Saturday. We’ll be glued to the TV all day if anyone would care to join us to watch the race.




May the horse be with you.

And also with you.
Lift up your bridle.

We lift them up to the jockey.

Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.

It is right to give him thanks and roses.


~The Annoyed Handicapper