Thursday, April 30, 2009

A Look at the Main Event

You can view the Derby preview articles at our Drop.io box. Just type the password: horse.


A Look at the Main Event

Here’s a look at the horses entered in this year’s Derby. You can check out the free past performances at the drf site. Other resources are available online to help you with your handicapping. Ouija Board, Magic Eight Ball. Go ahead, ask the question that’s burning in your brain.



1 West Side Bernie Stewart Elliott Kelly Breen 30-1

Back on April 9, West Side Bernie ran second to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial. Prior to that, this horse has travelled to face competition. Realistically, he doesn’t factor.

Media Moment


2 Musket Man Eibar Coa Derek Ryan 20-1

This horse wins. While some might argue that he should be discounted for not running against top-flight competition, you can’t dismiss his victories. Life if filled with disappointment. Coming out on top in any competition is a rare treat. Musket Man wins.

Media Moment

“When za bad guy is this happy, it always always means…BAD GUY Song!”


3 Mr. Hot Stuff John Velazquez Eoin Harty 30-1

This is a horse that has made a career out of finishing third to the west coast horses. Some track observers have noted that he doesn’t seem to care too much for the Churchill track.

Media Moment


4 Advice Rene Douglas Todd Pletcher 30-1

The odds seem right on the money to me. Ultimately, this horse should not win nor be anywhere close to the top.

Media Moment


5 Hold Me Back Kent Desormeaux Bill Mott 15-1

One could argue that Hold Me Back is the best of the horses that can’t win.

Media Moment


6 Friesan Fire Gabriel Saez Larry Jones 5-1

According to track reports, Friesan Fire has been working very well at Churchill. I’ve been most impressed with this horse. His victory in the Louisiana Derby on one of the sloppiest tracks you’ll ever see was one of the two most amazing performances of this year. Some, however, question his extended lay-off.

Media Moment


7 Papa Clem Rafael Bejarano Gary Stute 20-1

Papa Clem is a horse that is getting no respect. Consistently, he has run in the top two slots against the stiffest competition in the group. If I’m betting and can get 20-1 on this horse, I’d definitely place a dime wager.

Media Moment


8 Mine That Bird Calvin Borel Bennie Woolley 50-1

“There is nothing striking about him physically; he’s just a smallish colt in a plain brown wrapper, but he does move well.” That statement by Steve Haskin just about sums it up.

Media Moment


9 Join in the Dance Chris DeCarlo Todd Pletcher 50-1

So, Todd managed to get his rabbit into the race to pace Dunkirk. Here’s the problem with Todd. He thinks too much. After all, he’s lost the Kentucky Derby close to 750 times.

Media Moment


10 Regal Ransom Alan Garcia Saeed bin Suroor 30-1

Who knows? Regal Ransom upset Desert Party’s party in Dubai. However, we really don’t know how strong the competition was. So, who knows? We do know that traditionally these Dubai horses are mid-pack finishers at best in the Kentucky Derby.

Media Moment


11 Chocolate Candy Mike Smith Jerry Hollendorfer 20-1

The thinking man’s horse? I think some “experts” are over-analyzing just a bit. Chocolate Candy has proven to be second best out west. I’d place him third among the four west coasties.

Media Moment


12 General Quarters Julien Leparoux Tom McCarthy 20-1

There’s a lot to like about this horse. A dynamic last race. A rising star. A common man owner/trainer. An inexpensive purchase. A valued jockey. His record is stronger than it looks on a cursory glance. General Quarters could sneak in there.

Media Moment


13 I Want Revenge Joe Talamo Jeff Mullins 3-1

I find it somewhat ironic that the favorite in the Derby is a horse that fled California to avoid Pioneerof the Nile and Chocolate Candy. Of course, his handlers would spin that just a little differently. Without a doubt, he’s a talented horse with a hot, television star jockey.

Media Moment


14 Atomic Rain Joe Bravo Kelly Breen 50-1

This horse is notunknown to me. The Annoyed handicapper has been following this horse and waiting for him to ‘splode. He’s yet to detonate, but somehow he’s managed to bully his way into the race.

Media Moment


15 Dunkirk Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher 4-1

Without a doubt, this horse will win the publicity battle. Todd will see to that. He will talk the horse up relentlessly. Unquestionably, Dunkirk had two dynamic performances with Garrett Gomez aboard. Prado takes over after Gomez passed. The last time Prado rode him, he received a 77 Beyer speed number. Dunkirk will not win.

Media Moment


16 Pioneerof the Nile Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert 4-1

Virtually a co-favorite, Pioneerof the Nile has beaten everyone out west on a synthetic track. Now, he’s in the east of a real track. When I Want revenge came east, he crushed the competition in the Gotham and Wood Memorial.

Media Moment


17 Summer Bird Chris Rosier Tim Ice 50-1

Clever copy editors will feast on juxtaposing the trainer’s name and the horse’s name. For example, Ice Keeps Cool During First Derby Experience. You have to talk about something, I guess.

Media Moment


18 Nowhere to Hide
Shaun Bridgmohan Nick Zito 50-1

What’s a Derby without Nick Zito? Magic 8-Ball, however, does not have kind things to say about the horse.

Media Moment


19 Desert Party Ramon Dominguez Saeed bin Suroor 15-1

Who knows? Regal Ransom upset Desert Party’s party in Dubai. However, we really don’t know how strong the competition was. So, who knows? We do know that traditionally these Dubai horses are mid-pack finishers at best in the Kentucky Derby. You can say that again.

Media Moment


20 Flying Private Robby Albarado D. Wayne Lukas 50-1

What’s a Derby without D. Wayne? Magic 8-Ball, however, does not have kind things to say about the horse. I will say this, however, this horse seems to have more going for him than Shoeless Nick’s horse.

Media Moment

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Kentucky Derby Post Positions

Post positions have been chosen for the Kentucky Derby. 
Square Eddie, Win Willy, and Quality Road all withdrew
over the last few days.



Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
----------------------------------------------------------------
1 West Side Bernie Stewart Elliott Kelly Breen 30-1
2 Musket Man Eibar Coa Derek Ryan 20-1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff John Velazquez Eoin Harty 30-1
4 Advice Rene Douglas Todd Pletcher 30-1
5 Hold Me Back Kent Desormeaux Bill Mott 15-1
6 Friesan Fire Gabriel Saez Larry Jones 5-1
7 Papa Clem Rafael Bejarano Gary Stute 20-1
8 Mine That Bird Calvin Borel Bennie Woolley 50-1
9 Join in the Dance Chris DeCarlo Todd Pletcher 50-1
10 Regal Ransom Alan Garcia Saeed bin Suroor 30-1
11 Chocolate Candy Mike Smith Jerry Hollendorfer 20-1
12 General Quarters Julien Leparoux Tom McCarthy 20-1
13 I Want Revenge Joe Talamo Jeff Mullins 3-1
14 Atomic Rain Joe Bravo Kelly Breen 50-1
15 Dunkirk Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher 4-1
16 Pioneerof the Nile Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert 4-1
17 Summer Bird Chris Rosier Tim Ice 50-1
18 Nowhere to Hide Shaun Bridgmohan Nick Zito 50-1
19 Desert Party Ramon Dominguez Saeed bin Suroor 15-1
20 Flying Private Robby Albarado D. Wayne Lukas 50-1

Friday, April 17, 2009

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Psycodelic Boat Ride

Keeneland swings into action this weekend with the 79,238th running of the Blue Grass Stakes.The field is full of horses whose owners are looking for the golden ticket. Here's the field:

1. Patena 10/1
2. Join the Dance 10/1
3. Theregoesjojo 7/2
4. Cliffy's Future 20/1
5. Mafaaz 12/1
6. Terrain 6/1
7. Loch Dubin 50/1
8. General Quarters 15/1
9. Charitable Man 4/1
10. Hold Me Back 3/1
11. Massone 12/1

The pundits have no idea who will win this race. All but three of these horses have won stakes races in the past. A couple of them are coming back after steep lay-offs (Charitable Man). The second betting choice, Theregoesjojo, has never won a stakes race, but was caught up in the rarefied flux of Quality Road.

Selfishly, I'm hoping Theregoesjojo and Patena go 1/2. Realistically, I think the order of finish will be Theregoesjojo, Hold Me Back, Join the Dance, Patena.



In the Arkansas Derby, Old-Fashioned will try to put Win Willy back in his place. In his last outing, Old-fashioned got caught in a speed duel and had no answer for the hard charging Win Willy. They're both back along with a cast of hopefuls.

1. Captain Cherokee 20/1
2. Papa Clem 6/1
3. Flat Out 10/1
4. Poltergeist 20/1
5. Ziegfeld 12/1
6. Flying Private 6/1
7. Summer Bird 30/1
8. Old Fashioned 9/5
9. Win Willy 7/2
10. Danger to Society 6/1

I'm looking for Old Fashioned to bounce back from his startling defeat in the Rebel. Papa Clem should provide a challenge. Win Willy, if he's a horse to be reckoned with, will be hard charging again from the rear. I wouldn't discount Danger to Society, however.



Rank

Score

Stable

Player

Hometown

1

164

!Xabbu

Thomas Ryder

Roanoke

2

135

Antilles Stable

Elizabeth Ryder

Roanoke

3

130

Poop Man, Caped Crusader of Muck

John Wallace

Berryville

4

115

Schanuci

John Ryder

Blacksburg

5

107

Clifton Pond

Rebecca Ryder

Lexington

6

83

Driving in Circles

Joey Ryder

Blacksburg

7

40

Spontaneous Combustication

Andrew Ryder

Vienna



Don't forget to pick your two supplemental horses before Saturday.





Thursday, April 2, 2009

Diving In

Diving In


The weekend will feature four exciting races in on the springboard to the Kentucky Derby. Here’s a look at the fields in the races along with selected odds. Click any hyperlink to learn more than you ever dreamed.


Santa Anita Derby I (Santa Anita)


· Chocolate Candy

· Z Day

· Unbridled Roman

· Pioneerof the Nile

· Mr. Hotstuff

· Feisty Suances

· Take the Points

· Cape Truth

· Gallant Son

· The Pamplemousse


Strong field. My favorite horse, Chocolate Candy, steps up to challenge the two clear favourites, The Pamplemousse and Pioneerof the Nile. Don’t discount Feisty Suances.

1. Pioneerof the Nile 2. Chocolate Candy 3. The Pamplemousse



Wood Memorial I (Aqueduct)


· I Want Revenge

· Lord Justice

· Cellar Dweller

· Atomic Rain

· West Side Bernie

· Imperial Council

· Just a Coincidence

· Lime Rickey



Is I Want Revenge for real? He should get a stiff challenge from Imperial Council and either West Side Bernie or Atomic Rain.

1. I Want Revenge 2. Imperial Council 3. West Side Bernie




Illinois Derby II (Hawthorne)


· Nowhere To Hide

· Giant Oak

· Lord Justice

· Toccet Rocket

· His Greatness

· Perfect Song

· Free Country

· Musket Man

· Al Khali

· II Postino

· Knight Shot



Early on, everyone was a Giant Oak fan, but he has disappointed. I’ve been hoping for Free Country to break out, but he’s been disappointing. Musket Man has looked promising.

1. Al Khali 2. Musket Man 3. Giant Oak




Bayshore III (Aqueduct)


· Hatfield

· Counter Move

· Lyin’ Heart

· Capt. Candyman Can

· Rocketing Return

· Not For Silver

· King Puma

· Gato Go Win

· Yano

· Taqarub



Capt. Candyman Can should have no reason to lose, and he won’t.

1. Capt. Candyman Can 2. Gato Go Win 3. Counter Move




In our little contest. !Xabbu still leads after a surprisingly strong weekend. With so many front-line races this weekend, more movement can be expected.



Rank

Score

Stable

Player

Hometown

1

109

!Xabbu

Thomas Ryder

Roanoke

2

83

Antilles Stable

Elizabeth Ryder

Roanoke

3

83

Poop Man, Caped Crusader of Muck

John Wallace

Berryville

4

83

Schanuci

John Ryder

Blacksburg

5

63

Clifton Pond

Rebecca Ryder

Lexington

6

67

Driving in Circles

Joey Ryder

Blacksburg

7

25

Spontaneous Combustication

Andrew Ryder

Vienna