Preview of the 2017 Kentucky Derby
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by YUM! Brands*
(*not the preview…the race; although we do like
Kentucky Fried Chicken)
It’s time for the Twenty-first Annual Ryder Family Triple Crown Handicapping Contest (henceforth abbreviated as 21ARFTCHC). Can you believe our little family contest is old enough to drink alcohol? Where does the time go? Last year Greg had the Belmont winner and drew clear to win our contest with Brenda in second and Erica coming in third.
This year there are lots of new faces among the Derby connections and several of the most familiar faces are missing. Bouncy Bob Baffert, D. Wayne Lukas, and Shoeless Nick Zito are sitting this one out, but the Todd Squad of Todd Pletcher is back to full strength with a 4-horse entry. There's no big favorite among the horses. Every time this spring a horse was on the verge of becoming the clear leader in the division they would get hurt, get sick, or just inexplicably run a bad race. Consequently, a case can be made for most of these horses to be the Derby winner, and a case can be made for them running up the track.
I've listed this year's horses and their connections below. As has been the norm the last few years more than 20 horses are listed. The Derby field is limited to only 20 horses in the starting gate, so the last two horses listed, Royal Mo and Master Plan, can only run if one or two of the other horses scratches by 9:00 AM on Friday morning. Please send me the names of your three horses by post time on Saturday which is approximately 6:46 pm EDT with NBC starting their coverage at 2:30 pm.
So here are the entrants in post position order.
[Click to Enrage]
Yadda. Yadda. Rules, See the fine print below for the details. You know the drill by now. Pick three horses in each of the Triple Crown races. Cheer like crazy. Win pretend money. The most pretend money wins actual bragging rights and the opportunity to demonstrate to your friends, family, and pets your superior handicapping skills. I will be sending a plethora of pondering points for prognosticating pony performance in a couple of separate emails. So grab your favorite handicapping pen, your dartboard, or your Magic 8 Ball, and let me know your three Derby horses.
Feel free to forward this email on to anyone I've missed in the distribution, and likewise feel free to ask to be removed from the list.
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Here is my look at factoids, rumors, and unsubstantiated opinions about the Derby runners. Below I've included the rankings from my
surprisingly successful (9 winners in 20 years) Derby handicapping
process. I evaluate each horse in six different categories, with each horse
being assigned a purely subjective rating between 1 and 10. Ten is the worst
and 1 is the best. The six ratings are then weighted and totaled according to a
secret formula. In this system, the lower the score the better.
Breeding
(B) – Does the horse have a pedigree that gives them a shot at running 1 ¼
miles faster than a slug? Do I personally like any of the horses in the
pedigree or their half-siblings, cousins, stablemates, etc.
Hype (H) - Bad marks if I
hear a horse's/trainer's name on the local news, or if I see the
horse's/trainer's name in The Roanoke Times prior to Saturday. A horse
would really have to be a hype-monster to make it through an abnormally large
amount of hockey coverage in the paper.
Name (N) - Would the name
look good on a Derby glass? Is it a clever or poetic name? What are the
headline possibilities? Is it a name that as one blogger put it, “can be
shouted without embarrassment for two minutes straight”? Negative ratings for
runallthewordstogethernames.
Mystery (M) - the dark horse
category. How stupefied will the pundits be if this horse wins? The more
stupefied the better.
Karma/best story (K) - Is there some touching, funny, sad story connected to the
horse and/or his connections? Are the connections old timers who have paid
their dues or enthusiastic newcomers? Have the connections won before or are
they still looking for that first magical win?
Annoyance
(A) - How annoying will it be to me personally if this horse and/or connections
win? This entire system is most successful when I weight this category the
highest in the ratings. As usual I am annoyed by huge fields, so I’m continuing
to weight this category heavily. Not a common approach, I know, but I am
"
The usual handicapping stuff (Hnd) - race records, workouts, post positions, speed figs, stuff
that may or may not really matter come Derby Day anyway.
And now onward to the
horses.
[Click to Enrage]
Lookin At Lee – He ran a closing 2nd to Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby last out. Prior to that he was a well-beaten 6th in the Rebel Stakes behind Sonneteer and Untrapped. He has raced twice before at Churchill Downs, finishing 2nd in one of those races. He's had a couple of leisurely workouts at Churchill Downs since mid-April, but trainer Steve Asmussen is not known for working his horses fast. This is the first of Asmussen's 3 horses in the race. His pedigree has some stamina sources, mostly on his dad's side. He's a great-grandson of Danzig which makes him the first Polish horse in the field.
Thunder Snow – The latest entry from the sheikhs of Dubai won the UAE Derby
last out at 1 3/16 miles which is just a little shorter than the Kentucky
Derby. He has enough stamina sources in his pedigree to make you think that
last 1/16 of mile won't be a big problem for him. He arrived at Churchill Downs
from Ireland this past weekend and spent a couple of days lounging in
quarantine. He has galloped a few times over the track, but won't have any
actual timed workouts before the Derby. His French jockey, Christophe Soumillon
has ridden in one previous Derby.
Fast and Accurate – He won the Spiral Stakes last out on the fake dirt at Turfway
Park. Prior to that he won a small turf stakes at the same track. He arrived at
Churchill Downs last week and had one decent workout over the track. His speed
figures are not particularly high, but there is some decent stamina in his
pedigree. I gave him a poor name rating because, while naming a horse “fast”
seems appropriate (but possibly indicating a degree of hubris the Racing Gods
might not appreciate) just how can a racehorse be accurate? Is he supposed to
accurately judge the location of the finish line? Isn't that why he has a
jockey?
Untrapped –
He faded to 6th place in the stretch run of the Arkansas Derby
in his last race, finishing behind Classic Empire and Lookin At Lee. Prior to
that he was 3rd in the Rebel Stakes behind Sonneteer. His speed
figures have been declining since finishing 2nd to Girvin 3
races back in the Risen Star Stakes. He has won a race Churchill Downs though,
and does have a lot of stamina in his pedigree. He's the 2nd of
trainer Steve Asmussen's 3 horses in the race.
Always Dreaming – He won the
Florida Derby last out by 5 lengths over State of Honor and Gunnevera. He's
been working well since then and has been particularly aggressive after arriving
at Churchill Downs. So aggressive that trainer Todd ( 1 winner from 43 horses
started in the Derby, and, yes, I'm sure he's perfectly well aware that equals
a 2.3% success rate) Pletcher changed his tack and put a stronger exercise
rider on him for his morning workouts to keep him from working too hard. Always
Dreaming is a son of 2012 Derby runnerup, Bodemeister, and has some very nice
stamina sources on his mom's side as well.
State of Honor – Unlike most of the horses in the race he can at least claim a
string of a half dozen in the money finishes, including a distant 2nd to
Always Dreaming in the Florida Derby last out. Prior to that he was 2nd to
Tapwrit in the Tampa Bay Derby and 3rd behind McCraken and
Tapwrit in the Sam F Davis Stakes. He's been at Churchill Downs for about a
month and has some decent workouts over the track. His speed figures have been
very gradually increasing, and he does have a certain amount of stamina in the
pedigree. He's the first of trainer Mark Casse's 2 horses in the race.
Girvin –
He won the Louisiana Derby last out and the Risen Star Stakes before that
beating Patch and Untrapped. He developed a quarter crack in one hoof after the
Louisiana Derby (sort of like a split fingernail only he has to run on it)
which disrupted his training schedule and forced him to wear special shoes to
protect the hoof. He did get in a final work last Saturday which was quite
good. This is trainer Joe Sharp's first entry in the Derby. Joe is married to
retired jockey, Rosie Napravnik, who has been Girvin's exercise rider. There's
some stamina in Girvin's pedigree, but there are also a lot of really good
sprinters, so it's a toss up which will prevail.
Hence –
He won the Sunland Derby last out earning the highest last race speed figure of
any horse in the Derby. Prior to that he finished a distant 7th in
the Southwest Stakes behind Lookin At Lee. He's had several sharp workouts at
Churchill Downs over the last month. Sunland Park sits at 3800' of altitude and
some people wonder if the benefits of running at that higher altitude might
last over several weeks back at much lower altitudes. His pedigree has quite a
bit of stamina anyway. He's the 3rd of trainer Steve Asmussen's
3 horses in the race (the Steve Squad?).
Irap –
He broke his maiden (won his first race) in the Blue Grass Stakes last out at
29-1 odds. Prior to that he was 4thbehind Hence in the Sunland Derby
(maybe he benefited from the high altitude?) He's been racing with no layoffs
since last October which is somewhat unusual these days. Trainer Doug O'Neill
has sent him out for a couple of mile workouts at Keeneland over the last
couple of weeks, possibly to build more stamina, although there's quite a bit
in the pedigree already. This is the same owner/trainer/jockey combo that brought
you Derby winners I'll Have Another and Nyquist. Every time I hear Irap's name
I think of the classic IRack skit from MadTV.
Gunnevera –
He was 3rd last out in the Florida Derby behind Always Dreaming
and State of Honor. Prior to that he easily won the Fountain of Youth over
Practical Joke. Three races back he was 2nd in the Holy Bull
behind Irish War Cry but ahead of Classic Empire. He should be seeing lots of
familiar faces in the starting gate on Saturday. He was bought for a mere
$16,000 at the Keeneland yearling sale, and his pedigree is full of good
stamina sources. Trainer Antonio Sano left his native Venezuela after twice
being kidnapped and held for ransom.
Battle of Midway – He ran a game 2nd to Gormley in the Santa Anita
Derby last out. He only has 4 lifetime starts, but his speed figures have been
increasing nicely in his last 3 races. He's been working steadily at Santa
Anita and shipped to Kentucky earlier this week. He won't have any official
workouts over the Churchill Downs track but will just gallop. His pedigree has
some stamina influences, but they're mostly 3 or 4 generations back. This will
be young jockey, Flavien Pratt's 1st Derby ride.
Sonneteer –
Every year it seems like there's one horse attempting to make the Derby the
first win of their career. Meet this year's entry attempting to become the
first maiden to win the Derby since Apollo in 1882. Sonneteer ran 4th behind
Classic Empire and Lookin At Lee in the Arkansas Derby and was 2nd in
the Rebel Stakes beating Untrapped 2 races back. His speed figures have been
improving over the last couple of months. His pedigree has some stamina, but
most of it is a few generations back. The brothers Desormeaux, Keith, trainer
and Kent, jockey brought us Derby runner up Exaggerator last year.
J Boys Echo – He won the Gotham 2 races back registering the 2nd highest
speed figure of any horse in the Derby, but he was 4th in the
Blue Grass last out behind Irap, Practical Joke, and McCraken. He's been
working steadily at Churchill Downs for the last month. There's some good
stamina in his pedigree mostly on his dad's side. Trainer Dale Romans is a
Louisville native still looking for his 1st Derby win. Luis
Saez picked up the mount when regular rider Robbie Albarado broke his ankle at
Keeneland last month.
Classic Empire – He won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile race last fall scoring the
highest speed figure of any horse in the Derby field, but this year has been
something of an adventure for his connections. He ran 3rd in
his 1st start, the Holy Bull, finishing behind Irish War Cry
and Gunnevera, but possible causes include being antsy on the raceday van ride
to the track from the training facility and then a foot abscess showing up a
couple of days later. He's also had a back problem which required massage
therapy, and a few times has just refused to work in the morning. His last work
at Churchill Downs was good though and trainer Mark Casse thinks his horse is
back on track. There's a lot of stamina in his pedigree.
McCraken –
He was undefeated in 4 starts until running 3rd in the Blue Grass
Stakes behind Irap and Practical Joke. His speed figures show a good race – bad
race pattern, and it looks like he's due for the good race this time. He's
impressed many observers with his workouts at Churchill Downs over the last
month. His pedigree looks like it would be good for the 1 1 /4 mile Derby
distance. Jockey Brian Hernandez chose to ride McCraken over his other regular
mount, Girvin. If he wins it will be interesting to see if any headline writers
adapt the internet meme to “Relase McCraken”.
Tapwrit –
In his last race he ran 5th in the Blue Grass behind Irap,
Practical Joke, McCraken, and J Boys Echo. Prior to that he won the Tampa Bay
Derby posting a nice speed figure. He had a sharp workout at Churchill Downs
last Friday. His pedigree has a lot of stamina, but it's a couple of
generations back. He's the 3rd member of the Todd Squad.
Irish War Cry – He won the Wood Memorial easily last out which was a nice
rebound after his bad 7th place finish in the Fountain of Youth
behind Gunnevera and Practical Joke. He is the only horse in the field to post
more than 1 triple digit speed figure earning 102's in both the Wood Memorial
and Holy Bull Stakes. He had a sharp workout at his homebase of Fair Hill
Training Center in Maryland before shipping to Churchill Downs earlier this
week. His pedigree has a lot of stamina sources.
Gormley –
The elder Ryder siblings will probably immediately flashback to Father Gormley
who was pastor of St Andrews for most of our youth. I don't know for sure, but
as a good Irishman, Father Gormley might have appreciated Gormley, the horse,
and his last race which was a win in the Santa Anita Derby over Battle of
Midway. Trainer John Shirreffs kept his horse in California and sent him out
for a nice 7 furlong workout last Saturday, possibly in an effort to build some
stamina before shipping to Churchill Downs earlier this week. The pedigree has
some pretty good stamina influences , but a lot of them are a few generations
back.
Practical Joke – He ran 2nd last out to Irap but ahead of
McCraken. Prior to that he was 2nd to Gunnevera in the Fountain
of Youth and 3rd behind Classic Empire in the Breeders' Cup
Juvenile last fall. He had a decent workout at Churchill Downs last Saturday.
His pedigree is not very promising for 1 ¼ miles, but his owner points out it
wasn't very good for the 1 1/8 mile Blue Grass Stakes either and he was closing
ground at the end of that race. He is a Polish horse though.
Patch –
He ran 2nd to Girvin in the Louisiana Derby last out in what
was only his 3rd race. He had a sharp workout at Churchill
Downs last Friday. He's a son of 2012 Belmont winner, Union Rags, and has a lot
of other stamina sources in his pedigree. His left eye became severely inflamed
last year and had to be removed, but that was after he had already been named
Patch. The lack of the eye doesn't seem to bother him at all during a race.
He's the 4th member of Todd (yes I'm sure he's aware that even if he wins this
year he'll still be 2/47 = 4.2% winning percentage) Pletcher.
Yay that's all 20! If
you're still with me my system says I'm picking:
Gunnevera
Irish War Cry
Battle of Midway
Send me your 3 picks by
post time on Saturday.
May the horse be with you. (And may the Fourth be with
you)
And with your spirit.
Lift up your bridle.
We lift them up to the jockey.
Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.
It is right to give him or her thanks and roses.
And with your spirit.
Lift up your bridle.
We lift them up to the jockey.
Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.
It is right to give him or her thanks and roses.
~The Annoyed HandicapperTM
