Greetings all,
It’s Belmont time again. There’s no Triple Crown possibility this year, but there is a chance for a Calvin Crown. Calvin Borel has a chance to become the first jockey to win all three Triple Crown races in one year riding more than one horse. Calvin has assured everyone who will listen that he’ll be on the winner this Saturday. Kent Desormeaux has called Calvin, “Naïve.” Yeah, Kent knows all about how extreme confidence in your chances can turn into easing your horse in the Belmont stretch – see Big Brown last year. Anyway, Derby winner Mine That Bird faces nine other horses Saturday, and we’ll see if Calvin’s confidence is misplaced.
As always remember the Belmont is 1 ½ miles long – a full ¼ mile (or about the length of the Churchill Downs homestretch) further than the Derby. Most of these horses will never run this far again, let alone around just two turns like they will at Belmont Park. This race has fooled more than one jockey into moving too soon only to realize with dismay he’s not even close to the finish. The horses are listed below along with the usual conglomeration of factoids, unsubstantiated rumors, snide observations, and half-baked statistics. Just for my amusement I’ve compiled a Belmont winner factor for each horse which is merely the number of times a Belmont winner shows up in the first five generations of the pedigree. It wasn’t particularly helpful for picking the winner last year, but I figure I’ll give it another shot.
It’s Belmont time again. There’s no Triple Crown possibility this year, but there is a chance for a Calvin Crown. Calvin Borel has a chance to become the first jockey to win all three Triple Crown races in one year riding more than one horse. Calvin has assured everyone who will listen that he’ll be on the winner this Saturday. Kent Desormeaux has called Calvin, “Naïve.” Yeah, Kent knows all about how extreme confidence in your chances can turn into easing your horse in the Belmont stretch – see Big Brown last year. Anyway, Derby winner Mine That Bird faces nine other horses Saturday, and we’ll see if Calvin’s confidence is misplaced.
As always remember the Belmont is 1 ½ miles long – a full ¼ mile (or about the length of the Churchill Downs homestretch) further than the Derby. Most of these horses will never run this far again, let alone around just two turns like they will at Belmont Park. This race has fooled more than one jockey into moving too soon only to realize with dismay he’s not even close to the finish. The horses are listed below along with the usual conglomeration of factoids, unsubstantiated rumors, snide observations, and half-baked statistics. Just for my amusement I’ve compiled a Belmont winner factor for each horse which is merely the number of times a Belmont winner shows up in the first five generations of the pedigree. It wasn’t particularly helpful for picking the winner last year, but I figure I’ll give it another shot.
Chocolate Candy – He’s been training at Belmont Park since his 5th place finish in the Derby. His workouts included a nice 7/8 mile work on May 25. He gets a new jockey in Garret Gomez who, despite being the top jockey in America the last two years, is still looking for his first win in a Triple Crown race. The pedigree looks pretty good for middle distance races, but there’s not a whole lot that says 1 ½ miles, and his Belmont winner factor is 2.
Dunkirk – He’s also been training steadily at Belmont Park since the Derby. He was 11th in that race after being bumped and steadied at various points. He still is a little light on race experience. The Belmont will be just his 5th lifetime start. He’s actually run the highest speed figure of any horse in the field. His pedigree has a lot of stamina a couple of generations back and his Belmont winner factor is 4. John Velazquez will be riding Dunkirk for the first time. He won the Belmont 2 years ago on Rags to Riches for trainer Todd Pletcher.
Mr. Hot Stuff – He ran 15th in the Derby after being bumped and squeezed at the start. He’s been stabled at Keeneland since then where he has two bullet works on the fake dirt. He gets a new jockey in 2-time Belmont winner, Edgar Prado. His pedigree has some stamina, and he has a Belmont winner factor of 4. His trainer, Eoin Harty, is the anti-Calvin Borel regarding his horse’s chances. He says, "I have no idea how he'll run. I'm going to throw him in there and see what happens."
Summer Bird – He closed from 16th to 6th place in the Derby. He’s been training at Belmont for the last couple of weeks including a nice 7/8 mile workout 2 weeks ago. He’s only run 4 races lifetime, with 1 win and a 3rd place finish. Kent Desormeaux will be riding him for the first time, and rookie trainer Tim Ice will be adding blinkers. There’s quite a lot of stamina in the pedigree, and he’s a son of Belmont winner, Birdstone, just like Mine That Bird. The total Belmont winner factor is 4.
Luv Gov – He ran 8th in the Preakness after going 8 wide into the stretch. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas (winner of 4 Belmonts) took him back to Churchill Downs after the race and he’s had one nice work since then. His speed figures have really improved in his last couple of races, but he still has only one lifetime win. He gets jockey Miguel Mena back who was aboard for that lone victory. The pedigree has a lot of stamina a couple of generations back and his sire, Ten Most Wanted, ran 2nd to Empire Maker in the 2003 Belmont Stakes. The Belmont winner factor is 2.
Charitable Man – He’s one of only two horses in the race that have raced at Belmont Park. He’s 2 for 2 at the track, including a win in the Peter Pan Stakes 4 weeks ago which is the traditional Belmont prep race. He was one of the leading 2 year olds last year until he was injured. He just made it back to the races in April, so he’s lightly-raced, but he seems to still be improving. He has a lot of stamina in the pedigree. He’s a son of 1999 Belmont winner, Lemon Drop Kid, and he has a total Belmont winner factor of 4. He’s one the few horses in the race with any early speed. Jockey Alan Garcia won the Belmont last year wire to wire on Da’Tara.
Mine That Bird – The Derby winner continues to impress observers with his fitness and no-nonsense demeanor during his workouts. He’s been training at Churchill Downs and won’t have any actual workouts at Belmont though. Calvin Borel is back aboard which makes trainer Chip Woolley happy, since he believes Calvin fits the horse well. Closers don’t always do as well as you might think in the Belmont because there’s usually a slower pace up front. Calvin will probably be closer to the front than usual, and might have some company when he starts his run since a good ¾’s of the field are closers too. Timing his run just right will be very important, and things could get mighty interesting on that far turn. Pedigree-wise there’s a lot of stamina (he’s a son of Belmont winner, Birdstone) and his total Belmont winner factor is 5. He’ll be getting a perfect attendance award for the Triple Crown.
Flying Private – He’s the only other horse to get a Triple Crown perfect attendance award this year. He rebounded from a last place finish in the Derby to finish 4th in the Preakness after a bit of a troubled trip. He’s had one maintenance work at Churchill Downs since then, but has no workouts at Belmont Park. He’s the most experienced horse in the field with 12 lifetime starts, but only one win. Jockey Alan Garcia chose to ride Charitable Man instead, so Julien Leparoux picks up the mount. There are some good stamina influences a few generations back in the pedigree and a Belmont winner factor of 5. He’s the only Polish horse in the field.
Miner’s Escape – It wouldn’t be a Belmont Stakes without a Shoeless Nick Zito dark horse. Except Shoeless Nick has been training this guy out in the open at Belmont Park, not up at Saratoga like he usually does with his Belmont contenders. I’m not sure what’s up with that, but I find it interesting. This horse seems to be an improving sort whose 2 lifetime wins have come in his last two starts. He seems to have some early speed, so he might try to set the pace. There is some stamina in the pedigree, and his Belmont winner factor is 5.
Brave Victory – Shoeless Nick Zito’s other dark horse in the race, who has also not been training at Shoeless Nick’s secret Saratoga hideaway. He’s one of only two horses in the race who’s run at Belmont Park before. He ran 3rd behind Charitable Man in the Peter Pan Stakes there in his last race. He was born on Jesse’s birthday. There’s not a lot of stamina in the pedigree and the Belmont winner factor is 2. Something to keep in mind though, Shoeless Nick Zito has started 20 horses in the Belmont and they’ve finished in the money 55% of the time.
So, that’s the field. Perhaps not the most scintillating bunch ever gathered, but I think there’s potential for this to be quite a race. The jockeys are going to be big factors. Will they let the few speed horses set a slow pace which may compromise the chances of the closers? Who’s going to bite the bullet and apply the pressure? Is somebody going to screw up and move too soon?
In the 13ARFTCHC we have a lead pack with $79.20 and a pack of stalkers with $64.40. We’re turning for home and it’s anybody’s race. It might take a long shot winner of Sarava-like proportions to decide this one. So pick your three ponies and send them to me by post time on Saturday which is 6:27 pm. The television coverage is being done by ABC this time. You might also want to tune into some of the great races on the undercard televised by ESPN starting at noon.
Dunkirk – He’s also been training steadily at Belmont Park since the Derby. He was 11th in that race after being bumped and steadied at various points. He still is a little light on race experience. The Belmont will be just his 5th lifetime start. He’s actually run the highest speed figure of any horse in the field. His pedigree has a lot of stamina a couple of generations back and his Belmont winner factor is 4. John Velazquez will be riding Dunkirk for the first time. He won the Belmont 2 years ago on Rags to Riches for trainer Todd Pletcher.
Mr. Hot Stuff – He ran 15th in the Derby after being bumped and squeezed at the start. He’s been stabled at Keeneland since then where he has two bullet works on the fake dirt. He gets a new jockey in 2-time Belmont winner, Edgar Prado. His pedigree has some stamina, and he has a Belmont winner factor of 4. His trainer, Eoin Harty, is the anti-Calvin Borel regarding his horse’s chances. He says, "I have no idea how he'll run. I'm going to throw him in there and see what happens."
Summer Bird – He closed from 16th to 6th place in the Derby. He’s been training at Belmont for the last couple of weeks including a nice 7/8 mile workout 2 weeks ago. He’s only run 4 races lifetime, with 1 win and a 3rd place finish. Kent Desormeaux will be riding him for the first time, and rookie trainer Tim Ice will be adding blinkers. There’s quite a lot of stamina in the pedigree, and he’s a son of Belmont winner, Birdstone, just like Mine That Bird. The total Belmont winner factor is 4.
Luv Gov – He ran 8th in the Preakness after going 8 wide into the stretch. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas (winner of 4 Belmonts) took him back to Churchill Downs after the race and he’s had one nice work since then. His speed figures have really improved in his last couple of races, but he still has only one lifetime win. He gets jockey Miguel Mena back who was aboard for that lone victory. The pedigree has a lot of stamina a couple of generations back and his sire, Ten Most Wanted, ran 2nd to Empire Maker in the 2003 Belmont Stakes. The Belmont winner factor is 2.
Charitable Man – He’s one of only two horses in the race that have raced at Belmont Park. He’s 2 for 2 at the track, including a win in the Peter Pan Stakes 4 weeks ago which is the traditional Belmont prep race. He was one of the leading 2 year olds last year until he was injured. He just made it back to the races in April, so he’s lightly-raced, but he seems to still be improving. He has a lot of stamina in the pedigree. He’s a son of 1999 Belmont winner, Lemon Drop Kid, and he has a total Belmont winner factor of 4. He’s one the few horses in the race with any early speed. Jockey Alan Garcia won the Belmont last year wire to wire on Da’Tara.
Mine That Bird – The Derby winner continues to impress observers with his fitness and no-nonsense demeanor during his workouts. He’s been training at Churchill Downs and won’t have any actual workouts at Belmont though. Calvin Borel is back aboard which makes trainer Chip Woolley happy, since he believes Calvin fits the horse well. Closers don’t always do as well as you might think in the Belmont because there’s usually a slower pace up front. Calvin will probably be closer to the front than usual, and might have some company when he starts his run since a good ¾’s of the field are closers too. Timing his run just right will be very important, and things could get mighty interesting on that far turn. Pedigree-wise there’s a lot of stamina (he’s a son of Belmont winner, Birdstone) and his total Belmont winner factor is 5. He’ll be getting a perfect attendance award for the Triple Crown.
Flying Private – He’s the only other horse to get a Triple Crown perfect attendance award this year. He rebounded from a last place finish in the Derby to finish 4th in the Preakness after a bit of a troubled trip. He’s had one maintenance work at Churchill Downs since then, but has no workouts at Belmont Park. He’s the most experienced horse in the field with 12 lifetime starts, but only one win. Jockey Alan Garcia chose to ride Charitable Man instead, so Julien Leparoux picks up the mount. There are some good stamina influences a few generations back in the pedigree and a Belmont winner factor of 5. He’s the only Polish horse in the field.
Miner’s Escape – It wouldn’t be a Belmont Stakes without a Shoeless Nick Zito dark horse. Except Shoeless Nick has been training this guy out in the open at Belmont Park, not up at Saratoga like he usually does with his Belmont contenders. I’m not sure what’s up with that, but I find it interesting. This horse seems to be an improving sort whose 2 lifetime wins have come in his last two starts. He seems to have some early speed, so he might try to set the pace. There is some stamina in the pedigree, and his Belmont winner factor is 5.
Brave Victory – Shoeless Nick Zito’s other dark horse in the race, who has also not been training at Shoeless Nick’s secret Saratoga hideaway. He’s one of only two horses in the race who’s run at Belmont Park before. He ran 3rd behind Charitable Man in the Peter Pan Stakes there in his last race. He was born on Jesse’s birthday. There’s not a lot of stamina in the pedigree and the Belmont winner factor is 2. Something to keep in mind though, Shoeless Nick Zito has started 20 horses in the Belmont and they’ve finished in the money 55% of the time.
So, that’s the field. Perhaps not the most scintillating bunch ever gathered, but I think there’s potential for this to be quite a race. The jockeys are going to be big factors. Will they let the few speed horses set a slow pace which may compromise the chances of the closers? Who’s going to bite the bullet and apply the pressure? Is somebody going to screw up and move too soon?
In the 13ARFTCHC we have a lead pack with $79.20 and a pack of stalkers with $64.40. We’re turning for home and it’s anybody’s race. It might take a long shot winner of Sarava-like proportions to decide this one. So pick your three ponies and send them to me by post time on Saturday which is 6:27 pm. The television coverage is being done by ABC this time. You might also want to tune into some of the great races on the undercard televised by ESPN starting at noon.
My picks will be:
Mine That Bird – I guess I ought to pick him at least once
Dunkirk – 10 weeks ago he was the super-est of horses
Charitable Man – I need some charity in this contest
As usual I reserve the right to be shallow and change any of these picks if I see a pretty pony in the post parade.
Safe trips to all horses and humans.
May the horse be with you.
And also with you.
Lift up your bridle.
We lift them up to the jockey.
Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.
It is right to give him thanks and white carnations.
~The Annoyed Handicapper
