Here we go again. On Saturday Big Brown will attempt to beat nine other horses and become the 12th Triple Crown winner. Thirty years ago Affirmed beat Alydar by a nose to win the last Triple Crown. Since then ten other horses have come into the Belmont with a chance but failed to win this final race. Winning the Derby is hard because you need to have a good horse, a good trip through, around, or in front of the crowded field, and a lot of luck. Winning the Preakness afterwards is harder because you need a good sturdy horse, a good trip, and a bit of luck. Winning the Belmont after these first two races is hardest of all. You need to have a very sturdy, very good horse. You need a jockey who won't panic, become impatient, or fall asleep during the long race. You need a trainer who won't panic, become impatient, or fall asleep during the three weeks after the Preakness. You need some luck and a heapin' helpin' of Destiny. Big Brown appears to have all these qualities. But... you never know. That's why they make them run around the track. By the way, if that paragraph sounds familiar, it's because it's exactly what I wrote in previous years about Funny Cide and Smarty Jones. Here we go again, indeed.
As always remember the Belmont is 1 ½ miles long – a full ¼ mile (or about the length of the Churchill Downs homestretch) further than the Derby. Most of these horses will never run this far again, let alone around just two turns. This race has fooled more than one jockey into moving too soon only to realize with dismay he’s not even close to the finish. The horses are listed below along with the usual conglomeration of factoids, unsubstantiated rumors, snide observations, and half-baked statistics.
Big Brown – They’re thinking seriously about giving him a ticker tape parade in NYC if he pulls this off and things were going great until he popped a quarter crack in his left front hoof. Trainer Rick Dutrow and hoof specialist Ian McKinlay both say it is healing very well and should not be an issue for the race. Big Brown just had a bullet work Tuesday morning on the foot, so maybe we should believe them. Big Brown has quite a bit of stamina in his pedigree (and he’s Polish too). Just for my amusement I’ve compiled a Belmont winner factor for each horse which is merely the number of times a Belmont winner shows up in the first five generations of the pedigree. Big Brown leads the field this year with six Belmont winners in his family. Kent Desormeaux will be seeking to lay to rest the ghosts of his previous Triple Crown attempt aboard Real Quiet where he lost by a nose to Victory Gallop. Some people said he moved his horse too soon in that race, let’s see if he’s more patient this time.
Guadalcanal – This maiden was literally a last minute entry. Owner-trainer Fred Seitz makes no claims that he’s going to win, but he thinks his horse is a long distance specialist who could end up in the money. Guadalcanal did lose a 1 ½ mile turf race by a nose in his last out at Churchill Downs and he’s bred to run all day on his mom’s side. He has a Belmont winner factor of three. He’s a closer, so at least he won’t get in the way if he can’t keep up. He was born on Greg’s birthday. You know the last time a maiden was entered in the Belmont by an owner who merely aspired to finish in the money Nolan’s Cat finished third behind Afleet Alex.
Macho Again – He finished a nice second in the Preakness after going 5-wide into the stretch. He actually managed to close a little ground in late stretch, but of course Big Brown was practically walking by that point. After the Preakness he returned to Churchill Downs where he had one nice maintenance work last week. The pedigree is pretty light on major stamina influences and his Belmont winner factor is only one.
Denis of Cork – He’s had a nice rest since his third place finish in the Derby, and he’s had a few good workouts at Churchill Downs. He has a good race-bad race speed figure pattern and it looks like he’s due for the bad race this time. He has a new jockey in Robbie Albarado who replaces Calvin Borel. The pedigree has quite a bit of stamina, but the Belmont winner factor is only two.
Casino Drive – The Japanese horse who’s been a topic of conversation since he arrived in the U.S. earlier this spring. He won his first start in Japan by 11 ½ lengths back in February and then won the traditional Belmont prep race, the Peter Pan Stakes, by 5 ¾ lengths in May earning a speed figure comparable to Big Brown’s. His Japanese trainer has the racing media befuddled by his training methods which include two long brisk walks for the horse each day and occasional workouts that are run so slowly they aren’t even counted as timed workouts. The most notable thing about Casino Drive is he is the half brother of Rags to Riches and Jazil the last two Belmont winners. So Big Brown is not the only horse going for a Triple in the Belmont. Casino Drive’s dam, Better Than Honour, is attempting to become the only horse to produce three consecutive winners of a Triple Crown race. His pedigree also has a Belmont winner factor of five which is second best in the race.
Da’Tara – He ran second in the Barbaro Stakes on the Preakness undercard, fifth behind Macho Again in the Derby Trial, and ninth behind Big Brown in the Florida Derby. His speed figures have been gradually improving though. Shoeless Nick Zito took him up to Saratoga to train after his last race and he had a nice workout on the deep training track up there. He’s basically the only front-runner in the race, so it might be up to jockey Alan Garcia to set the pace for Big Brown. The pedigree is pretty good for 1 ¼ miles, but the really good stamina is a couple of generations back. He does have a Belmont winner factor of three.
Tale of Ekati – He returned to Belmont Park after his nice fourth place finish in the Derby. Trainer Barclay Tagg has sounded like Goldilocks when describing his horse’s workouts. The first was too fast, the second was too slow, the last one was just right. Tale of Ekati won two races at Belmont Park last year. His pedigree has a lot of stamina on his mom’s side, and he has a Belmont winner factor of two.
Anak Nakal – His name means “mischievous child” which actually sounds a lot like his trainer Shoeless Nick Zito when it comes to the Belmont. Shoeless Nick has run twenty previous horses in the race and has one win, six seconds, and two thirds. That’s almost 50% in the money. Anak Nakal ran seventh in the Derby after going 7-wide into the stretch. After the Derby Shoeless Nick stashed him up at Saratoga where the horse has had some quite nice workouts. He’s winless this year, but did win a race at Belmont last year. He’s a son of Victory Gallop who ended Real Quiet’s Triple Crown bid by a nose ten years ago. There’s more stamina in the pedigree, but he only has a Belmont winner factor of one.
Ready’s Echo – Todd Pletcher was pointing this horse toward the VA Derby in July, but decided last weekend to try the Belmont instead. Ready’s Echo closed to finish third in the Peter Pan Stakes behind Casino Drive and earned a nice speed figure. He had a couple nice workouts at Belmont after that race. Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez will try to repeat their Belmont win with Rags to Riches last year. The pedigree has some stamina in it and he’s descended from the nice mare Becky Be Good. The Belmont winner factor is two.
Icabad Crane – He was last seen closing to finish third in the Preakness. His speed figures have been improving in his last few races and he had a nice workout at Fair Hill Training Center on Monday. The pedigree looks pretty good for stamina and the Belmont winner factor is four. Jockey Jeremy Rose won the 2005 Belmont with a nicely timed ride on Afleet Alex.
There’s the field – Is it Big Brown and More Not Ready for Prime Time Players? Or is it Big Brown and the Giant-Killer? Tune into ABC on Saturday to find out.
In the 12ARFTCHC Peter Andre has a $64 lead on Jacqueline with Gordon another $82 back in third. The rest of us are bunched tightly, contemplating our strategy as we head into the far turn. Who will make a move to catch the leaders? Send me your three picks by post time on Saturday (approx. 6:25 pm), and we’ll see.
My picks will be:
Big Brown – Again, duh …
Casino Drive – I want at least one of the Triples to happen. Besides I like the power-walking training regimen.
Ready’s Echo – He seems to be an improving sort.
Once again I reserve the right to be shallow and change any of these picks if I see a pretty pony in the post parade.
Safe trips to all horses and humans.
As always remember the Belmont is 1 ½ miles long – a full ¼ mile (or about the length of the Churchill Downs homestretch) further than the Derby. Most of these horses will never run this far again, let alone around just two turns. This race has fooled more than one jockey into moving too soon only to realize with dismay he’s not even close to the finish. The horses are listed below along with the usual conglomeration of factoids, unsubstantiated rumors, snide observations, and half-baked statistics.
Big Brown – They’re thinking seriously about giving him a ticker tape parade in NYC if he pulls this off and things were going great until he popped a quarter crack in his left front hoof. Trainer Rick Dutrow and hoof specialist Ian McKinlay both say it is healing very well and should not be an issue for the race. Big Brown just had a bullet work Tuesday morning on the foot, so maybe we should believe them. Big Brown has quite a bit of stamina in his pedigree (and he’s Polish too). Just for my amusement I’ve compiled a Belmont winner factor for each horse which is merely the number of times a Belmont winner shows up in the first five generations of the pedigree. Big Brown leads the field this year with six Belmont winners in his family. Kent Desormeaux will be seeking to lay to rest the ghosts of his previous Triple Crown attempt aboard Real Quiet where he lost by a nose to Victory Gallop. Some people said he moved his horse too soon in that race, let’s see if he’s more patient this time.
Guadalcanal – This maiden was literally a last minute entry. Owner-trainer Fred Seitz makes no claims that he’s going to win, but he thinks his horse is a long distance specialist who could end up in the money. Guadalcanal did lose a 1 ½ mile turf race by a nose in his last out at Churchill Downs and he’s bred to run all day on his mom’s side. He has a Belmont winner factor of three. He’s a closer, so at least he won’t get in the way if he can’t keep up. He was born on Greg’s birthday. You know the last time a maiden was entered in the Belmont by an owner who merely aspired to finish in the money Nolan’s Cat finished third behind Afleet Alex.
Macho Again – He finished a nice second in the Preakness after going 5-wide into the stretch. He actually managed to close a little ground in late stretch, but of course Big Brown was practically walking by that point. After the Preakness he returned to Churchill Downs where he had one nice maintenance work last week. The pedigree is pretty light on major stamina influences and his Belmont winner factor is only one.
Denis of Cork – He’s had a nice rest since his third place finish in the Derby, and he’s had a few good workouts at Churchill Downs. He has a good race-bad race speed figure pattern and it looks like he’s due for the bad race this time. He has a new jockey in Robbie Albarado who replaces Calvin Borel. The pedigree has quite a bit of stamina, but the Belmont winner factor is only two.
Casino Drive – The Japanese horse who’s been a topic of conversation since he arrived in the U.S. earlier this spring. He won his first start in Japan by 11 ½ lengths back in February and then won the traditional Belmont prep race, the Peter Pan Stakes, by 5 ¾ lengths in May earning a speed figure comparable to Big Brown’s. His Japanese trainer has the racing media befuddled by his training methods which include two long brisk walks for the horse each day and occasional workouts that are run so slowly they aren’t even counted as timed workouts. The most notable thing about Casino Drive is he is the half brother of Rags to Riches and Jazil the last two Belmont winners. So Big Brown is not the only horse going for a Triple in the Belmont. Casino Drive’s dam, Better Than Honour, is attempting to become the only horse to produce three consecutive winners of a Triple Crown race. His pedigree also has a Belmont winner factor of five which is second best in the race.
Da’Tara – He ran second in the Barbaro Stakes on the Preakness undercard, fifth behind Macho Again in the Derby Trial, and ninth behind Big Brown in the Florida Derby. His speed figures have been gradually improving though. Shoeless Nick Zito took him up to Saratoga to train after his last race and he had a nice workout on the deep training track up there. He’s basically the only front-runner in the race, so it might be up to jockey Alan Garcia to set the pace for Big Brown. The pedigree is pretty good for 1 ¼ miles, but the really good stamina is a couple of generations back. He does have a Belmont winner factor of three.
Tale of Ekati – He returned to Belmont Park after his nice fourth place finish in the Derby. Trainer Barclay Tagg has sounded like Goldilocks when describing his horse’s workouts. The first was too fast, the second was too slow, the last one was just right. Tale of Ekati won two races at Belmont Park last year. His pedigree has a lot of stamina on his mom’s side, and he has a Belmont winner factor of two.
Anak Nakal – His name means “mischievous child” which actually sounds a lot like his trainer Shoeless Nick Zito when it comes to the Belmont. Shoeless Nick has run twenty previous horses in the race and has one win, six seconds, and two thirds. That’s almost 50% in the money. Anak Nakal ran seventh in the Derby after going 7-wide into the stretch. After the Derby Shoeless Nick stashed him up at Saratoga where the horse has had some quite nice workouts. He’s winless this year, but did win a race at Belmont last year. He’s a son of Victory Gallop who ended Real Quiet’s Triple Crown bid by a nose ten years ago. There’s more stamina in the pedigree, but he only has a Belmont winner factor of one.
Ready’s Echo – Todd Pletcher was pointing this horse toward the VA Derby in July, but decided last weekend to try the Belmont instead. Ready’s Echo closed to finish third in the Peter Pan Stakes behind Casino Drive and earned a nice speed figure. He had a couple nice workouts at Belmont after that race. Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez will try to repeat their Belmont win with Rags to Riches last year. The pedigree has some stamina in it and he’s descended from the nice mare Becky Be Good. The Belmont winner factor is two.
Icabad Crane – He was last seen closing to finish third in the Preakness. His speed figures have been improving in his last few races and he had a nice workout at Fair Hill Training Center on Monday. The pedigree looks pretty good for stamina and the Belmont winner factor is four. Jockey Jeremy Rose won the 2005 Belmont with a nicely timed ride on Afleet Alex.
There’s the field – Is it Big Brown and More Not Ready for Prime Time Players? Or is it Big Brown and the Giant-Killer? Tune into ABC on Saturday to find out.
In the 12ARFTCHC Peter Andre has a $64 lead on Jacqueline with Gordon another $82 back in third. The rest of us are bunched tightly, contemplating our strategy as we head into the far turn. Who will make a move to catch the leaders? Send me your three picks by post time on Saturday (approx. 6:25 pm), and we’ll see.
My picks will be:
Big Brown – Again, duh …
Casino Drive – I want at least one of the Triples to happen. Besides I like the power-walking training regimen.
Ready’s Echo – He seems to be an improving sort.
Once again I reserve the right to be shallow and change any of these picks if I see a pretty pony in the post parade.
Safe trips to all horses and humans.
May the horse be with you.
And also with you.
Lift up your bridle.
We lift them up to the jockey.
Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.
It is right to give him thanks and white carnations.
And also with you.
Lift up your bridle.
We lift them up to the jockey.
Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.
It is right to give him thanks and white carnations.
~The Annoyed Handicapper
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