Derby observations and points to ponder

Here are some factoids, rumors, and unsubstantiated opinions about the Derby runners.

Below I've included the rankings from my occasionally successful (4 winners in 10 years) Derby handicapping process. You know the drill by now, I evaluate each horse in eight different categories, with each horse being assigned a purely subjective rating between 1 and 10. Ten is the worst and 1 is the best. The eight ratings are then weighted and totaled according to a secret formula. In this system the lower the score the better. The eight categories are as follows:

1. Breeding (B) - includes not only dosage, but if I personally liked any of the horses in the pedigree or their half-siblings, cousins, stablemates,etc., and if the pedigree does *not* contain Mr. Prospector or Storm Cat. In honor of the Jamestown 400th anniversary, I’ll give extra credit to any horse whose pedigree includes the great broodmare, Pocahontas, or her son Tom Rolfe.

2. Hype (H) - Bad marks if I hear a horse's/trainer's name on the local news, or if I see the horse's/trainer's name in The Roanoke Times prior to Sat. (A horse/trainer would have to be serious hype monster to make it past the NASCAR fans throwing beer cans at Jeff Gordon/high school sports coverage around here.)

3. Name (N) - Would the name look good on a Derby glass? Is it a clever or poetic name? What are the headline possibilities? Holy Giacomoly! was an all time favorite headline from previous years. Negative ratings for runallthewordstogethernames.

4. Mystery (M) - the dark horse category. How stupefied will the pundits be if this horse wins? The more stupefied the better.

5. Karma/best story (K) - Is there some touching, funny, sad story connected to the horse and/or his connections? Are the connections old timers ala Paul Mellon/Mack Miller with Sea Hero or are they refreshing newcomers like the Funny Cide group or the Smarty Party? Have the connections won before or are they still looking for that first magical win?

6. Photos (P) - Do I have personal snapshots of the horse? Have I seen him run in person? I have no photos of this year’s entrants, but I did see portions of some of the horses at last year’s Breeders’ Cup – hence the partial credit for some of them.

7. Annoyance (A) - How annoying will it be to me personally if this horse and/or connections win? This entire system is most successful when I weight this category the highest in the ratings. Many of the trainers and jockeys I find most annoying are either retired or have no horse in the race, but I still find twenty horse fields annoying, so I’m continuing to weight this category heavily. Not a common approach, I know, but I am "The Annoyed Handicapper."TM

8. The usual handicapping stuff (H) - you know race records, workouts, post positions, speed figs, stuff that may or may not really matter come Derby Day anyway.

And now to the horses.

Sedgefield
B-3 Hy-3 N-3 M-4 K-3 P-10 A-3 Hnd-6 Tot-41

Full brother to VA Derby winner and star turf horse, English Channel. His last race was actually on the turf and he finished 4th. He did finish a reasonable 2nd to Hard Spun on the Polytrack at Turfway before that. He’s never actually raced on a regular dirt track. He seems to be most successful running up near the lead, and some people think he’s entered mainly to be a rabbit for his stablemate, Dominican. He’s had some nice workouts at Churchill Downs over the last couple of weeks. Stamina shouldn’t be much of an issue for him. This will be the first Derby starter for both the trainer and jockey.

Curlin
B-5 Hy-5 N-4 M-3 K-4 P-10 A-2 Hnd-4 Tot-41

He’s undefeated in a total of 3 lifetime starts; none of them as a two-year-old. You have to go back to 1882 to find a Derby winner who didn’t race at 2. You have to go back to 1915 to find one who won with only three starts on the year. That’s some serious history. He has won his 3 races by a combined 28 ½ lengths including the Arkansas Derby by a record 10 ½ lengths. He’s a physically impressive red horse. He’s consistently run some of the best speed figures in the field and has been training very well at Churchill Downs. He’s done most of his training this spring on the fake dirt at Keeneland though. Most racetrackers think it’s a very tall order to win the Derby in your 4th start, but if he does they think he could be a superhorse. He usually comes from just off the pace. There is some stamina in the pedigree, particularly on his mom’s side. He has the same birthday as Andrew.

Zanjero
B-6 Hy-3 N-6 M-4 K-4 P-10 A-4 Hnd-6 Tot-51

One of the prettiest ponies in the field. He’s been running 3rd this year to various contenders such as Dominican and Circular Quay. In the Blue Grass Stakes he was just a nose behind the winner. He’s won a race at Churchill Downs before, and he’s been training well there this week. Like his stablemate, Curlin, he’s done most of his training this spring on the fake dirt at Keeneland. There’s a few nice stamina influences in his pedigree. I gave him a rather high name rating because even though it sounds cool, especially on Saturday which is Cinco de Mayo, it really is just the name of a real estate development.

Storm in May
B-7 Hy-3 N-4 M-3 K-4 P-10 A-4 Hnd-6 Tot-49

He’s a grey horse with a good name for Derby Day, particularly if it turns out stormy. He’s blind in his right eye which hasn’t bothered him racing, but probably is part of the reason he only cost $16,000 at a sale. He’s one of the most experienced horses in the field with 13 starts, including 6 starts on the turf. He finished a distant 2nd to Curlin in his last start. He worked a zippy 3 furlongs on Monday at Churchill. There’s some stamina in the pedigree, but it doesn’t scream 10 furlongs to me. Trainer Kaplan and jockey Leyva are regulars on the south Florida circuit.

Imawildandcrazyguy
B-6 Hy-2 N-10 M-2 K-4 P-10 A-7 Hnd-7 Tot-62

He’s a very pretty dappled grey horse with an awful name. Hey, I like Steve Martin, but no one needs to use his 30-year-old signature line to name a horse. If he wins it will ruin the spacing on Derby glasses for eternity. He’s won twice in 11 starts, the last time being an optional claiming race in December. He also worked a zippy 3 furlongs Monday at Churchill. There’s some nice stamina in his pedigree, but it’s a couple of generations back. He does get the Tom Rolfe pedigree extra credit. This is William Kaplan’s 2nd horse in the race. Jockey Mark Guidry is an experienced Derby rider.

Cowtown Cat
B-6 Hy-5 N-8 M-5 K-5 P-10 A-6 Hnd-7 Tot-64

The first of trainer Todd Pletcher’s platoon. He was last seen winning the Illinois Derby in a relatively slow time. He did get one of the highest speed figures in the Derby field for that race though. He has a pretty versatile running style – running on the lead or sometimes laying 4th or 5th. He’s coming off a 4 week layoff which he spent training well on Keeneland’s fake dirt. He’s a son of Distorted Humor who sired Funny Cide. He’s also descended from Danzig and therefore a Polish horse. He also gets the Pocahontas/Tom Rolfe extra pedigree credit, but the most recent generations don’t seem to help stamina-wise.

Street Sense
B-3 Hy-6 N-4 M-7 K-4 P-9 A-3 Hnd-3 Tot-45

Winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (at Churchill Downs) by 10 lengths over Circular Quay and Great Hunter, so he has the Juvy Jinx as well as the two-year-old champ jinx to overcome. Trainer Carl Nafzger brought him back this year in only 2 prep races which struck most people as being a light schedule. He beat Any Given Saturday by a nose in his 1st race back then lost the Blue Grass to Dominican by a nose on the fake dirt, so you could say he’s battle-tested this year, but his speed figures have actually been declining over the last 3 races. He’s been training extremely well at Churchill Downs for the last month. Stamina shouldn’t be an issue with his pedigree. Nafzger won the Derby in 1991 with Unbridled. Calvin Borel is a local KY jockey who’s ridden in 4 previous Derbies.

Hard Spun
B-3 Hy-4 N-4 M-5 K-3 P-10 A-2 Hnd-4 Tot-39

He’s done sort of a yin-yang training pattern for the Derby. Two weeks ago he worked a mile on Keeneland’s fake dirt running strongly. Then he came back and worked 5/8ths of a mile at Churchill Tuesday morning in :57 3/5 sec which is like the fastest Derby workout ever! Trainer Larry Jones didn’t think he worked that fast and Hard Spun seemed to do it easily with his ears flicking around down the stretch. A day later he was bucking and kicking as Jones took him out for a walk. People are torn between thinking he’s fried his chances to win the race or maybe he’s just that good. He does seem to like the track. He’s won 5 of 6 races, but of the Derby field, he’s only beaten Sedgefield. His last race was a win in the Lane’s End on the fake dirt at Turfway Park. He received a very high speed figure for that race and he’s shown a tendency to regress a bit after he runs a big number. Still that race was 6 weeks ago, so he’s had plenty of time to recover. As a son of Danzig he’s a very Polish horse and the rest of the pedigree is chock full o’ stamina. The connections get bonus karma points for not dumping Maryland Riding Demi-god Mario Pino as his jockey for some big name. At 45 years-old this will be Mario’s 1st Derby mount.

Liquidity
B-3 Hy-4 N-7 M-4 K-5 P-10 A-5 Hnd-6 Tot-54

He’s a California-based horse last seen finishing 4th behind Tiago and Sam P. in the Santa Anita Derby. He likes to run on the lead, so he could be one of the pacesetters. He’s spent the last couple of weeks training well on the fake dirt at Keeneland. There’s quite a bit of stamina in his pedigree, particularly on his mom’s side. Owner Paul Reddam made his money owning one of those cash advance chains, so the subject of financial liquidity is near and dear to his heart, but I still dislike most financial-sounding names.

Teuflesberg
B-5 Hy-3 N-5 M-3 K-3 P-9 A-3 Hnd-7 Tot-44

He set an incredibly slow pace in the Blue Grass at Keeneland and ended up finishing 4th by a neck to Dominican, Street Sense, and Zanjero. Prior to that he ran 3rd to Curlin in the Rebel Stakes. He’s another one of the multitudes who spent the last month training on the fake dirt at Keeeneland. He’s raced 5 times at Churchill Downs and has one win there. He’s named for a hill in West Berlin that used to be a site of an NSA listening post during the Cold War. He’s a son of Johannesburg with some stamina influences a couple of generations back in the pedigree. He’s owned and trained by Jamie Sanders who also rides him in the mornings. She’s trying to become the first woman to officially train a Derby winner. Stewart Elliott is seeking his second Derby win with his second Derby mount.

Bwana Bull
B-6 Hy-3 N-7 M-4 K-3 P-10 A-4 Hnd-7 Tot-52

Northern California Training God Jerry Hollendorfer brings this winner of the El Camino Real Derby, but he didn’t bring regular rider, Northern California Riding God Russell Baze, opting instead for Javier Castellano. What’s up with that? In his last race Bwana Bull ran 5th behind Tiago and Sam P. in the Santa Anita Derby. He arrived at Churchill this week and got in one of his typical slow workouts. He appears to want to stalk the pace in his races. He’s a nice-looking red horse with a white face. He’s a son of Holy Bull who sired Derby-winner Giacomo. The major stamina influences are a couple of generations back in the pedigree.

Nobiz Like Shobiz
B-3 Hy-5 N-5 M-6 K-4 P-10 A-2 Hnd-3 Tot-42

He’s one of the winners in the pretty pony contest. He can also run a little bit as evidenced by the consistently high speed figures he earns. He won the Wood Memorial in his last race over Any Given Saturday. Prior to that he was 3rd behind Scat Daddy and Stormello in the Fountain of Youth after a troubled trip. He likes to run on or near the lead, but he’s sometimes been a little immature down the stretch, lugging in, looking around, etc. Curmudgeonly trainer Barclay Tagg (trainer of Funny Cide) added blinkers and cotton in Nobiz’s ears for his last race and he was much more business-like down the stretch. He’s been training at Belmont Park for the past month and only arrived at Churchill on Wednesday. I cut him some slack on the runallthewordstogether name because owner-breeder Elizabeth Valando named him for her late husband, Tommy, who was a noted publisher of Broadway musicals. I get the impression she was saving the name for a special horse. Tagg practically gushes about this horse, saying he thought he was a Triple Crown race type of horse from the moment he saw him. Pedigree-wise he’s a grandson of Derby winner Go For Gin and has some serious stamina influences a couple of generations back.

Sam P.
B-5 Hy-4 N-3 M-3 K-4 P-10 A-3 Hnd-7 Tot-45

Another of Todd Pletcher’s platoon. After finishing 4th in the Holy Bull behind Nobiz and Scat Daddy he headed to California where he finished 2nd and 3rd behind Great Hunter and Tiago respectively, in his last two prep races. He’s been running mostly in midpack, but Pletcher is removing his blinkers for the Derby which might prompt him to run closer to the pace. He won a race at Churchill last fall beating the highly-regarded Chelokee. He’s one the few Pletcher horses to actually spend the last couple of weeks training at Churchill. He’s named after a family friend of the owner, a hump pilot in the 30’s and 40’s, who flew cargo planes over the Himalayas carrying supplies and personnel between India, Burma, and China. The pedigree is not too bad for 10 furlongs and gets some extra credit for having both Affirmed and Alydar in it.

Scat Daddy
B-7 Hy-6 N-8 M-7 K-4 P-9 A-3 Hnd-6 Tot-56

Another Pletcher platoon member. He won the two major Florida prep races in decent times beating Stormello and Nobiz Like Shobiz and earned some good speed figures. He’s come off a 5 week layoff like Barbaro did last year. He’s been training steadily at Keeneland for about the last month. He finished 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill last year. He tends to stalk mid-pack before making his move. Pletcher named him for owner James Scatuorchio who Pletcher calls Scat Daddy. Unfortunately, I tend to picture an alternate definition of “scat” when I hear the name – kinda ruins the whole thing for me. He’s another son of Johannesburg, but there’s not a whole lot of stamina in the pedigree.

Tiago
B-2 Hy-6 N-3 M-4 K-5 P-10 A-3 Hnd-4 Tot-43

He’s a half brother to 2005 Derby winner, Giacomo, and has the same closer running style. He’s also owned, trained, and ridden by the same connections as Giacomo. He’ll be making only his 5th start in the Derby, but he won his last race, the Santa Anita Derby, with an impressive closing kick. Two races back he finished up the track to Great Hunter and Sam P. He’s been working on the fake dirt at Hollywood Park, but arrived at Churchill this week. The pedigree is seriously stamina-laden.

Circular Quay
B-4 Hy-5 N-5 M-6 K-5 P-9 A-4 Hnd-5 Tot-51

Yet another Pletcher platoon member. Which Derby God did Todd offend that put almost all his horses in outside post positions? It shouldn’t affect Circular Quay (pronounced “key”) very much since he’s a closer. What might affect him is his 8 week layoff since his last race. He won the LA Derby impressively in his last start beating Zanjero, but has pretty much spent the rest of the spring training at Keeneland. Pletcher says he’s a smallish horse who needed the extra recovery time after that race. He’s won 2 races at Churchill, but he’s never run farther than 1 1/16 miles in any of his races. He is a son of Derby winner Thunder Gulch and he’s a Polish horse on his mom’s side. Owner Michael Tabor named him for a tourist port in Sydney Harbor. The horse is lucky. Tabor named the $16 million dollar yearling he bought 2 years ago, The Green Monkey, after a resort in Barbados.

Stormello
B-6 Hy-3 N-6 M-4 K-5 P-9 A-4 Hnd-5 Tot-50

He’s been racking up the frequent flyer miles this spring traveling from his home base in California to run in the Florida prep races. He ran 2nd by a nose to Scat Daddy in the Fountain of Youth and finished 4th in the Florida Derby. In between races he returned to Hollywood Park where he trained on the fake dirt. He arrived at Churchill early this week. He finished 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill last year. He’s a frontrunner, but his trainer, Bill Currin, has been working him some longer distances (including a mile work 2 weeks ago) to build up some stamina and get him to relax more. There’s quite a bit of stamina in the pedigree, but it’s all pretty much 3 and 4 generations back.

Any Given Saturday
B-3 Hy-4 N-3 M-5 K-5 P-10 A-3 Hnd-4 Tot-43

The last of the Pletcher platoon. Came off the bench to run 3rd to Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Wood Memorial for his last race. He was originally scheduled to run in the Blue Grass, but Pletcher needed a horse for the Wood with Circular Quay on the bench. Prior to the Wood Any Given Saturday lost the Tampa Bay Derby to Street Sense by a nose. He has sort of a good race-bad race pattern in his speed figures and he’s due for a good race this time. He’s been training at Keeneland lately, but he did run 2nd in a race at Churchill last fall. He’s another son of Distorted Humor which means he’s also descended from Danzig and therefore a Polish horse. He also gets the Pocahontas/Tom Rolfe extra pedigree credit. His mom’s side of the pedigree is pretty stamina laden.

Dominican
B-5 Hy-4 N-3 M-4 K-4 P-10 A-3 Hnd-6 Tot-45

He won the Blue Grass in his last start. I don’t think I’ve mentioned yet, but the Blue Grass was a very oddly-run race. It was run like a turf race on the fake dirt – very slow early, then an all out sprint down the stretch. Dominican kicked it in very well to close from 5th place to win by a nose over Street Sense and Zanjero. Two races back he won the Rushaway on the fake dirt at Turfway Park. He was also gelded prior to those two races which resolved an issue he’d had with an undescended testicle. So is he just a fake dirt horse or is he, as Thom would say, finally comfortable with the equipment he’s participating with? He does seem to have developed a preferred style of running, stalking in midpack, and don’t forget he has his stable mate, Sedgefield in there to ensure a proper pace. Most of the stamina in his pedigree comes from his mom’s side, and he does get the Tom Rolfe pedigree extra credit, but there’s still a lot of sprinting blood on his dad’s side.

Great Hunter
B-3 Hy-4 N-6 M-7 K-5 P-9 A-5 Hnd-4 Tot-53

He was forced to check in the stretch during the Blue Grass and finished 5th. Two races back he beat Sam P. in the Robert B. Lewis stakes in California. He’s only had two races this year. He finished 3rd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Churchill last year. He’s been training on the fake dirt at Hollywood Park and lately at Keeneland. He appears to like to stalk the pace, so Corey Nakatani doesn’t necessarily have to send him hard from the outside post position. He may be able to find a pocket to drop down into heading into the turn. He’s a son of the 2000 Derby runner up, Aptitude, and is bred to run all day on both sides of the pedigree.

There’s the field folks. If you’re still with me it appears I will be selecting the following:

Hard Spun – My Mario Pino bobblehead doll says, “NodNodNod!”
Curlin - Doing my best Tinkerbell impression “I believe! I believe!”
Sedgefield – The rabbits shall inherit the earth.