Orb runs past Violence

So it goes in the Fountain of Youth.

Sad news today.  There will be no Road to the Roses Fantasy Stable contest.  Maybe we should do our own.

Well, it's almost Derby Day 2012.  I haven't posted here in a long, long time,  but I thought I'd drop in long enough to share the ARFTCHC analysis by The Annoyed Handicapper.

Visit tmy Dropbox Links below


Overview 
 http://dl.dropbox.com/u/25441977/Sixteenth%20Annual%20Ryder%20Family%20Triple%20Crown%20Handicapping%20Contest.docx

Part 1
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/25441977/16ARFTCHC%20Part%201.docx

Part 2
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/25441977/16ARFTCHC%20Part%202.docx

UVA Parking

The Derby is a crap shoot. 20 horses charge out of 20 gates and
plunge to the first turn. It's the only race with that type of
potential carnage. Those who make it to the turn in good position,
stand a legitimate chance. So you really have to be a horse who breaks
well, has an initial burst of speed, and who has the stamina needed to
cover 1 and 1/4 miles, which is generally at the top-end of what m9ost
of these horses will normally race.


One horse I like is Master of Hounds. Why...well, he did well in
Dubaii and was dominant in Europe. I like Dialed In, but I don't see
him as being a horse to take charge of the race.


I'm liking Brillant Speed more and more...granted I like this horse
because he is related to Key Spirit. Spirit was rescued by my good
friend (and lifetime Hokie), J.O. Wallace. J.O. and his wife, Patty,
cared for Spirit and became his friend. Spirit passed away this
winter after living a long, unexpected life at a large farm in
Virginia.

The horse I like best right this moment is Soldat. He ran a
disappointing last race, but before that, he was golden.
Handicappers will jump on that last bad race and pump him up...they
are a superstitious lot...A quality horse that runs bad is due to run
good.


The Kentucky Derby is almost impossible to handicap. Whichever horse
wins, the price will be fantastic. Here are the horses and my simple
thoughts on their chances.


1 Archarcharch (KY) 10/1 Rail and no Bo-Rail. Good horse, probably
the second best in the field.
2 Brilliant Speed (FL) : 30/1 Sneaky good. May pull the upset.
3 Twice the Appeal (KY) 20/1: No Chance
4 Stay Thirsty (KY) 20/1: Possible winner. Good Post. Decent
tactical speed. Strong experience. Good horse.
5 Decisive Moment (FL) 30/1: No Chance
6 Comma to the Top (FL) 30/1: Strong contender. Lots of experience.
7 Pants On Fire (KY) 20/1: Sexy pick. No Chance.
8 Dialed In (KY) 4/1: Best conservative choice. Strong post.
Good performances. Strong horse.
9 Derby Kitten (KY) 30/1: No Chance
10 Twinspired (KY) 30/1: No Chance
11 Master of Hounds (KY) 30/1: My sneaky winner pick.
12 Santiva (KY) 30/1: My second sneaky winner pick
13 Mucho Macho Man (FL) 12/1: Very strong horse. Should finish
second or first.
14 Shackleford (KY) 12/1: Popular pick. No Chance.
15 Midnight Interlude (KY) 10/1: Interesting.
16 Animal Kingdom (KY) 30/1: Lots of chatter. All talk.
17 Soldat (KY) 12/1: Will win the Derby. Great horse. Had a bad
race last time.
19 Nehro (KY) 6/1: Has done NOTHING to deserve the hype.
20 Watch Me Go (FL)50/1: Who? No Chance.

Run For the Roses

Run For The Roses

The contest is up and running again.


There will be a "Fish Mojo" league, as usual...as soon as I make my stable picks.

Remember...Uncle Mo destroyed the field at the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. I saw it. What an awesome performance.

Newt's Thoughts

My sister, The Annoyed Handicapper, has rated this year's field in the
Kentucky Derby.

Here's how I'm seeing the Derby this evening...

There are 12 horses of the twenty that have a legit chance at winning.

Lookin At Lucky
Ice Box
Super Saver
Line of David
Stately Victor
American Lion
Paddy O'Prado
Devil May Care
Jackson Bend
Dublin
Sidney's Candy
Awesome Act



Rarely is a field this balanced (weak) with the stone favorite
(Eskendereya) going out prior to the final bell.

Twin California horses look strong: Sydney's Candy and Lookin For
Lucky. Unfortunately for both, they drew horrific post positions (1
and 20).

That opens up the whole contest like it's never been opened up before.

Most winners in the Derby come from protected post positions...where
they can get off as they please...(Posts 1-10)


With that in mind...here are my preliminary picks:

With that in mind...here are my preliminary picks:

1. Super Saver: Calvin Bo-Rail drew post #4. The horse is
strong...the rail is a real option for Calvin...He will maximize it.

2. Jackson Bend: This horse, ridden by Hall of Fame Jock Mike
Smith, has been the most STEADY horse in the preseason. He's butted
against Eskendereya every time and finished second by shades. To me,
at 15-1, you can't beat the bet.

3. Sydney's Candy: I know...post 20...but Joe Talamo is
Wunderkind...Will Candy waste too much working to get decent position?

4. Lookin At Lucky: This Polish (Danzig) horse has guts. The
best horse in the field, he will have to overcome everything to get
to the top. The plus side is that he has the WORLD's BEST JOCKEY
riding him.


What people need to understand about the Kentucky Derby is that it is
a handicapper's nightmare. The horses get jumbled and tossed
throughout the race. Rarely, do horses ever race in such freaking
large fields. Anything can happen to a favorite...anything goes.



PS... I could say a few good words about any horse on that 12 horse
list. Wouldn't it be funny if another Mine That Bird won. Here's
what I said about that horse last year: “There is nothing striking
about him physically; he’s just a smallish colt in a plain brown
wrapper, but he does move well.” That statement by Steve Haskin just
about sums it up." Who rode Mine That Bird??? Calvin Bo-RAIL

Derby: Your Analysis Part II

Here are the next ten horses.

2010	B	Hype	N	M	K	A	Hnd	total
Devil May Care	3	4	3	3	4	3	3	32
Conveyance	6	3	6	4	5	4	4	44
Jackson Bend	7	3	4	2	4	3	6	38
Mission Impazible	5	3	3	4	4	4	4	39
Discreetly Mine	4	3	4	4	4	4	6	41
Awesome Act	2	4	2	4	4	1	3	23
Dublin	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	40
Backtalk	5	2	5	2	4	5	7	45
Homeboykris	6	2	7	2	6	6	6	53
Sidney's Candy	3	5	4	6	4	1	3	29

Devil May Care – She's the second of trainer Todd (0 for 24 in the Derby) Pletcher's 4 horses in the race and only entered after Todd's big horse, pre-race favorite Eskendereya was injured over the weekend. With Esky out Devil May Care could get her jockey John Velazquez for the Derby and the connections decided to take a shot at the boys rather than run with the girls in KY Oaks. She's actually tied with Sidney's Candy for the highest last race speed figure in the field. She still runs a little greenly – lots of fractiousness and shying in her running lines, but Todd's adding blinkers to help her focus more. While she doesn't have a great mud pedigree rating she's won on a sloppy track and has been working very well in Churchill's mud. Stamina-wise she ought to be ok at 1 ¼ miles.

Conveyance – The second of Bouncy Bob Baffert's two horses in the race has been racing on real dirt the last 2 outings. He finished 2^nd in his last race, but won the Southwest Stakes two races back beating Dublin. Conveyance looks to be one of the speed horses in the race, but the pedigree is really iffy for 1 ¼ miles. He appears to like Churchill though, posting 2 bullet works, one of which was in the mud.

Jackson Bend – An exceptionally consistent horse who has finished 1^st or 2^nd in every race he's run. Unfortunately, all the 1st's were last year and most of the 2nd's were this year. Of course in his last two races he finished 2^nd to Eskendereya who's no chump horse. He's been working very well at Churchill, but recorded his last official workout before all the rain came. Jackson Bend is a little horse and some handicappers like little horses in the mud thinking they don't get bogged down as much as a bigger horse. His pedigree is rather non-descript with not much stamina or mud performance, but his fadder comes from a mud-loving family. He's also related to Patty's horse Key Spirit.

Mission Impazible – The 3^rd of trainer Todd (0 for 24 in the Derby) Pletcher's 4 horses in the race. He's another of the steadily improving horses. He won the Louisiana Derby 5 weeks ago in his last start. Two races back he was 4^th in the Southwest Stakes behind Conveyance and Dublin. He finished 3^rd on an off track at Churchill Downs last fall and has worked well in the mud there this week. Most of the stamina is a couple of generations back in his pedigree and he doesn't have a particularly high mud rating. His owners are in the running for tackiest silks being a combination of lime green and chocolate brown. Still, I bet they're easy to follow during a race.

Discreetly Mine – The 4^th of trainer Todd (0 for 24 in the Derby) Pletcher's 4 horses in the race. You know the thought occurs to me that even if Todd does win this year he still will only be 1 for 28 in the Derby – still only a 4% win rate, but I guess it really doesn't matter how many you run or win as long as you win at least one. Which sorta seems to be Discreetly Mine's philosophy having won only 2 times in 8 races. He did win the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds earlier this year, but then finished 4^th behind Mission Impazible in the Louisiana Derby. He's raced and won on an off track and has worked well in Churchill's mud. He looks to be one of the speed horses in the race. His pedigree has quite a bit of stamina, but some of it's a few generations back.

Awesome Act – His name practically writes its own headlines. He's a US bred horse who began his career in England and is still trained by his English trainer. He's run twice in the US this year winning the Gotham Stakes and running 3rd to Eskendereya in Wood Memorial. He had an excuse in that last race though having stumbled at the break and then lost a shoe early in the race. He worked very well in the Churchill mud on Tuesday and his pedigree is pretty mud-loving. His pedigree is also pretty good for 1 ¼ miles.

Dublin – Four time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas trains this son of 2005 3^rd place finisher (and Preakness and Belmont winner) Afleet Alex. Unlike Afleet Alex who had a tremendous burst of speed, Dublin is a grinder who has managed to grind out a second and 2 thirds this year behind horses like Lookin at Lucky, Noble's Promise, Line of David and Super Saver. Dublin has not worked particularly well in the mud and his pedigree doesn't really scream mudder, but it does have plenty of stamina. It's also interesting to note that Dublin's two worst races by far have come at Churchill – one on an off track and the other on a fast track.

Backtalk – Backed into the Derby at the last minute after other horses dropped out. Finished 3^rd behind American Lion in the Illinois Derby in his last race. He 's got a good race – bad race pattern going and we are due for the good race this time. He won a small stakes race on a sloppy Delta Downs track early this year and he was 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs last year. His mud pedigree rating is pretty low, but his sire Smarty Jones won the Derby in the slop in 2004. There's more stamina in the pedigree, but most of it is a few generations back.

Homeboykris – Rick Dutrow of Big Brown fame trains this guy who hasn't raced since finishing 2^nd in a Gulfstream Park allowance race 9 weeks ago. The race before that he finished 5^th behind Jackson Bend (among others) in the Holy Bull Stakes. He only had enough earnings to make the Derby because he won the Champagne Stakes last year beating Discreetly Mine. He's co-owned by LA Dodgers manager Joe Torre. He put in a good work on an off track at Churchill on Wednesday. His pedigree is ok for mud and stamina and he is a Polish horse.

Sidney's Candy – Diet maven Jenny Craig is back with another Candy horse after Chocolate Candy finished 5^th last year. Sidney's Candy has won his last 3 races all on the fake dirt in California. In his last race he went wire to wire beating Lookin at Lucky. He's a quality speed horse who has proven very difficult to pass in the stretch. He has the unenviable post position 20, but speed horse Big Brown won from post 20 in 2008. Twenty year old jockey Joe Talamo was on the Derby favorite I Want Revenge last year who scratched the morning of the Derby with an injury. Sidney's Candy has never raced on anything other than fake dirt, but has been working very well at Churchill Downs including a very swift workout on a sloppy surface last Saturday. He has a good mud pedigree rating. His pedigree is very international with French, Argentinian, Canadian, British, and American blood mixed in and quite a bit of stamina.

Ok, enough of that. It appears my picks will be

Awesome Act

Lookin at Lucky

Super Saver

But this really might be a year where a pretty pony in the post parade could come home first.

Safe trips to all horses and humans.

The Annoyed Handicapper