Newt's Thoughts

My sister, The Annoyed Handicapper, has rated this year's field in the
Kentucky Derby.

Here's how I'm seeing the Derby this evening...

There are 12 horses of the twenty that have a legit chance at winning.

Lookin At Lucky
Ice Box
Super Saver
Line of David
Stately Victor
American Lion
Paddy O'Prado
Devil May Care
Jackson Bend
Dublin
Sidney's Candy
Awesome Act



Rarely is a field this balanced (weak) with the stone favorite
(Eskendereya) going out prior to the final bell.

Twin California horses look strong: Sydney's Candy and Lookin For
Lucky. Unfortunately for both, they drew horrific post positions (1
and 20).

That opens up the whole contest like it's never been opened up before.

Most winners in the Derby come from protected post positions...where
they can get off as they please...(Posts 1-10)


With that in mind...here are my preliminary picks:

With that in mind...here are my preliminary picks:

1. Super Saver: Calvin Bo-Rail drew post #4. The horse is
strong...the rail is a real option for Calvin...He will maximize it.

2. Jackson Bend: This horse, ridden by Hall of Fame Jock Mike
Smith, has been the most STEADY horse in the preseason. He's butted
against Eskendereya every time and finished second by shades. To me,
at 15-1, you can't beat the bet.

3. Sydney's Candy: I know...post 20...but Joe Talamo is
Wunderkind...Will Candy waste too much working to get decent position?

4. Lookin At Lucky: This Polish (Danzig) horse has guts. The
best horse in the field, he will have to overcome everything to get
to the top. The plus side is that he has the WORLD's BEST JOCKEY
riding him.


What people need to understand about the Kentucky Derby is that it is
a handicapper's nightmare. The horses get jumbled and tossed
throughout the race. Rarely, do horses ever race in such freaking
large fields. Anything can happen to a favorite...anything goes.



PS... I could say a few good words about any horse on that 12 horse
list. Wouldn't it be funny if another Mine That Bird won. Here's
what I said about that horse last year: “There is nothing striking
about him physically; he’s just a smallish colt in a plain brown
wrapper, but he does move well.” That statement by Steve Haskin just
about sums it up." Who rode Mine That Bird??? Calvin Bo-RAIL