Derby: Your Analysis Part II

Here are the next ten horses.

2010	B	Hype	N	M	K	A	Hnd	total
Devil May Care	3	4	3	3	4	3	3	32
Conveyance	6	3	6	4	5	4	4	44
Jackson Bend	7	3	4	2	4	3	6	38
Mission Impazible	5	3	3	4	4	4	4	39
Discreetly Mine	4	3	4	4	4	4	6	41
Awesome Act	2	4	2	4	4	1	3	23
Dublin	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	40
Backtalk	5	2	5	2	4	5	7	45
Homeboykris	6	2	7	2	6	6	6	53
Sidney's Candy	3	5	4	6	4	1	3	29

Devil May Care – She's the second of trainer Todd (0 for 24 in the Derby) Pletcher's 4 horses in the race and only entered after Todd's big horse, pre-race favorite Eskendereya was injured over the weekend. With Esky out Devil May Care could get her jockey John Velazquez for the Derby and the connections decided to take a shot at the boys rather than run with the girls in KY Oaks. She's actually tied with Sidney's Candy for the highest last race speed figure in the field. She still runs a little greenly – lots of fractiousness and shying in her running lines, but Todd's adding blinkers to help her focus more. While she doesn't have a great mud pedigree rating she's won on a sloppy track and has been working very well in Churchill's mud. Stamina-wise she ought to be ok at 1 ¼ miles.

Conveyance – The second of Bouncy Bob Baffert's two horses in the race has been racing on real dirt the last 2 outings. He finished 2^nd in his last race, but won the Southwest Stakes two races back beating Dublin. Conveyance looks to be one of the speed horses in the race, but the pedigree is really iffy for 1 ¼ miles. He appears to like Churchill though, posting 2 bullet works, one of which was in the mud.

Jackson Bend – An exceptionally consistent horse who has finished 1^st or 2^nd in every race he's run. Unfortunately, all the 1st's were last year and most of the 2nd's were this year. Of course in his last two races he finished 2^nd to Eskendereya who's no chump horse. He's been working very well at Churchill, but recorded his last official workout before all the rain came. Jackson Bend is a little horse and some handicappers like little horses in the mud thinking they don't get bogged down as much as a bigger horse. His pedigree is rather non-descript with not much stamina or mud performance, but his fadder comes from a mud-loving family. He's also related to Patty's horse Key Spirit.

Mission Impazible – The 3^rd of trainer Todd (0 for 24 in the Derby) Pletcher's 4 horses in the race. He's another of the steadily improving horses. He won the Louisiana Derby 5 weeks ago in his last start. Two races back he was 4^th in the Southwest Stakes behind Conveyance and Dublin. He finished 3^rd on an off track at Churchill Downs last fall and has worked well in the mud there this week. Most of the stamina is a couple of generations back in his pedigree and he doesn't have a particularly high mud rating. His owners are in the running for tackiest silks being a combination of lime green and chocolate brown. Still, I bet they're easy to follow during a race.

Discreetly Mine – The 4^th of trainer Todd (0 for 24 in the Derby) Pletcher's 4 horses in the race. You know the thought occurs to me that even if Todd does win this year he still will only be 1 for 28 in the Derby – still only a 4% win rate, but I guess it really doesn't matter how many you run or win as long as you win at least one. Which sorta seems to be Discreetly Mine's philosophy having won only 2 times in 8 races. He did win the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds earlier this year, but then finished 4^th behind Mission Impazible in the Louisiana Derby. He's raced and won on an off track and has worked well in Churchill's mud. He looks to be one of the speed horses in the race. His pedigree has quite a bit of stamina, but some of it's a few generations back.

Awesome Act – His name practically writes its own headlines. He's a US bred horse who began his career in England and is still trained by his English trainer. He's run twice in the US this year winning the Gotham Stakes and running 3rd to Eskendereya in Wood Memorial. He had an excuse in that last race though having stumbled at the break and then lost a shoe early in the race. He worked very well in the Churchill mud on Tuesday and his pedigree is pretty mud-loving. His pedigree is also pretty good for 1 ¼ miles.

Dublin – Four time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas trains this son of 2005 3^rd place finisher (and Preakness and Belmont winner) Afleet Alex. Unlike Afleet Alex who had a tremendous burst of speed, Dublin is a grinder who has managed to grind out a second and 2 thirds this year behind horses like Lookin at Lucky, Noble's Promise, Line of David and Super Saver. Dublin has not worked particularly well in the mud and his pedigree doesn't really scream mudder, but it does have plenty of stamina. It's also interesting to note that Dublin's two worst races by far have come at Churchill – one on an off track and the other on a fast track.

Backtalk – Backed into the Derby at the last minute after other horses dropped out. Finished 3^rd behind American Lion in the Illinois Derby in his last race. He 's got a good race – bad race pattern going and we are due for the good race this time. He won a small stakes race on a sloppy Delta Downs track early this year and he was 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs last year. His mud pedigree rating is pretty low, but his sire Smarty Jones won the Derby in the slop in 2004. There's more stamina in the pedigree, but most of it is a few generations back.

Homeboykris – Rick Dutrow of Big Brown fame trains this guy who hasn't raced since finishing 2^nd in a Gulfstream Park allowance race 9 weeks ago. The race before that he finished 5^th behind Jackson Bend (among others) in the Holy Bull Stakes. He only had enough earnings to make the Derby because he won the Champagne Stakes last year beating Discreetly Mine. He's co-owned by LA Dodgers manager Joe Torre. He put in a good work on an off track at Churchill on Wednesday. His pedigree is ok for mud and stamina and he is a Polish horse.

Sidney's Candy – Diet maven Jenny Craig is back with another Candy horse after Chocolate Candy finished 5^th last year. Sidney's Candy has won his last 3 races all on the fake dirt in California. In his last race he went wire to wire beating Lookin at Lucky. He's a quality speed horse who has proven very difficult to pass in the stretch. He has the unenviable post position 20, but speed horse Big Brown won from post 20 in 2008. Twenty year old jockey Joe Talamo was on the Derby favorite I Want Revenge last year who scratched the morning of the Derby with an injury. Sidney's Candy has never raced on anything other than fake dirt, but has been working very well at Churchill Downs including a very swift workout on a sloppy surface last Saturday. He has a good mud pedigree rating. His pedigree is very international with French, Argentinian, Canadian, British, and American blood mixed in and quite a bit of stamina.

Ok, enough of that. It appears my picks will be

Awesome Act

Lookin at Lucky

Super Saver

But this really might be a year where a pretty pony in the post parade could come home first.

Safe trips to all horses and humans.

The Annoyed Handicapper