Well, it's almost Derby Day 2012.  I haven't posted here in a long, long time,  but I thought I'd drop in long enough to share the ARFTCHC analysis by The Annoyed Handicapper.

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Overview 
 http://dl.dropbox.com/u/25441977/Sixteenth%20Annual%20Ryder%20Family%20Triple%20Crown%20Handicapping%20Contest.docx

Part 1
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/25441977/16ARFTCHC%20Part%201.docx

Part 2
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/25441977/16ARFTCHC%20Part%202.docx

UVA Parking

The Derby is a crap shoot. 20 horses charge out of 20 gates and
plunge to the first turn. It's the only race with that type of
potential carnage. Those who make it to the turn in good position,
stand a legitimate chance. So you really have to be a horse who breaks
well, has an initial burst of speed, and who has the stamina needed to
cover 1 and 1/4 miles, which is generally at the top-end of what m9ost
of these horses will normally race.


One horse I like is Master of Hounds. Why...well, he did well in
Dubaii and was dominant in Europe. I like Dialed In, but I don't see
him as being a horse to take charge of the race.


I'm liking Brillant Speed more and more...granted I like this horse
because he is related to Key Spirit. Spirit was rescued by my good
friend (and lifetime Hokie), J.O. Wallace. J.O. and his wife, Patty,
cared for Spirit and became his friend. Spirit passed away this
winter after living a long, unexpected life at a large farm in
Virginia.

The horse I like best right this moment is Soldat. He ran a
disappointing last race, but before that, he was golden.
Handicappers will jump on that last bad race and pump him up...they
are a superstitious lot...A quality horse that runs bad is due to run
good.


The Kentucky Derby is almost impossible to handicap. Whichever horse
wins, the price will be fantastic. Here are the horses and my simple
thoughts on their chances.


1 Archarcharch (KY) 10/1 Rail and no Bo-Rail. Good horse, probably
the second best in the field.
2 Brilliant Speed (FL) : 30/1 Sneaky good. May pull the upset.
3 Twice the Appeal (KY) 20/1: No Chance
4 Stay Thirsty (KY) 20/1: Possible winner. Good Post. Decent
tactical speed. Strong experience. Good horse.
5 Decisive Moment (FL) 30/1: No Chance
6 Comma to the Top (FL) 30/1: Strong contender. Lots of experience.
7 Pants On Fire (KY) 20/1: Sexy pick. No Chance.
8 Dialed In (KY) 4/1: Best conservative choice. Strong post.
Good performances. Strong horse.
9 Derby Kitten (KY) 30/1: No Chance
10 Twinspired (KY) 30/1: No Chance
11 Master of Hounds (KY) 30/1: My sneaky winner pick.
12 Santiva (KY) 30/1: My second sneaky winner pick
13 Mucho Macho Man (FL) 12/1: Very strong horse. Should finish
second or first.
14 Shackleford (KY) 12/1: Popular pick. No Chance.
15 Midnight Interlude (KY) 10/1: Interesting.
16 Animal Kingdom (KY) 30/1: Lots of chatter. All talk.
17 Soldat (KY) 12/1: Will win the Derby. Great horse. Had a bad
race last time.
19 Nehro (KY) 6/1: Has done NOTHING to deserve the hype.
20 Watch Me Go (FL)50/1: Who? No Chance.

Run For the Roses

Run For The Roses

The contest is up and running again.


There will be a "Fish Mojo" league, as usual...as soon as I make my stable picks.

Remember...Uncle Mo destroyed the field at the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. I saw it. What an awesome performance.

Newt's Thoughts

My sister, The Annoyed Handicapper, has rated this year's field in the
Kentucky Derby.

Here's how I'm seeing the Derby this evening...

There are 12 horses of the twenty that have a legit chance at winning.

Lookin At Lucky
Ice Box
Super Saver
Line of David
Stately Victor
American Lion
Paddy O'Prado
Devil May Care
Jackson Bend
Dublin
Sidney's Candy
Awesome Act



Rarely is a field this balanced (weak) with the stone favorite
(Eskendereya) going out prior to the final bell.

Twin California horses look strong: Sydney's Candy and Lookin For
Lucky. Unfortunately for both, they drew horrific post positions (1
and 20).

That opens up the whole contest like it's never been opened up before.

Most winners in the Derby come from protected post positions...where
they can get off as they please...(Posts 1-10)


With that in mind...here are my preliminary picks:

With that in mind...here are my preliminary picks:

1. Super Saver: Calvin Bo-Rail drew post #4. The horse is
strong...the rail is a real option for Calvin...He will maximize it.

2. Jackson Bend: This horse, ridden by Hall of Fame Jock Mike
Smith, has been the most STEADY horse in the preseason. He's butted
against Eskendereya every time and finished second by shades. To me,
at 15-1, you can't beat the bet.

3. Sydney's Candy: I know...post 20...but Joe Talamo is
Wunderkind...Will Candy waste too much working to get decent position?

4. Lookin At Lucky: This Polish (Danzig) horse has guts. The
best horse in the field, he will have to overcome everything to get
to the top. The plus side is that he has the WORLD's BEST JOCKEY
riding him.


What people need to understand about the Kentucky Derby is that it is
a handicapper's nightmare. The horses get jumbled and tossed
throughout the race. Rarely, do horses ever race in such freaking
large fields. Anything can happen to a favorite...anything goes.



PS... I could say a few good words about any horse on that 12 horse
list. Wouldn't it be funny if another Mine That Bird won. Here's
what I said about that horse last year: “There is nothing striking
about him physically; he’s just a smallish colt in a plain brown
wrapper, but he does move well.” That statement by Steve Haskin just
about sums it up." Who rode Mine That Bird??? Calvin Bo-RAIL

Derby: Your Analysis Part II

Here are the next ten horses.

2010	B	Hype	N	M	K	A	Hnd	total
Devil May Care	3	4	3	3	4	3	3	32
Conveyance	6	3	6	4	5	4	4	44
Jackson Bend	7	3	4	2	4	3	6	38
Mission Impazible	5	3	3	4	4	4	4	39
Discreetly Mine	4	3	4	4	4	4	6	41
Awesome Act	2	4	2	4	4	1	3	23
Dublin	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	40
Backtalk	5	2	5	2	4	5	7	45
Homeboykris	6	2	7	2	6	6	6	53
Sidney's Candy	3	5	4	6	4	1	3	29

Devil May Care – She's the second of trainer Todd (0 for 24 in the Derby) Pletcher's 4 horses in the race and only entered after Todd's big horse, pre-race favorite Eskendereya was injured over the weekend. With Esky out Devil May Care could get her jockey John Velazquez for the Derby and the connections decided to take a shot at the boys rather than run with the girls in KY Oaks. She's actually tied with Sidney's Candy for the highest last race speed figure in the field. She still runs a little greenly – lots of fractiousness and shying in her running lines, but Todd's adding blinkers to help her focus more. While she doesn't have a great mud pedigree rating she's won on a sloppy track and has been working very well in Churchill's mud. Stamina-wise she ought to be ok at 1 ¼ miles.

Conveyance – The second of Bouncy Bob Baffert's two horses in the race has been racing on real dirt the last 2 outings. He finished 2^nd in his last race, but won the Southwest Stakes two races back beating Dublin. Conveyance looks to be one of the speed horses in the race, but the pedigree is really iffy for 1 ¼ miles. He appears to like Churchill though, posting 2 bullet works, one of which was in the mud.

Jackson Bend – An exceptionally consistent horse who has finished 1^st or 2^nd in every race he's run. Unfortunately, all the 1st's were last year and most of the 2nd's were this year. Of course in his last two races he finished 2^nd to Eskendereya who's no chump horse. He's been working very well at Churchill, but recorded his last official workout before all the rain came. Jackson Bend is a little horse and some handicappers like little horses in the mud thinking they don't get bogged down as much as a bigger horse. His pedigree is rather non-descript with not much stamina or mud performance, but his fadder comes from a mud-loving family. He's also related to Patty's horse Key Spirit.

Mission Impazible – The 3^rd of trainer Todd (0 for 24 in the Derby) Pletcher's 4 horses in the race. He's another of the steadily improving horses. He won the Louisiana Derby 5 weeks ago in his last start. Two races back he was 4^th in the Southwest Stakes behind Conveyance and Dublin. He finished 3^rd on an off track at Churchill Downs last fall and has worked well in the mud there this week. Most of the stamina is a couple of generations back in his pedigree and he doesn't have a particularly high mud rating. His owners are in the running for tackiest silks being a combination of lime green and chocolate brown. Still, I bet they're easy to follow during a race.

Discreetly Mine – The 4^th of trainer Todd (0 for 24 in the Derby) Pletcher's 4 horses in the race. You know the thought occurs to me that even if Todd does win this year he still will only be 1 for 28 in the Derby – still only a 4% win rate, but I guess it really doesn't matter how many you run or win as long as you win at least one. Which sorta seems to be Discreetly Mine's philosophy having won only 2 times in 8 races. He did win the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds earlier this year, but then finished 4^th behind Mission Impazible in the Louisiana Derby. He's raced and won on an off track and has worked well in Churchill's mud. He looks to be one of the speed horses in the race. His pedigree has quite a bit of stamina, but some of it's a few generations back.

Awesome Act – His name practically writes its own headlines. He's a US bred horse who began his career in England and is still trained by his English trainer. He's run twice in the US this year winning the Gotham Stakes and running 3rd to Eskendereya in Wood Memorial. He had an excuse in that last race though having stumbled at the break and then lost a shoe early in the race. He worked very well in the Churchill mud on Tuesday and his pedigree is pretty mud-loving. His pedigree is also pretty good for 1 ¼ miles.

Dublin – Four time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas trains this son of 2005 3^rd place finisher (and Preakness and Belmont winner) Afleet Alex. Unlike Afleet Alex who had a tremendous burst of speed, Dublin is a grinder who has managed to grind out a second and 2 thirds this year behind horses like Lookin at Lucky, Noble's Promise, Line of David and Super Saver. Dublin has not worked particularly well in the mud and his pedigree doesn't really scream mudder, but it does have plenty of stamina. It's also interesting to note that Dublin's two worst races by far have come at Churchill – one on an off track and the other on a fast track.

Backtalk – Backed into the Derby at the last minute after other horses dropped out. Finished 3^rd behind American Lion in the Illinois Derby in his last race. He 's got a good race – bad race pattern going and we are due for the good race this time. He won a small stakes race on a sloppy Delta Downs track early this year and he was 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs last year. His mud pedigree rating is pretty low, but his sire Smarty Jones won the Derby in the slop in 2004. There's more stamina in the pedigree, but most of it is a few generations back.

Homeboykris – Rick Dutrow of Big Brown fame trains this guy who hasn't raced since finishing 2^nd in a Gulfstream Park allowance race 9 weeks ago. The race before that he finished 5^th behind Jackson Bend (among others) in the Holy Bull Stakes. He only had enough earnings to make the Derby because he won the Champagne Stakes last year beating Discreetly Mine. He's co-owned by LA Dodgers manager Joe Torre. He put in a good work on an off track at Churchill on Wednesday. His pedigree is ok for mud and stamina and he is a Polish horse.

Sidney's Candy – Diet maven Jenny Craig is back with another Candy horse after Chocolate Candy finished 5^th last year. Sidney's Candy has won his last 3 races all on the fake dirt in California. In his last race he went wire to wire beating Lookin at Lucky. He's a quality speed horse who has proven very difficult to pass in the stretch. He has the unenviable post position 20, but speed horse Big Brown won from post 20 in 2008. Twenty year old jockey Joe Talamo was on the Derby favorite I Want Revenge last year who scratched the morning of the Derby with an injury. Sidney's Candy has never raced on anything other than fake dirt, but has been working very well at Churchill Downs including a very swift workout on a sloppy surface last Saturday. He has a good mud pedigree rating. His pedigree is very international with French, Argentinian, Canadian, British, and American blood mixed in and quite a bit of stamina.

Ok, enough of that. It appears my picks will be

Awesome Act

Lookin at Lucky

Super Saver

But this really might be a year where a pretty pony in the post parade could come home first.

Safe trips to all horses and humans.

The Annoyed Handicapper

Derby: Your Analysis Part I

Greetings all,

As promised, here is the first installment of factoids, rumors, and unsubstantiated opinions about the Derby runners. With a twenty horse field to cover I’ll be splitting this up into two emails.

Below I've included the rankings from my occasionally successful (4 winners in 13 years) Derby handicapping process. You know the drill by now. I evaluate each horse in seven different categories, with each horse being assigned a purely subjective rating between 1 and 10. Ten is the worst and 1 is the best. The seven ratings are then weighted and totaled according to a secret formula. In this system the lower the score the better. I have modified my system this year by dropping the photo category, and the remaining seven categories are as follows:

1. Breeding (B) – Does the horse have a pedigree that gives them a shot at running 1 ¼ miles faster than a slug? Do I personally like any of the horses in the pedigree or their half-siblings, cousins, stablemates,etc., and does the pedigree *not* contain Mr. Prospector or Storm Cat.

2. Hype (H) - Bad marks if I hear a horse's/trainer's name on the local news, or if I see the horse's/trainer's name in The Roanoke Times prior to Sat. (A horse/trainer would have to be a serious hype monster to make it past the Salem Red Sox/Nascar car spoiler coverage around here.)

3. Name (N) - Would the name look good on a Derby glass? Is it a clever or poetic name? What are the headline possibilities? Negative ratings for runallthewordstogethernames. A new criterion instituted last year and continued this year is, as one blogger put it, “a horse whose name can be shouted without embarrassment for two minutes straight”.

4. Mystery (M) - the dark horse category. How stupefied will the pundits be if this horse wins? The more stupefied the better.

5. Karma/best story (K) - Is there some touching, funny, sad story connected to the horse and/or his connections? Are the connections old timers ala Paul Mellon/Mack Miller with Sea Hero or are they refreshing newcomers like the Funny Cide group or the Smarty Party? Have the connections won before or are they still looking for that first magical win?

6. Annoyance (A) - How annoying will it be to me personally if this horse and/or connections win? This entire system is most successful when I weight this category the highest in the ratings. As usual I am annoyed by twenty horse fields, so I’m continuing to weight this category heavily. Not a common approach, I know, but I am "The Annoyed Handicapper."TM

7. The usual handicapping stuff (Hnd) - you know race records, workouts, post positions, speed figs, stuff that may or may not really matter come Derby Day anyway. I will also be paying attention to wet track performance this year. There is a flash flood watch in effect for Louisville on Saturday and Sunday with 1 – 2” of rain expected Saturday morning.

And now onward to the horses.

I’ve listed the first ten horses and my ratings for each.

2010	B	Hype	N	M	K	A	Hnd	total
Lookin at Lucky	3	5	3	6	4	1	3	28
Ice Box	2	3	4	5	4	3	3	33
Noble's Promise	7	4	4	4	4	4	5	44
Super Saver	2	3	6	5	4	1	4	28
Line of David	4	3	4	4	3	3	4	34
Stately Victor	3	4	3	3	4	3	5	34
American Lion	5	3	4	5	3	4	5	41
Dean's Kitten	3	3	5	6	4	4	6	43
Make Music For Me	7	2	4	2	4	4	8	43
Paddy O'Prado	4	4	6	4	4	4	5	43

Lookin at Lucky – If it weren't for bad luck he'd have no luck at all. In his last few races his running lines include the words “steadied”, “jumped heels”, and “bumped”. Now he's drawn the rail at the Derby where it's almost certain he will have to steady, jump heels, and get bumped. Still, with all his trouble in prep races he has managed to win 2 of his last 3, and he's always in the money. He was the champion 2 year old colt last year. He seems to be training well over the muddy track at Churchill Downs, posting a bullet work on Monday. His pedigree has a reasonable chance of helping him get 1 ¼ miles faster than the other horses, and he's a great-grandson of Danzig, so that makes him a Polish horse (As Thom says, “You can tell.”)

Ice Box – Shoeless Nick Zito brings this closer who won the Florida Derby 6 weeks ago. The 6 weeks off might negate his good race-bad race pattern (we're due for the bad race this time), and he's been working lights out including a bullet 4 furlongs at sloppy Churchill last Friday. He's a bit of an all or nothing horse in that he either wins or is out of the money. He's never raced on a sloppy track, but the workouts and pedigree say he ought to do ok and get the 1 ¼ miles.

Noble's Promise – He finished 5^th in the Arkansas Derby in his last start behind Line of David, Super Saver, and Dublin, but he had a rough trip in the race, sustained cuts to his legs and was dealing with a lung infection, so maybe throw that race out. Prior to that race he had finished 2^nd in his last 2 races beaten by Lookin at Lucky each time. After a sharp workout at muddy Churchill Monday morning, his lungs were checked and pronounced clear of infection and his connections decided to head for the Derby. It all sounds a bit last minute to me. He's never won at any distance over 1 1/16 miles and his pedigree is pretty suspect for anything approaching 1 ¼ miles. He does have by far the highest mud pedigree rating in the field and his workouts support that.

Super Saver - Whenever I hear his name I think Winn-Dixie. Wasn't that the store that always offered super saver discounts? They were the store that used to give out the tickets for the televised horse race sweepstakes show. Those are some of the earliest races I remember watching. Anyway Super Saver the horse finished 2nd behind Line of David in the Arkansas Derby last out. His last win actually came at Churchill Downs last fall. He's one of the speedier horses in the race, but jockey Calvin Borel might head directly for his beloved rail position after the start and tuck in behind the leaders. Super Saver has worked well over the sloppy Churchill track and has a mud-loving pedigree as well as a stamina-laden one. This is the first of trainer Todd (0 for 24 in the Derby) Pletcher's 4 horses in the race.

Line of David – He won the Arkansas Derby wire to wire in his last start holding off Super Saver and Dublin in the stretch. That was also his first race on real dirt and his first stakes race. He seems to be a steadily improving horse, but he hasn't been working particularly well at muddy Churchill even though his pedigree does say he should like the mud. He's a son of Lion Heart who finished second to Smarty Jones in the muddy 2004 Derby and there's some other stamina in the pedigree.

Stately Victor – He was last seen closing in the stretch to win the Blue Grass Stakes going away on Keeneland's fake dirt. Prior to that he'd been putting in some uninspired efforts in a couple of turf races in Florida, but he's also raced a couple of times on the dirt and showed improvement. He raced once at Churchill last fall finishing 7^th. Lately he's been working well on a sloppy training track near Churchill Downs and has really impressed observers with his appearance. His pedigree has quite a bit of stamina and some mud affinity as well.

American Lion – He won the Illinois Derby wire to wire in his last start holding off Backtalk among others. That was his first start on real dirt. Before that race he'd been running 3^rd and 4^th on the fake dirt in California behind horses like Sidney's Candy. He has something of a good race – bad race pattern and it's time for the bad race, but trainer Eoin Harty says he found a four leaf clover this week and he's seen some other good omens. American Lion had a leisurely workout in the Churchill mud on Monday but Harty said they weren't trying for anything fast. American Lion has an excellent mud pedigree rating with a reasonable amount of stamina influences.

Dean's Kitten – He won the Lane's End on the fake dirt at Turfway Park last out. Prior to that he finished 2^nd behind Paddy O'Prado on the turf at Gulfstream Park. He seems to be another one of the steadily improving horses in the race. His lone dirt race was in the mud at Belmont last fall where he finished a very distant 5^th behind Eskendereya. He been's working at the same sloppy training track as Stately Victor, but only has one so-so workout in the slop. He's a son VA Derby winner Kitten's Joy and the 1 ¼ mile distance shouldn't be an issue, but the mud might be.

Make Music for Me – He was literally the last horse in and only made the field when Endorsement was injured the morning of the post position draw. He finished 6^th in the Blue Grass last out after a troubled trip, but 2 races back he won a small stakes on the turf in California. Last fall he ran 3^rd behind Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise in the Cash Call Futurity. His pedigree is pretty iffy for the distance, but his mudder is from a mud-loving family. He will be the first Derby starter for all his connections.

Paddy O'Prado – The name rolls right off the tongue, but I always think of patio furniture when I hear it, and really, shouldn't Edgar Prado be riding this horse? Kent Desormeaux has the mount as he did when they were overtaken in the stretch of the Blue Grass and finished 2^nd to Stately Victor. Two races back he beat Dean's Kitten on the turf at Gulfstream Park. He's raced almost exclusively on turf and fake dirt, but he did make his first start on a sloppy Churchill Downs track last summer and finished an uninspired 7^th. He did post a bullet workout at sloppy Churchill last week though. His pedigree has quite a bit of stamina, but it's more slanted towards turf rather than dirt or mud.

That's the first ten.