Lambs

As we get hip deep in our little fantasy season, there are five races to consider this weekend. After going through and peeking at them, I’ve concluded that real movement in fantasy point totals is a distinct possibility. This is an unusual week. Not too many of the front-line horses are racing. Desert Party in Dubai is the most intriguing. Dunkirk and Quality Road get a lot of hype. Big Drama makes his much-anticipated return in The Swale. Aside from those four, the fields are quiet this weekend.

The real point movement will no doubt come in the trainer and jockey categories. Garrett Gomez is aboard two top contenders in the Florida Derby and Swale. Psst...Europe is a rabbit for Dunkirk. Here’s a McPeek. Click on the links and you may go somewhere.

Mar 28 2009 Florida Derby I

1 Toby the Coal Man (KY)

Julien R. Leparoux
Nicholas P. Zito

10/1

2 Quality Road (VA)

John R. Velazquez

James A. Jerkens

2/1

3 Casey's On Call (FL)

E. T. Baird

Alec Fehr

15/1

4 Dunkirk (KY)

Garrett K. Gomez

Todd A. Pletcher

9/5

5 Sincero (FL)

Elvis Trujillo

Manuel J. Azpurua

20/1

6 Theregoesjojo (KY)

Kent J. Desormeaux

Kenneth G. McPeek

5/1

7 Danger to Society (KY)

Mario Madrid

Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.

6/1

8 Europe (KY)

Christopher P. DeCarlo

Todd A. Pletcher

20/1

9 Stately Character (KY)

Rene R. Douglas

Gerald Procino

20/1

My Pick: Quality Road...Got to go with the VA horse. Plus, rabbits are tricky.

Mar 28 2009 Swale II

1 This Ones for Phil (FL)

Garrett K. Gomez

Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.

3/1

2 B Z Warrior (KY)

John R. Velazquez

Todd A. Pletcher

5/1

3 Sabi Sabi (FL)

Jose Lezcano

Edward Plesa, Jr.

8/1

4 Custom for Carlos (KY)

Kent J. Desormeaux

Eddie Kenneally

4/1

5 Brave Victory (KY)

Julien R. Leparoux

Nicholas P. Zito

4/1

6 Big Drama (FL)

Eibar Coa

David Fawkes

2/1

My Pick: This Ones For Phil...too much Drama for Big Drama

Mar 28 2009 UAE Derby II

1 Regal Ransom

Garcia Alan

bin Suroor Saeed

4-1

2 I Am The Best (GB)

French R L

Al Raihe Ali R

30-1

3 Lelah Dorak (KSA)

Prado E S

Resaque Badar

15-1

4 Muy Ponderado (ARG)

Smith W

Jbin Shafya Mubarak

50-1

5 Desert Party

Dettori L

bin Suroor Saeed

1-1

6 Redding Colliery

Egan J F

Brown Herman J

8-1

7 So Shiny (ARG)

Jara F

Barton Jerry

20-1

8 Ra Junior

Spencer J P

Meehan Brian

20-1

9 Balcarce Nov (ARG)

Marwing W

Brown Herman J

20-1

10 Jose Adan

Durcan T E

bin Suroor Saeed

12-1

11 Soy Libriano (ARG)

Ajtebi A

bin Shafya Mubarak

10-1

12 Naval Officer

Kinane M J

Barton Jerry

6-1

13 Paso de Gloria (ARG)

Supple W J

bin Shafya Mubarak

30-1

My Pick : Regal Ransom...too much hype for Desert Party

Mar 28 2009 San Miguel

1 Triumphant Flight

Espinoza V

2 Flashmans Papers (GB)

Bejarano R

3 Turk

Rosario J

4 Gotmymojoworkin

Garcia M

5 Reynaldothewizard

Flores D R

6 Charlie's Moment

Sorenson D

My Pick: Flashmans Papers

Mar 29 2009 Sunland Derby

1 Valid Stripes

Lanerie C J

2 Santamonicacanyon

Flores D

3 Advice

Velazquez J R

4 Dumar

Contreras L

5 Mayor Marv

Espinoza V

6 Scorewithcater

Baze M C

7 Mythical Power

Gomez G

8 Kelly Leak

Smith M E

9 Mine That Bird

Lambert C T

10 Infernal

Villa M A

11 Mark S the Cooler

Nakatani C S

12 Smokin' Legend

Espitia J

My Pick: Advice

In our contest, !Xabbu continues to lead the way, although his lead has gradually evaporated. Poop Man and Antilles are in hot pursuit. Clifton Pond is making a strong bid while Schanuci and Driving in Circles are spinning their heels. There is no reason for Spontaneous Combustication other than he may have thought this was some new form of SCRABBLE!

Rank	Score	Stable	Player	Hometown
1	90	!Xabbu	Thomas Ryder	Roanoke
2	79	Antilles Stable	Elizabeth Ryder	Roanoke
3	79	Poop Man, Caped Crusader of Muck	John Wallace	Berryville
4	67	Clifton Pond	Rebecca Ryder	Lexington
5	58	Driving in Circles	Joey Ryder	Blacksburg
6	57	Schanuci	John Ryder	Blacksburg
7	17	Spontaneous Combustication	Andrew Ryder	Vienna

!Xabbu Locks On

There is no clear favorite right now in the run for the roses. In fact, the whole sorting process is rather jumbled. This was a huge weekend. Undefeated Derby favorite Old-Fashioned ran in Rebel at Oaklawn Saturday and got locked in a speed duel with Silver City. Silver City tired and a 56-1 longshot, Win Willy (son of Monarchos)


There were other races that were just as important. Friesan Fire blasted the field in the Lousiana Derby at Fairgrounds. Pioneerof the Nile walked away with the San Felipe at Santa Anita. The other upset was Musket Man taking the Tampa Bay Derby with favorites Hello Broadway and popular picks General Quarters, and Bear's Rocket finishing poorly.


So with that all said, here's who I currently like...my top ten.


1. Friesan Fire: Big win is the slop at Fairgrounds Saturday


2. I Want Revenge: Most impressive 8.5 length victory in Gotham at Saratoga last week, weak field.


3. Pioneerof the Nile: Big win at San Felipe. Easy field though. Faces # 4 next...


4. The Pamplemousse: The true every man horse. Few predicted this horse to do as well as he has. The horse is named after a restaurant across from Del Mar. He's owned in part by Alex Solis II and ridden by his father.


5. Old Fashioned: My former # 1. When you look at it, his previous wins weren't all that impressive. He may have peaked too early.


6. Quality Road: A Virginia horse (yeah!) and winer of the Fountain of Youth over Theregoesjojo and my favorite, Capt Candyman Can. He may head to New York for the Wood or to the Florida Derby.


7. Dunkirk: Pletcher horse. Lightly raced. Hype.


8. Chocolate Candy: Another West coast horse (along with #3 & 4). Except he's come from Golden Gate. Undefeated...known speed but is proving skeptics wrong on distance. My second favorite horse (behind Pamplemousse)


9. Stardom Bound (Filly): She most likely won't try the Kentucky Derby.


10. Theregoesjojo: Stoopid name. Solid horse.



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In our little family contest, !Xabbu continues to lead but Poop Man, Caped Crusader of Much is making a run (pun intended).

[Click to enrage]

Decision time

Lot's of big scoring races this week in the Road to the Roses contest. League leader !Xabbu is faced with dropping one of his six stable horses that are running this week. Who will he not choose to activate?

What would !Xabbu do?

Air

Did you folks notice that until Saturday, I'm on the front page of the leaderbaord for the Run For the Roses contest?

I've never breathed that air before.

Old-Fashioned Butt whuppin'

I know. That was too easy. But it also is very true. Old Fashioned ran the Southwest Stakes today in a visually dominating manner. To put it succinctly, he looked like a Derby winner.

Old Fashioned broke well with Silver City muling* him. Silver City forged ahead and led Old Fashioned around the course until the exact moment you'd expect a champion to make the pass. He did with authority.

Silver City hung on for second, three and a half lengths back.

The field for this race was strong. Poltergeist ran as did Professor Z. Surprising Buzzin and Dreamin' finished third with Flat Out pushing hard in fourth.

*Right on his ass.

!Xabbu

Sometimes a person must speak up. However, it is preferable to sit back and listen. It's taken me several weeks of on and off again study, but I finally narrowed my fantasy stable down to ten horse for the 2009 Run For the Roses Contest.

This year, I've chosen to call my stable "!Xabbu." That name may seem an odd choice for a stable, yet, in fact, it is a special name. !Xabbu is a major character in the Otherland series by Tad Williams. !Xabbu is a Bushman from South Africa and commands the Xhosa language. That language utilizes different clicks and gutteral sounds. In !Xabbu's case, the ! in front of his name represents a postalveolar click. Anyway, !Xabbu's greatest attribute in my estimation, is his ability to thoroughly study and discect a problem or situation. !Xabbu never panics and truly understands his position in the cosmos.

!Xabbu would enjoy studying horses. He wouldn't really understand the whole betting thing, but he would very much enjoy studying their nature. !Xabbu would say that he would not understand what makes them hurry so much. In fact, he would study that exact question until he felt sure that he had a plausible theory.

Unlike !Xabbu, I've been studying the horses that were nominated for this year's Kentucky Derby. From that pool, I've whittled my choices for a stable down to my Big Ten. Here's some of my reasoning for those new to the contest this year. Keep in mind though that others have much more knowledge and wisdom than and have studied the situation far longer.

My sister, The Annoyed Handicapper, believes in a regional strategy to play this game. I've taken her idea and look for horses that play in Florida, California, Louisana/Arkansas, Kentucky and North. If I can plug in some horses from each region, I'll have a balanced stable. I also look to score early. I figure that horses that run this weekend are generally (with one exception) going to be running in perhaps two to three races before the Kentucky Derby. Horse that run in late February or March will run at most twice. I also shy away from the biggest names. For example, Midshipman is on everyone's best horse lists this year. But Midshipman was shipped to Dubai and will evolve out of sight before he might be turned loose on the Derby. Midshipman, no matter how good, will earn few points in our contest.

With all of that in mind, here's my stable:

!Xabbu

1. Chocolate Candy: West Coast...will run our of Golden Gate Saturday/Favorite. They say he's a little slow, but he hasn't lost.

2. Old Fashioned: Arkansas...will most likely run in the Southwest Stakes on Monday...Probably the overall Derby favorite...if there is such a creature these days.

3. Silver City: Arkansas...will race against Old Fashioned Monday.

4. ThePamplemousse: In my estimation, has the coolest story of the horses this year. Named after a restaurant and owned by jockeys.

5. Friesan Fire: Another winner that doesn't look impressive. Likely going to The Fountain of Youth.

6. Pioneerof the Nile: Recent impressive winner. Came from the back on a funky synthetic track. How will he handle dirt?

7. Captain Candyman Can: I almost threw out this horse because of his Sammy Davis Jr. name. I disliked Sammy Davis, except when he played the calvary soldier in some western and got shot with a bunch of arrows. The horse, however, is good and is learning to relax. !Xabbu would approve.

8. Patena: Ran second to Friesan Fire in last race. On many sexy horse lists.

9. Free Country: Tampa Bay. !Xabbu would approve of his name; !Xabbu would reccognize no borders.

10. ThereGoesJoJo: McPeek has a lot of horses. This may be the best.

The horse I waivered on the most was Haynesfield. This horse has run in new York and has won impressively against no competition. I'm thinking he won't get graded earnings wins. I also left off Poltergeist, Danger to Society, Beethoven,Well Positioned, I Want Revenge, Flying Pegasus, Giant Oak, and Vinyard Haven (who lost Thursday in Dubai). Plus, I left off the wonder sprinters. I won't tell you their names in case their speed figures stand up in longer races.

For trainers, I went with a favorite and pure mass. Larry Jones and Kenny McPeek.

I never have any luck with jockeys (that didn't sound right). I've chosen Garrett Gomez again. Gomez completely burned me last year, but I've chosen him again. However, I decided on the wonder jockey Julien Leparoux.



Family and friends are welcome to join our fantasy league in The Run For the Roses 2009 contest. Here are the details you'll need after you choose your stable:

League Name: ARFTCHC
League Identifier: 257130210
Activation Code: 3051488628


!Xabbu would say that I've said too much. I should talk less and listen more.

An Early Look at 2009

With the three year-old season underway, I thought I'd try to compile a list of horses that various people are writing about in the run up to the Kentucky Derby. The list I've compiled is included in the four pictures I've posted here. You can click each picture to enlarge it. If you want an more interactive document, click the link just below the pictures, and it will take you to a website called Drop.io. This site houses the original document on a website where you can click to download the table into your version of MS Word. Easy and Safe.

It seems like everyone was talking about a horse with Brit ties called Square Eddie. However, Square Eddie was defeated yesterday by The Pamplemousse, a horse ridden by Alex Solis and partially owned by his son, Alex Solis Jr.

Two of the horses with the brightest future were recently sold to Dubai, Midshipman and Vineyard Haven. The latter is regarded as the top of the class.

Chocolate Candy won the California Derby impressively yesterday.

Personally, I'm interested in learning more about Professor Z, Point Encounter, Donativum, and Dubinsky. Of course, the whole world will be watching to see if Nicanor, full blooded brother of Barbaro will be in any races leading up to the Derby. Early word was that he's make a play for racing later in the year and be given more time to develop. Barbaro's fans may have other opinions.

View 2009-triple-crown-doc

The Annoyed Handicapper will no doubt be along sometime with her take on this early season. Also, keep an eye on the Run to the Roses Fantasy Contest. Stable signups usually come in late January or early February.


This site has taken a vacation for a few months, but it will be updated fairly regularly at least through the Belmont. we'll see what kind of time I have after that. You may have noticed that I used the site to try out some pictures. When I had a stray picutre or two that I wanted to share on another website, I found that by posting the picture here and then linking to it from the other site, I had a cheap and easy way of having access to the photos.