Derby Pass In Review

Results: [Click Photos to Enrage] Scroll down to read The Annoyed Handicapper's review.

[Click Photos to Enrage]

Well. I can't say I expected that outcome. Mine That Bird went off at 50-1, was bumped at the start, trailed the field and then went off to win by over six lengths after a mostly rail skimming trip. Now we'll have to look at that silly name on all future Derby glasses. It's no wonder I'm The Annoyed Handicapper (TM)! It has been fascinating to read the theories people have come up with to explain Mine That Bird's win. I've begun to come around to the "perfect storm" theory myself. I believe that Mine That Bird experienced a perfect storm of many factors that combined to create a result totally out of all proportion to their individual effects. He's a small horse, lightly built, who was possibly less likely to get bogged down on a muddy, drying out track. His rail-fixated jockey kept him mostly on the inside, an area of the track where horses seemed to be running faster throughout the day. After some initial bumping out of the gate he found himself far back and away from more contact. Many of his competitors experienced a lot of bumping and contact with several sustaining minor cuts. He'd been training in New Mexico at a much higher altitude than the rest of the horses and may have built up more red blood cells to improve stamina. Or maybe there was some other reason entirely. Just don't ask me what it was.

Anyway here's the official order of finish and the race description from the Equibase chart. Note the amount of bumping and grinding that went on. It was so bad that Friesan Fire came back with a piece of Pioneerof the Nile's leg bandage lodged in his hoof.

1. Mine That Bird
2. Pioneerof the Nile
3. Musket Man
4. Papa Clem
5. Chocolate Candy
6. Summer Bird
7. Join in the Dance
8. Regal Ransom
9. West Side Bernie
10. General Quarters
11. Dunkirk
12. Hold Me Back
13. Advice
14. Desert Party
15. Mr. Hot Stuff
16. Atomic Rain
17. Nowhere to Hide
18. Friesan Fire
19. Flying Private

Race Comments: MINE THAT BIRD unhurried for a half while far back, settled with three furlongs to go, moved with a rush along the inside on the second turn, came around ATOMIC RAIN with a quarter mile to go, quickly angled back to the inside with three sixteenths to go, moved through a small opening inside JOIN IN THE DANCE approaching the furlong marker, took over for the final furlong and drew off under steady handling. PIONEEROF THE NILE brushed at the start, prompted the pace while three wide and under a rating hold, challenged once on the second turn, battled the leaders into the stretch, gained a short lead with three sixteenths to go, could not cope with the winner just inside the final furlong, drifted out under left handed urging bumping PAPPA CLEM then weakened. MUSKET MAN lost his footing a bid at the start, recovered to race within striking distance inside, angled out three wide on the backstretch, made a six wide run late on the second turn, held on well to the final furlong, was bumped with a sixteenth to go and continued with good courage to the finish. PAPA CLEM brushed with two rivals at the start and then with DUNKIRK soon after, raced under steadying restraint around the first turn when a bit too eager, raced just behind the leader in the two path into the second turn, maintained his position into the stretch, angled out five wide with less than a quarter mile to go, was bumped by PIONEER OF THE NILE near the sixteenth marker when that one drifted out then held on well while not a menace to the winner. CHOCOLATE CANDY allowed to settled after being squeezed after the start, advanced of the inside after six furlongs, moved through traffic with less than three furlongs to go, angled out four wide into the stretch but tired in the final furlong. SUMMER BIRD unhurried early while well back, split rivals with three furlongs to go, made a good gain while seven wide into the stretch but could not sustain the bid. JOIN IN THE DANCE came in and brushed MINE THAT BIRD at the start, sprinted clear and angled in, set the pace inside, responded willingly when challenged after six furlongs, battled to the stretch and tired in the final furlong. REGAL RANSOM pressed the early leader after angling in in the run to the first turn, raced just off that one while off the inside for six furlongs, made a run at the leader when asked for his best with three furlongs to go, held on well to the stretch and gave way. WEST SIDE BERNIE outrun early along the inside, failed to respond when asked to pick up his pace, angled out five wide once in the stretch and could not threaten. GENERAL QUARTERS steadied in traffic with nine furlongs to go, failed to settle around the first turn, steadied behind rivals near the six furlong marker, angled out four wide once in the second turn, came six wide in upper stretch and failed to respond in the drive. DUNKIRK broke out and stumbled after the start, came in soon after carrying inner rivals in, steadied in traffic with nine furlongs to go, raced between rivals on the first turn, angled out a bit on the backstretch,made a mild run to the second turn and failed to continue. HOLD ME BACK, bumped and squeezed back at the start, was unhurried off the inside, made a good run along the inside down the backstretch to reach a forward position, stayed on well to the final furlong and tired. ADVICE, squeezed back at the start, was reserved early off the inside, angled out late on the first turn, steadied from between rivals with six furlongs to go, recovered, made a mild middle move while off the rail but could not sustain the bid. DESERT PARTY, bumped at the start, recovered and gained a forward position four wide into the first turn, continued four wide for a mile and tired. MR. HOT STUFF steadied when bumped and squeezed back at the start, was unhurried for six furlongs while outrun, raced four wide late on the second turn and failed to respond in the stretch. ATOMIC RAIN in tight after the start, recovered to race within striking distance near the rail, made a mild run in th e two path near into second turn then tired as the winner rallied past. NOWHERE TO HIDE hit the side of the starting gate stall, continued out to bump DESERT PARTY, brushed with GENERAL QUARTERS midway through the first turn then was finished after going six furlongs. FRIESAN FIRE, bumped and squeezed at the start, raced in traffic with a little bit better than a mile to run, angled out five wide on the backstretch, made a mild run into the second turn but faded soon after. FLYING PRIVATE, five wide into the first turn when within striking distance, held on well for five furlongs and stopped.

As for our contest no one picked Mine That Bird, but we had lots of Pioneerof the Nile backers. Joey also picked Musket Man, so he has broken sharply from the gate with the rest of us jostling and bumping behind him. Your payouts are listed in the chart above.

So, it's on to Pimlico for the Preakness Stakes on May 16. Mine That Bird, Musket Man, and Papa Clem will be there. Friesan Fire and Pioneerof the Nile might run, and there should be some new names too. Maybe even the outstanding filly, Rachel Alexandra, who won the KY Oaks with devastating ease might run. She was sold Wednesday to Jess Jackson and he might be interested in putting up the money to make her eligible for the Triple Crown races. It looks like a pretty full field no matter what. I'll be back next week with the field and comments.

Until then May the horse be with you.

~The Annoyed Handicapper

PS. After Mine That Bird wins at 50-1 here are some other long shots I'd like to see payoff:

The new Star Trek movie is actually good.

VT wins a national championship in football.

World Peace.