ARFTCHC: A Look at the Main Event

Thursday, April 30, 2009

A Look at the Main Event

You can view the Derby preview articles at our Drop.io box. Just type the password: horse.

A Look at the Main Event

Here’s a look at the horses entered in this year’s Derby. You can check out the free past performances at the drf site. Other resources are available online to help you with your handicapping. Ouija Board, Magic Eight Ball. Go ahead, ask the question that’s burning in your brain.

1 West Side Bernie Stewart Elliott Kelly Breen 30-1

Back on April 9, West Side Bernie ran second to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial. Prior to that, this horse has travelled to face competition. Realistically, he doesn’t factor.

2 Musket Man Eibar Coa Derek Ryan 20-1

This horse wins. While some might argue that he should be discounted for not running against top-flight competition, you can’t dismiss his victories. Life if filled with disappointment. Coming out on top in any competition is a rare treat. Musket Man wins.

“When za bad guy is this happy, it always always means…BAD GUY Song!”

3 Mr. Hot Stuff John Velazquez Eoin Harty 30-1

This is a horse that has made a career out of finishing third to the west coast horses. Some track observers have noted that he doesn’t seem to care too much for the Churchill track.

4 Advice Rene Douglas Todd Pletcher 30-1

The odds seem right on the money to me. Ultimately, this horse should not win nor be anywhere close to the top.

5 Hold Me Back Kent Desormeaux Bill Mott 15-1

One could argue that Hold Me Back is the best of the horses that can’t win.

6 Friesan Fire Gabriel Saez Larry Jones 5-1

According to track reports, Friesan Fire has been working very well at Churchill. I’ve been most impressed with this horse. His victory in the Louisiana Derby on one of the sloppiest tracks you’ll ever see was one of the two most amazing performances of this year. Some, however, question his extended lay-off.

7 Papa Clem Rafael Bejarano Gary Stute 20-1

Papa Clem is a horse that is getting no respect. Consistently, he has run in the top two slots against the stiffest competition in the group. If I’m betting and can get 20-1 on this horse, I’d definitely place a dime wager.

8 Mine That Bird Calvin Borel Bennie Woolley 50-1

“There is nothing striking about him physically; he’s just a smallish colt in a plain brown wrapper, but he does move well.” That statement by Steve Haskin just about sums it up.

9 Join in the Dance Chris DeCarlo Todd Pletcher 50-1

So, Todd managed to get his rabbit into the race to pace Dunkirk. Here’s the problem with Todd. He thinks too much. After all, he’s lost the Kentucky Derby close to 750 times.

10 Regal Ransom Alan Garcia Saeed bin Suroor 30-1

Who knows? Regal Ransom upset Desert Party’s party in Dubai. However, we really don’t know how strong the competition was. So, who knows? We do know that traditionally these Dubai horses are mid-pack finishers at best in the Kentucky Derby.

11 Chocolate Candy Mike Smith Jerry Hollendorfer 20-1

The thinking man’s horse? I think some “experts” are over-analyzing just a bit. Chocolate Candy has proven to be second best out west. I’d place him third among the four west coasties.

12 General Quarters Julien Leparoux Tom McCarthy 20-1

There’s a lot to like about this horse. A dynamic last race. A rising star. A common man owner/trainer. An inexpensive purchase. A valued jockey. His record is stronger than it looks on a cursory glance. General Quarters could sneak in there.

13 I Want Revenge Joe Talamo Jeff Mullins 3-1

I find it somewhat ironic that the favorite in the Derby is a horse that fled California to avoid Pioneerof the Nile and Chocolate Candy. Of course, his handlers would spin that just a little differently. Without a doubt, he’s a talented horse with a hot, television star jockey.

14 Atomic Rain Joe Bravo Kelly Breen 50-1

This horse is notunknown to me. The Annoyed handicapper has been following this horse and waiting for him to ‘splode. He’s yet to detonate, but somehow he’s managed to bully his way into the race.

15 Dunkirk Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher 4-1

Without a doubt, this horse will win the publicity battle. Todd will see to that. He will talk the horse up relentlessly. Unquestionably, Dunkirk had two dynamic performances with Garrett Gomez aboard. Prado takes over after Gomez passed. The last time Prado rode him, he received a 77 Beyer speed number. Dunkirk will not win.

16 Pioneerof the Nile Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert 4-1

Virtually a co-favorite, Pioneerof the Nile has beaten everyone out west on a synthetic track. Now, he’s in the east of a real track. When I Want revenge came east, he crushed the competition in the Gotham and Wood Memorial.

17 Summer Bird Chris Rosier Tim Ice 50-1

Clever copy editors will feast on juxtaposing the trainer’s name and the horse’s name. For example, Ice Keeps Cool During First Derby Experience. You have to talk about something, I guess.

18 Nowhere to Hide Shaun Bridgmohan Nick Zito 50-1

What’s a Derby without Nick Zito? Magic 8-Ball, however, does not have kind things to say about the horse.

19 Desert Party Ramon Dominguez Saeed bin Suroor 15-1

Who knows? Regal Ransom upset Desert Party’s party in Dubai. However, we really don’t know how strong the competition was. So, who knows? We do know that traditionally these Dubai horses are mid-pack finishers at best in the Kentucky Derby. You can say that again.

20 Flying Private Robby Albarado D. Wayne Lukas 50-1

What’s a Derby without D. Wayne? Magic 8-Ball, however, does not have kind things to say about the horse. I will say this, however, this horse seems to have more going for him than Shoeless Nick’s horse.

No comments:

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)