Friday, April 27, 2007

Thinking Out Loud

Thinkin
g OUt Loud


I'm beginning to get all itchy about the Kentucky Derby. As race day approaches, I find myself going through various combinations. Here's my latest thinking.

From Bloodhorse:

3YO GRADED EARNINGS

Horse

Earnings

1 Street Sense
$1,482,000
2 Scat Daddy
$1,308,500
3 Circular Quay
$1,116,134
4 Curlin
$780,000
5 Nobiz Like Shobiz
$778,500
6 Great Hunter
$752,500
7 Stormello
$642,900
8 Dominican
$498,484
9 Tiago
$450,000
10 Cowtown Cat
$437,253
11 Hard Spun
$360,000
12 Storm in May
$227,500
13 Zanjero
$205,000
14 Xchanger
$202,890
15 Any Given Saturday
$177,969
16 Liquidity
$161,200
17 Cobalt Blue
$150,000
18 Sam P.
$146,500
19 Sedgefield
$127,500
20 Teuflesberg
$122,942
21 Imawildandcrazyguy
$104,000
22 Chelokee
$100,000
23 Reporting for Duty $100,000
24 Starbase $93,106
25 Delightful Kiss $83,000






































Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin stand out to me as the horses to beat.

Street Sense has been a monster. His BC Juvenile win was most impressive. His last race was a loss to Dominican, but I toss out that race since it was a ridiculous race on Keeneland's plodding poly track. I know that some people believe in the BCJuvenile jinx, but that horse I saw that day was amazing. Couple that with the fact that Street Sense just put in a very strong bullet work on the 24th at CD, and you may understand why I've chosen as I have.

Hard Spun is a horse that intrigues me. 6 career races. 5 career wins. The knock on him now is that his trainer is over-thinking his pre-Derby plans. Maybe, but again 6 races. 5 career wins.
Hard Spun is the last of the great Danzig’s sons. Last year, the owner of Hard Spun Stable in our little family contest sold me on a horse named Barbaro. This year, he spoke highly of Hard Spun. In a twenty horse field, that's as good an angle as any other.

Curlin had an impressive romp in the Arkansas Derby on April 7. You owe it to yourself to watch the video replay of that race on the Bloodhorse.com site. It was only his third race. No doubt he's a late comer to the scene. People are talking about this horse, his rapid improvement. He still hasn't really been tested, though. He could be the next in the line of recent Derby winners who have taken different routes to the big race; War Emblem and Smarty Jones come to my mind first.

There are lots of other horses to seriously consider. You don't get in this race unless you have credentials. You can make a legitimate case for any horse in the top ten graded earnings list plus Any Given Saturday.

But I'll stick with my top three for now. The Annoyed Handicapper will be checking in here any day now. After reading her take, I may change my mind a bit.

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