A Look at Horses

As of this post time, I don't have the final word of which horses will be entered in the Kentucky Derby the weekend. I've gathered some thoughts about some of the horses based on my observations this spring. The list is based on graded earnings. I'm no expert. I just have certain impressions. Click on the title immediately below to go to a box with a hyperlinked version of this document. The hyperlinked document has links to horse pedigree and certain race videos.

A Look at Horses

Rank, Horse, Earnings
1. Lookin At Lucky, $1,480,000
With Eskendereya gone, Lucky looks to be the horse to beat. Baffert has trotted this guy out during the spring western season. Unfortunately for Lucky, he had a bum trip the last time out in the Santa Anita Derby. His last race was simply amazing from a forgettable sense. He was positioned in the middle of the pack, ready to burst home when a horse maneuvered in front of him causing Lucky to STOP. After switching lanes, he came on to finish a strong third behind winning Sydney’s Candy.

2. Noble's Promise, $738,000
He’s won lots of money, but his last race was a disaster, The Arkansas Derby. Supposedly, he got all cut up in the first turn and needed antibiotic treatment after the race. However, if you watch the replay, his trip wasn’t really that bad. He just had no running room and seemingly not enough to get to the front.

3. Sidney's Candy, $630,000 What an effort in the Santa Anita Derby. Sidney’s Candy ran away from the strong field. Some will, undoubtedly, make this horse the new favorite. One of my friends, the guy who grew up at Charles Town, say that this is the horse. A couple of years ago, we were sitting on the first turn at Monmouth for the breeder’s Cup. The rain had just stopped in time for the day’s races. My Charles Town friend, used to big bill wagers, plopped down beside me with a handful of “Dime Supers.” After the race, he began combing the tickets and found one winner…$4,000+ So if he says that Sidney’s Candy is the horse, you have to believe him. By the way, he was also the FIRST person I heard who understood the power of Barbaro.

4. Line of David, $600,000
What a race that Arkansas Derby was in retrospect. Line of David went wire-to-wire, but Super Saver really put the screws down coming home along with Dublin. Flash in the pan? I think so.

5. Mission Impazible, $485,934
Todd Pletcher may train every horse in this race, despite the fact that he’s lost Eskendereya and Rule. Mission Impazible is his latest sexy entry. In a recent work with stablemate Rule, Mission Impazible was leading out the other horse when he simply buried him by over 15 lengths. This could be the horse for the time, a late bloomer of sorts.

6. Ice Box, $457,500
A deep late closer. That’s what I’ve read about this horse. Zito likes him I’ve been waiting for him.

7. Stately Victor, $451,112
40-1…those were the odds when Stately Victor pulled the stunning upset in The Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland a couple of weeks ago. While the field was strong, the surface was artificial. That being said, this horse really impressed and blew away the field in that race.

8. Endorsement, $400,000
By virtue of his win in the Sunland Derby, Endorsement is positioned to run in the Kentucky Derby. His times weren’t anything special, but his race savvy was intense. He rode the favorite’s, Conveyance, shoulder and then outdueled him in the stretch.

9. Conveyance, $386,000
A Baffert horse. A fallen favorite in the Sunland.

10. American Lion, $378,000
A horse that ran wire-t0o-wire in the weak Illinois Derby has little chance. I’ve said that before and been burned.

11. Dublin, $373,208
That Arkansas Derby was a fantastic race. All year, people I know have been screaming that Dublin was the horse, the one to break out. That may be true. He came steaming onto the scene against a strong Arkansas field and arguably could have taken the rcce if it had gone longer….like the Kentucky Derby.

12. Super Saver, $363,832
I’ve been on the side of Super Saver all year. His game effort in the Arkansas Derby was incredible. He almost took the speedy rabbit down.

13. Devil May Care, $363,000
She’s good. Is she Rachel good? I don’t think so. It looks like Pletcher will enter this filly in the Derby, foregoing the Kentucky Oaks.

14. Discreetly Mine, $340,000
Another Pletcher horse. Discreetly Mine blasted the strong field in the Risen Star. This is one of my longshot possibilities.

15. Dean's Kitten, $326,475
I have little knowledge.

16. Interactif, $307,950
Will he run or not?

17. Awesome Act, $285,000
Won the Gotham over a weak field with an explosion on the home turn.

18. Paddy O'Prado, $250,950
Intriguing. Lightly raced. Won the Palm Beach Stakes over Dean’s Kitten.

19. Homeboykris, $250,500

20, Jackson Bend, $230,000
Looks like this second fiddle to Eskendereya will get into the Derby. Don’t discount this horse.


21. Backtalk, $225,916

22. Make Music for Me, $218,750

23. Pleasant Prince, $189,278

24. A Little Warm, $180,000

25. Setsuko, $180,000

Green Weekend

The country is gearing up for a green beer binge. I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. Just beware.

The ARFTCHC League contest on the Road to the Roses contest, sponsored by Churchill Yums Brand race track, ratchets upward this weekend. Three races are on the slate: San Felipe, Rebel, and Tampa Bay Derby.

After glancing for about ten seconds at the PP's, I have some picks.

In San Felipe, look for American Lion to break through. Interactif and Sydney's Candy will all be hanging around.

The Rebel looks to be the most intriguing race Saturday. Dublin, Lookin At Lucky, and Noble's Promise get the most hype, but I think UhOh Bango might sneak in there.

In the Tampa Bay Derby, I see Super Saver and Odysseus battling it out with Uptowncharlybrown trailing behind his ridiculously long and annoying name.


Our little contest league is off to a flying start. !Xabbu (me) is off to a fast start over Rohan. Other stables are still within striking as !Xabbu only has two horses racing this weekend. The Majestic Pickle (5) and Annuit Coeptis (4) stand to make the greatest gains this week assuming they are fat with trainers and jockeys.


As The Annoyed Handicapper says, "May the horse be with you."


I leave you with words of wisdom from Mojosnodbuster, "We must teach our youth to make gravy."

A New Season...A Look Ahead

If you've managed to ever see this blog before, you are most likely a family member or friend. Most of the stuff on this blog relates to a silly little family contest "The Annoyed Handicapper" began many years ago now. In that contest, you pick the top three horses in each of the three Triple Crown races and make an imaginary $2 wager utilizing all potential combinations.

Each Winter/Spring for the past few years, many of us have participated in a Fantasy contest sponsored by Churchill Downs called "Road to the Roses." Several years ago, The Annoyed Handicapper finished in the top 100 of this international contest out of close to 20,000 participants. Each participant selects ten Triple Crown nominated horses, two jockeys, and two trainers and collects points as their horses win, place or show in selected prep races to the Kentucky Derby. For the past two years, we've even had our own fantasy stable league called ARFTCHC (Annual Ryder Family Triple Crown Horse Challenge).


If you'd like to join us, here's the link and the numbers you'll need.

ARFTCHC
League # 3462563179
Activation Code # 2755712896

When it comes to picking your ten horses, your mind can quickly get numb to the possibilities. Here's a quick look at some of the over 300 horses that have been nominated.


A Look at a Bunch of Horses

I compiled this list by looking on various sites and simply writing down the horses that were mentioned in various publications.


As for my !Xabbu stable this year, I've settled on the following ten horses. (In no particular order)

1. D'Funnybone: Dutrow/Prado I chose this horse because he's in action this weekend in the Hutcheson at Gulfstream. I'm not a big fan of Dr. Dutrow, and I hate this horse's name.

2. Rule:Pletcher/Velazquez Pletcher has a lot of horses nominated this year. Rule may be his best. Rule is an awesome name. Simple. Dignified.

3. Ron the Greek: Amoss/Graham Ron the Greek is highly regarded. More importantly, he's running this weekend at Fairgrounds in the Risen Star. A silly name.

4. Lookin at Lucky: Baffert/Gomez Like Pletcher, Baffert has many horses nominated this year. The last couple of years he's sort of crapped out. With Gomez, however, all things are possible.

5. Connemara: Pletcher/R. Baze Anotrher Pletcher horse, and one that is running this weekend out west at Golden Gate's El Camino. It's always good to stash a few western horses in you stable. Diversify is what I say.

6. Eskendereya: Pletcher/Castelano Another Pletcher horse. One with a very unusual name.

7. Super Saver: Pletcher/Borel Another Pletcher horse. I wonder if Pletcher really has such a powerful stable or if this is all a bunch of Pletcher-hype.

8. Jackson Bend: Zito/Rose Shoeless Joe is back with a highly regarded horse. Jackson Bend is a name that reminds me of Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Jackson Hole, you may remember, was one of the reported secret hideaways of Vice President Dick Chaney. I dislike Dick, but I like Zito. Yang and Ying.

9. Tiz Chrome: Baffert/Gomez You can't go wrong with Baffert/Gomez, but I'm not a big fan of Tizzes.

10. Buddy's Saint: Levine/Lezcano Perhaps this is the horse. Some say he's a few races away, but his potential is indefinite[sic].


I was on the fence with a few others and ultimately left them off my initial list.

Aikenette, William's Kitten, Pulsion, A Little Warm, Noble's Promise, Maximus Ruler (Best Name in Show) American Lion, and Conveyance.

Pssst... Lentenor is one to keep an eye on despite his recent loss on turf.


There are five races that count in the fantasy contest this week/ At Gulfstream, the Hutcheson and Fountain of Youth will be contested. Turf Paradise Derby, Elcamino Derby, and Risen Star Stakes will also be run at different tracks.

A Day at the Races

My sister and I went on our yearly pilgrimage to Colonial Downs yesterday and proceeded to receive entertainment for no cost-a good day at the track.

Weather was excellent. Under shade. Breezy. Low humidity. Nice.

Crowds were light. No big races other than "The DaHoss Stakes."

Highlights:
1. The Italian Sausage with grilled onions/peppers....divine.

2. Rosemary Homeister, Jr. : She's an amazing jockey. Yesterday, she won four races and placed a couple of other times. She now leads the Colonial meet in wins. Homeister places a Jr. after name since she's named after her mother and her mother is a trainer. So, frequently in her early career back in the 90's, she would ride her mother's horses. The Jr. identifies them on the program. In the featured race, her mount scratched prior to the race, so she (being the top jock of the meet) was able to pick up an 18/1 horse named Izzy Speaking. Izzy is a fine horse but was jumping in distance from 5f to a mile. Izzy was buried at the start. The field was strong with several graded stakes winners racing. Homeister kept him mid-pack going through the turn home, but he was sealed off. Then she kicked the gas and directed the horse through two sliver openings and blasted him to the front for a driving win. Gutsy ride. Risk/reward.

3. Drunk "Hoooooooooooo-Hooooooooooooooo!" guy: This guy, who had a few too many beers won a sum of money on a race or two. He celebrated by dancing around the facility"Hooooo-Hoooooing" (It was also Hooter's day...lots of girls in skin-tight orange panties who looked four years YOUNGER than my 18 year old daughter. :( ) Anyway, "Hooo-hooo-ing Guy screamed out that this stuff is so easy and he was "...just a rookie!" as he stepped all over the full beer cup he'd set down on the ground. Talk about beginner's luck. He'll never remember the fun he had.

4. Sunset over the Blue Ridge Mtns: From 8:30-9:00 last night, the sun put on a powerful color display as we turned away from it. I thought at the time that fireworks mimic the glorious colors of such sunsets.

5. Dime Supers: A great way to spend that loose change. I used Quick Pick (computer picks numbers). On one race, I had these numbers 8-3-1-2. The winning order was 8-5-1-2...just one odd number away from being set for life.



What a great day. We'll most likely return for the busy Virginia Derby day in middle July.

13ARFTCHC - Belmont field

Greetings all,

It’s Belmont time again. There’s no Triple Crown possibility this year, but there is a chance for a Calvin Crown. Calvin Borel has a chance to become the first jockey to win all three Triple Crown races in one year riding more than one horse. Calvin has assured everyone who will listen that he’ll be on the winner this Saturday. Kent Desormeaux has called Calvin, “Naïve.” Yeah, Kent knows all about how extreme confidence in your chances can turn into easing your horse in the Belmont stretch – see Big Brown last year. Anyway, Derby winner Mine That Bird faces nine other horses Saturday, and we’ll see if Calvin’s confidence is misplaced.

As always remember the Belmont is 1 ½ miles long – a full ¼ mile (or about the length of the Churchill Downs homestretch) further than the Derby. Most of these horses will never run this far again, let alone around just two turns like they will at Belmont Park. This race has fooled more than one jockey into moving too soon only to realize with dismay he’s not even close to the finish. The horses are listed below along with the usual conglomeration of factoids, unsubstantiated rumors, snide observations, and half-baked statistics. Just for my amusement I’ve compiled a Belmont winner factor for each horse which is merely the number of times a Belmont winner shows up in the first five generations of the pedigree. It wasn’t particularly helpful for picking the winner last year, but I figure I’ll give it another shot.

Chocolate Candy – He’s been training at Belmont Park since his 5th place finish in the Derby. His workouts included a nice 7/8 mile work on May 25. He gets a new jockey in Garret Gomez who, despite being the top jockey in America the last two years, is still looking for his first win in a Triple Crown race. The pedigree looks pretty good for middle distance races, but there’s not a whole lot that says 1 ½ miles, and his Belmont winner factor is 2.

Dunkirk – He’s also been training steadily at Belmont Park since the Derby. He was 11th in that race after being bumped and steadied at various points. He still is a little light on race experience. The Belmont will be just his 5th lifetime start. He’s actually run the highest speed figure of any horse in the field. His pedigree has a lot of stamina a couple of generations back and his Belmont winner factor is 4. John Velazquez will be riding Dunkirk for the first time. He won the Belmont 2 years ago on Rags to Riches for trainer Todd Pletcher.

Mr. Hot Stuff – He ran 15th in the Derby after being bumped and squeezed at the start. He’s been stabled at Keeneland since then where he has two bullet works on the fake dirt. He gets a new jockey in 2-time Belmont winner, Edgar Prado. His pedigree has some stamina, and he has a Belmont winner factor of 4. His trainer, Eoin Harty, is the anti-Calvin Borel regarding his horse’s chances. He says, "I have no idea how he'll run. I'm going to throw him in there and see what happens."

Summer Bird – He closed from 16th to 6th place in the Derby. He’s been training at Belmont for the last couple of weeks including a nice 7/8 mile workout 2 weeks ago. He’s only run 4 races lifetime, with 1 win and a 3rd place finish. Kent Desormeaux will be riding him for the first time, and rookie trainer Tim Ice will be adding blinkers. There’s quite a lot of stamina in the pedigree, and he’s a son of Belmont winner, Birdstone, just like Mine That Bird. The total Belmont winner factor is 4.

Luv Gov – He ran 8th in the Preakness after going 8 wide into the stretch. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas (winner of 4 Belmonts) took him back to Churchill Downs after the race and he’s had one nice work since then. His speed figures have really improved in his last couple of races, but he still has only one lifetime win. He gets jockey Miguel Mena back who was aboard for that lone victory. The pedigree has a lot of stamina a couple of generations back and his sire, Ten Most Wanted, ran 2nd to Empire Maker in the 2003 Belmont Stakes. The Belmont winner factor is 2.

Charitable Man – He’s one of only two horses in the race that have raced at Belmont Park. He’s 2 for 2 at the track, including a win in the Peter Pan Stakes 4 weeks ago which is the traditional Belmont prep race. He was one of the leading 2 year olds last year until he was injured. He just made it back to the races in April, so he’s lightly-raced, but he seems to still be improving. He has a lot of stamina in the pedigree. He’s a son of 1999 Belmont winner, Lemon Drop Kid, and he has a total Belmont winner factor of 4. He’s one the few horses in the race with any early speed. Jockey Alan Garcia won the Belmont last year wire to wire on Da’Tara.

Mine That Bird – The Derby winner continues to impress observers with his fitness and no-nonsense demeanor during his workouts. He’s been training at Churchill Downs and won’t have any actual workouts at Belmont though. Calvin Borel is back aboard which makes trainer Chip Woolley happy, since he believes Calvin fits the horse well. Closers don’t always do as well as you might think in the Belmont because there’s usually a slower pace up front. Calvin will probably be closer to the front than usual, and might have some company when he starts his run since a good ¾’s of the field are closers too. Timing his run just right will be very important, and things could get mighty interesting on that far turn. Pedigree-wise there’s a lot of stamina (he’s a son of Belmont winner, Birdstone) and his total Belmont winner factor is 5. He’ll be getting a perfect attendance award for the Triple Crown.

Flying Private – He’s the only other horse to get a Triple Crown perfect attendance award this year. He rebounded from a last place finish in the Derby to finish 4th in the Preakness after a bit of a troubled trip. He’s had one maintenance work at Churchill Downs since then, but has no workouts at Belmont Park. He’s the most experienced horse in the field with 12 lifetime starts, but only one win. Jockey Alan Garcia chose to ride Charitable Man instead, so Julien Leparoux picks up the mount. There are some good stamina influences a few generations back in the pedigree and a Belmont winner factor of 5. He’s the only Polish horse in the field.

Miner’s Escape – It wouldn’t be a Belmont Stakes without a Shoeless Nick Zito dark horse. Except Shoeless Nick has been training this guy out in the open at Belmont Park, not up at Saratoga like he usually does with his Belmont contenders. I’m not sure what’s up with that, but I find it interesting. This horse seems to be an improving sort whose 2 lifetime wins have come in his last two starts. He seems to have some early speed, so he might try to set the pace. There is some stamina in the pedigree, and his Belmont winner factor is 5.

Brave Victory – Shoeless Nick Zito’s other dark horse in the race, who has also not been training at Shoeless Nick’s secret Saratoga hideaway. He’s one of only two horses in the race who’s run at Belmont Park before. He ran 3rd behind Charitable Man in the Peter Pan Stakes there in his last race. He was born on Jesse’s birthday. There’s not a lot of stamina in the pedigree and the Belmont winner factor is 2. Something to keep in mind though, Shoeless Nick Zito has started 20 horses in the Belmont and they’ve finished in the money 55% of the time.

So, that’s the field. Perhaps not the most scintillating bunch ever gathered, but I think there’s potential for this to be quite a race. The jockeys are going to be big factors. Will they let the few speed horses set a slow pace which may compromise the chances of the closers? Who’s going to bite the bullet and apply the pressure? Is somebody going to screw up and move too soon?

In the 13ARFTCHC we have a lead pack with $79.20 and a pack of stalkers with $64.40. We’re turning for home and it’s anybody’s race. It might take a long shot winner of Sarava-like proportions to decide this one. So pick your three ponies and send them to me by post time on Saturday which is 6:27 pm. The television coverage is being done by ABC this time. You might also want to tune into some of the great races on the undercard televised by ESPN starting at noon.

My picks will be:
Mine That Bird – I guess I ought to pick him at least once
Dunkirk – 10 weeks ago he was the super-est of horses
Charitable Man – I need some charity in this contest
As usual I reserve the right to be shallow and change any of these picks if I see a pretty pony in the post parade.

Safe trips to all horses and humans.

May the horse be with you.
And also with you.
Lift up your bridle.
We lift them up to the jockey.
Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.
It is right to give him thanks and white carnations.

~The Annoyed Handicapper

Twas the Thursday Night Before the Belmont...

"All of them run a mile and a half. Some of them just take a little longer."

~D.Wayne Lukas