Greetings all,
As promised, here are factoids, rumors,
and unsubstantiated opinions about the Derby runners.
Below I've included the rankings from
my surprisingly successful (8 winners in 18 years) Derby handicapping
process. It's the same system as usual. I evaluate each horse in
seven different categories, with each horse being assigned a purely subjective
rating between 1 and 10. Ten is the worst and 1 is the best. The
seven ratings are then weighted and totaled according to a secret
formula. In this system, the lower the score the better. The seven
categories are as follows:
1. Breeding (B) – Does the
horse have a pedigree that gives them a shot at running 1 ¼ miles faster than a
slug? Do I personally like any of the horses in the pedigree or their
half-siblings, cousins, stablemates,etc.
2. Hype (H) - Bad marks if
I hear a horse's/trainer's name on the local news, or if I see the
horse's/trainer's name in The Roanoke Times prior to Saturday. For the
second year in a row there has been an abnormal amount of coverage in the
paper, so I'm really not sure if I should continue this category, or perhaps I just
need to develop a different hype-meter.
3. Name (N) - Would the
name look good on a Derby glass? Is it a clever or poetic
name? What are the headline possibilities? Is it a name that as one
blogger put it, “can be shouted without embarrassment for two minutes
straight”? Negative ratings for runallthewordstogethernames.
4. Mystery (M) - the dark
horse category. How stupefied will the pundits be if this horse
wins? The more stupefied the better.
5. Karma/best story (K) -
Is there some touching, funny, sad story connected to the horse and/or his
connections? Are the connections old timers who have paid their dues or
enthusiastic newcomers? Have the connections won before or are they still
looking for that first magical win?
6. Annoyance (A) - How
annoying will it be to me personally if this horse and/or connections
win? This entire system is most successful when I weight this category
the highest in the ratings. As usual I am annoyed by huge fields, so I’m
continuing to weight this category heavily. Not a common approach, I
know, but I am "The Annoyed Handicapper."™
7. The usual handicapping
stuff (Hnd) - race records, workouts, post positions, speed figs, stuff
that may or may not really matter come Derby Day anyway.
And now onward to the
horses.
I’ve listed the first ten horses and my ratings for each.
2015
|
B
|
Hype
|
N
|
M
|
K
|
A
|
Hnd
|
total
|
PP
|
Ocho
Ocho Ocho
|
4
|
3
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
2
|
6
|
34
|
1
|
Carpe
Diem
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
6
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
40
|
2
|
Materiality
|
5
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
38
|
3
|
Tencendur
|
6
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
33
|
4
|
Danzig
Moon
|
5
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
7
|
31
|
5
|
Mubtaahij
|
2
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
36
|
6
|
El
Kabeir
|
8
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
33
|
7
|
Dortmund
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
8
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
40
|
8
|
Bolo
|
3
|
2
|
5
|
2
|
3
|
5
|
5
|
35
|
9
|
Firing
Line
|
6
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
36
|
10
|
International
Star
|
6
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
6
|
35
|
11
|
Itsaknockout
|
4
|
3
|
5
|
3
|
5
|
5
|
7
|
42
|
12
|
Keen
Ice
|
2
|
2
|
6
|
2
|
4
|
4
|
7
|
35
|
13
|
Frosted
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
29
|
14
|
War
Story
|
7
|
2
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
7
|
39
|
15
|
Mr. Z
|
4
|
2
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
7
|
37
|
16
|
American
Pharoah
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
8
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
32
|
17
|
Upstart
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
5
|
38
|
18
|
Far
Right
|
6
|
3
|
6
|
6
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
46
|
19
|
Frammento
|
6
|
3
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
7
|
37
|
20
|
Ocho Ocho Ocho - He was catalog no. 888 in a sale and his owners decided to use that number as his name (not sure why they had to translate it into a different language, but it did make it marginally more interesting). He was 3rd last out to Carpe Diem and Danzig Moon in the Blue Grass Stakes. Prior to that he was a well beaten 8th behind Dortmund after a troubled trip. He's a son of 2007 Derby winner Street Sense and has quite a bit of stamina in his pedigree. He's been at Churchill Downs for about a week and has one short, slowish work over the track.
Carpe Diem - There are generally considered to be three favorites in this race - American Pharoah, Dortmund, and oh, what's his name, what's his name, Carpe Diem! Not sure it's all that great a sign to be considered one of the 3 most talented horses in the race, but people can't quite remember your name. Carpe Diem easily won the Blue Grass Stakes last out over Danzig Moon and Ocho Ocho Ocho. Two races back he won the Tampa Bay Derby impressively. He's the first of Todd Pletcher's 3 horses in the race. Todd originally had his usual minimum of 4 entries, but Stanford scratched yesterday. Todd is going to be sooooo bored in the saddling paddock this year. Carpe Diem is descended from the great sire, Danzig, and is the first of several "Polish" horses in the race. There's a relatively decent amount of stamina in his pedigree. He was born on Feb 29, Leap Day, so "seize the day" is a pretty appropriate name. He's been working well at Keeneland and shipped in to Churchill Downs earlier this week.
Materiality - He's the second member of the Todd Squad in the race. He won the Florida Derby last out over Upstart. He's undefeated in his three race career, but did not run at all last year. If he wins the Derby he would be the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win after not racing as a two year old. He's been steadily improving in each race, but does he have enough experience to handle the huge Derby field and what can often be a roughly run race? He is a son of 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner Afleet Alex who was pretty good at handling adversity in his races. Most of the stamina in the pedigree is on his dad's side, but Danzig is his great-grandfather on his mom's side, so he's Polish. He was born on Callan's birthday. He's been at Churchill Downs for over a week and has a nice workout there.
Tencendur - He made a big improvement last out when he was 2nd in the Wood Memorial behind Frosted and ahead of El Kabeir. Prior to that he was 5th behind El Kabeir in the Gotham Stakes. He posted a bullet workout (fastest of the day at that distance) at Churchill Downs last week. He's only actually won one race, but jockey Manuel Franco who was aboard for that victory is back on board for the Derby. He has some really impressive stamina sources in his pedigree, but they're all 3 - 4 generations back. He's named for King Charlemagne's warhorse.
Danzig Moon - Yes, he's Polish. Danzig is his grandfather. His father is Malibu Moon who also sired 2013 Derby winner, Orb. He's also descended from Key to the Mint, sire of Patty and J.O.'s beloved Key Spirit, so I say that makes Danzig Moon family. Danzig Moon was a mildly closing 2nd in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Carpe Diem. Two races back he was a well-beaten 4th behind Carpe Diem in the Tampa Bay Derby, but he came out that race with a fever, so maybe he had an excuse there. He's been working well at Churchill Downs including a bullet work two weeks ago. He's one of relatively few closers in the race, so if things are really lively up front he could come charging at the end.
Mubtaahij - Here's the winner in the United Nations category this year. He's Irish bred, owned by members of the Dubai ruling family, trained in South Africa, and ridden by a Frenchman. He won the UAE Derby in Dubai last out very impressively. He's actually won twice at 1 3/16 miles which is longer than anyone else in the race has even run. His pedigree seems to indicate the additional 1/16 mile for the Derby shouldn't be much of a problem. Some folks question the quality of the competition he's beat, but other racing pundits are on his bandwagon. He's been in the US for a few weeks training in Chicago, but he shipped to Churchill earlier this week and had a nice workout over the track.
444444444444444447hg\77777777777777777777777777 (Those are my cat Pearl's comments) El Kabeir is quite experienced for a contemporary Derby horse having raced 9 times total with 4 wins and 8 in the money finishes. He actually won a race last fall at Churchill Downs with Calvin Borel riding. El Kabeir has been working well at his home base Belmont Park and shipped in to Churchill Downs this week. He has some good stamina sources in his pedigree, but they're about 3 generations back. News Alert - Friday morning El Kabeir seems to have an ouchy foot. The connections are evaluating, but will make a final decision in or out of the race on Saturday morning.
Dortmund - "When he comes out of the stall he just keeps coming out" - Bouncy Bob Baffert describing Dortmund. Dortmund is huge (17 hands), undefeated (6 for 6), and one of Bouncy Bob's two horse Derby favorite combo along with American Pharoah. The horses are owned by two different people (a delicate situation for a trainer), so they are not coupled in the wagering. Dortmund won the Santa Anita Derby last out very easily over Bolo. He came back after almost being passed in the stretch to win the San Felipe two races back, with Bolo finishing third. In other races he's also beaten Firing Line and Mr. Z. He has a huge, effortless stride that's a pleasure to watch. He's a son of 2008 Derby winner Big Brown and is Polish on both sides of his family. The stamina sources are a couple generations back, but they're good ones. He's been working very well at his home base at Santa Anita including a bullet work a couple of weeks ago. He arrived at Churchill Downs earlier this week. He can get a little anxious in the paddock, so instead of saddling him in the somewhat claustrophobic saddling stalls at Churchill Downs they will take him to the tunnel to the track and saddle him there.
Bolo - Finished 3rd behind Dortmund in his last two races. His only 2 wins were actually on the turf, so there's been much indecision among his connections all spring as to whether he was actually a Derby horse at all. Apparently the trainer and jockey thought "no", but the owners thought "yes" and here we are. There have been Derby winners who appeared to be grass horses earlier in their careers, and he has been working quite well at Santa Anita. Once he arrived at Churchill Downs earlier this week he's impressed many observers with his appearance on the track. His pedigree has some decent stamina in it and he's Polish too. Trainer Carla Gaines would be the first woman to officially train a Derby winner.
Firing Line - After losing to Dortmund by a head for two straight races his connections found a new setting for him and he promptly won the Sunland Park Derby by 14 lengths. The level of competition was probably not that great, but he beat them soundly. His speed figures have been steadily improving with each race. Even though he tends to run close to the front he also has quite a closing kick. He'll be coming into the Derby off a 6 week layoff, but he has impressed observers at Churchill Downs in his morning gallops. The stamina in his pedigree is pretty far back, but he is Polish. Jockey Gary Stevens had a knee replacement last summer and is apparently riding pain-free these days. I wonder what the weight difference is between his old and new knees. Ounces can matter to a jockey...
International Star - He won all 3 traditional Derby preps at the Fair Grounds racetrack this spring beating War Story and Keen Ice. His speed figures are very consistent, but not quite as high as some of the other top horses. He is one of the few dedicated closers in the field and would benefit from an early fast pace. He's a versatile horse who has won races on fake dirt, turf, and real dirt. He's a son of 2000 Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus and has stamina sources a few generations back. He's also Polish. Owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey are native Kentuckians, and Ken has stated that he would love to have Ky Derby winner on his tombstone.
Itsaknockout - So did the owners somehow know 2 years ago that the "Fight of the Century" would be going on the same day as the 2015 Ky Derby? Even if they didn't I'm sure there are bookies offering special Derby/boxing wagers for Saturday. Itsaknockout finished 4th last out 5 weeks ago in the Florida Derby behind Materiality and Upstart. Two races back he won the Fountain of Youth when Upstart was disqualified for bumping in the stretch. His speed figures have been declining with each race. His workouts have been pretty good though. He has a ton of stamina on his dad's side - his father is 1999 Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid. His mom's side is a little more sprinting oriented. He's the 3rd member of the Todd Squad, and he was born on Mom's birthday.
Keen Ice - He was 4th in the Louisiana Derby and 3rd in the Risen Star in his last two races, finishing behind International Star and War Story. Prior to that he ran in Florida where he finished 5th in the Holy Bull behind Upstart and Frosted. At least he'll see a lot of familiar faces in the starting gate. He's been working quite well at Churchill Downs for the last month. Owners Donegal Racing and trainer Dale Romans have teamed up previously to produce Derby runners up Paddy O'Prado and Dullahan. His pedigree has lots of stamina and he's a a son of 2007 Preakness winner, Curlin. He was born on Andrew's birthday.
Frosted - He had promising 2nd place finishes early in the year in New York and Florida Derby preps, then looked like a winner in the Fountain of Youth before abruptly fading to 4th. Apparently there was a breathing issue in the race, so minor throat surgery was done. He came back to win the Wood Memorial last out beating Tencendur and El Kabeir. The way he did it was impressive. Jockey Joel Rosario barely seemed to be urging him on while Frosted just steadily ran down Tencendur. His pedigree is like many others in the race with the stamina sources a few generations back. He's been working well at his home base in Florida and then shipped up to Churchill earlier this week.
War Story - He' s been running against International Star down in Louisiana all spring finishing either 2nd or 3rd in those races. He did win a race at Churchill Downs last fall. He appears to have a mid-pack stalking style which can be quite useful in the large Derby field. His pedigree is pretty light on stamina, but I'd love to see him try a mile race on the turf. His connections are all seeking their first Derby win.
Mr. Z - He's the other "other horse" in the 3 horse Zayat Stables entry. He has the most racing experience of any horse in the field. He was 3rd in the Arkansas Derby last out behind American Pharoah and Far Right. Before that he spit the bit in the Louisiana Derby and finished 9th. He's also finished behind Dortmund, Ocho Ocho Ocho, Carpe Diem, and Upstart in various other prep races. He's another horse who will be seeing a lot of familiar faces in the starting gate. He's had a couple of sharp workouts at Churchill Downs. His pedigree is full of stamina sources a couple generations back. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is looking to win his 5th Derby.
American Pharoah - The big horse in the Zayat Stable entry. He was the champion two year old colt last year, and would have been a favorite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile except for a foot injury that caused him to scratch. After a long break he returned to the races in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park where he won by 6 lengths despite running with a loose shoe. He followed that by winning the Arkansas Derby by 5 lengths over Far Right and Mr. Z. He runs like a bounding deer and often has his ears pricked up. Most other horses, though graceful, don't necessarily bound, and they usually have their ears pinned as they run. If he doesn't make it as a race horse he could possibly be a runway model, although he does have an abnormally short tail from where a stablemate chewed it when he was a foal. He usually is on or near the lead, but still tends to do his fastest running at the end of the race which is somewhat unusual for a frontrunner. He's had a couple of bullet works at Santa Anita prior to shipping to Churchill. His pedigree is pretty light on stamina on his Mom's side. And yes, they know pharaoh is misspelled. He was named as part of an online contest and that's the spelling that was on the winning entry.
Upstart - He was 2nd to Materiality in the Florida Derby last out and was disqualified from 1st to 2nd in the Fountain of Youth the race before that. He beat Frosted in the Holy Bull 3 races ago. He's been working sharply down in Florida and arrived at Churchill Downs earlier this week. He has quite a bit of stamina in his pedigree with both of grandfathers being Belmont winners - Touch Gold and A.P. Indy. This would be a first Derby win for all his connections.
Far Right - Prior to the scratch of Stanford and the addition of Frammento to the field, Far Right was starting from the far right of the starting gate (stage right). He was a distant 2nd to American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby last out, but prior to that he beat Mr. Z in 2 other prep races. He actually ran 3 times at Churchill Downs last year finishing in the money each time. He had a nice workout over the track last week. His pedigree is pretty light on stamina in the closest generations, but there are some long-running horses if you keep going back.
Frammento - Shoeless Nick Zito is back for the first time in several years and is looking for his 3rd Derby win. Frammento was 4th last out in the Blue Grass behind Carpe Diem, Danzig Moon, and Ocho Ocho Ocho. He was 3rd in the Fountain of Youth behind Upstart and Itsaknockout prior to that. He's another of the closers in the race. He's been working quite well at Keeneland. Like most of his competition the stamina in his pedigree is a few generations back. Jockey Corey Nakatani is 0 for 17 in Derby.
Update on the news alert from this morning - El Kabeir has officially scratched from the race due to a foot injury. There will be a nineteen horse field and the No. 1 post position will be left open. Ocho Ocho Ocho's connections are now relieved to be starting from the 2nd stall and everyone else will shift to fill in all the gaps.
It appears my picks will be:
Frosted
Danzig Moon
American Pharoah
Let me know your picks by post time on Saturday 6:34PM.
Safe trips to all horses and humans.
May the horse be with you.
The Annoyed Handicapper™
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