Friday, March 30, 2007

Like Sands Through the Hourglass

Another week has passed and the horse racing is intensifying. Many excellent races will be held this weekend in vastly different parts of the world. In our little contest, my Benden Weyr stable still clings to a thin lead in our contest.

1 111 Benden Weyr Thomas
Roanoke
2 107 Apache_Rose_Peacock Andrew
Fairfax
3 100 Clifton Pond Stable Rebecca
Lexington
4 99 Antilles Stable Elizabeth
Roanoke
5 93 SCHANUCI John R
Salem
6 66 Hard Spun John W Middleburg
7 25 Lucky Farm Amy

Durham

3/31 Florida Derby I Gulfstream $1,000,000 1 1/8m USA
3/31 Aventura
Gulfstream $175,000 7f HRTV
3/31 UAE Derby II Nad al Sheba $2,000,000 1 1/8m ABC

3
18:15
UAE DERBY SPONSORED BY S & M AL NABOODAH GROUP
1800M(a9F) Dirt


For NH & SH bred 3YO Weight: NH bred 3YO 55kg. SH bred 3YO 59kg

Rail Position: True Safety Limit: 16
Total Purse: 2,000,000 USD
Group 2
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
1,200,000
400,000
200,000
100,000
60,000
40,000
HR
HORSE
WGT
OWNER
TRAINER

Asiatic Boy (ARG) M de Kock

Eu Tambem (BRZ) S bin Suroor

Joe Louis (ARG) I Jory

Greetings (BRZ) P Nickel Filho

Bartola (ARG) J C Maldotti

Day Pass (USA) S bin Suroor

Traffic Guard (USA) J Moore

Jack Junior (USA) B Meehan

Rallying Cry (USA) S bin Suroor

Monzante (USA) R Charlton

Adil (KSA) J Gardel

Seal Point (USA) C Wroe

Victory Tetsuni (USA) H Mori

Folk (USA) S bin Suroor

In the Florida Derby Saturday, there will be a clash. The battle lines will be drawn and several horses should be positioning for a propelling win. Adore the Gold, Scat Daddy, Stormello, and Notional have the best shot to win. Of those, I think we're looking at either Stormello or Adore the Gold. The latter put in a bullet 5f workout (1/25) at Gulfstream 57. 3. Stormello also had an impressive bullet workout Hollywood Park (1/67) with a 5f time of 58.1. My sentimental favorite is Chelokee. I think this horse is ready to step up.

The Aventura looks to be a fascinating race. Although none of the horses are considered to be strong Derby contenders, the field does seem evenly matched with just the right air of mystery.
People looking to score points in our contest most likely won't have any of the horses, but there are jockeys and trainers that may earn a few points for wise stables. Pletcher is entering Our Sacred Honor. This horse has decent speed numbers and may finish in the money, but I think it's unlikely. Pletcher does have a 25% win percentage for his career and this year. Trombetta is also has a horse entered in this race, Street Magician. Trombetta also has a 25% win average this year. Street Magician will be running his third career race. In his last race he posted a 99 speed figure. That's very above average. Can he do it again? Larry Pilotti (19%) took over training Silver Source in February. In that first race under him, Silver Source received a 90 speed rating; that's 30 points higher than any previous race.

Three jockeys to keep an eye on are Prado, Victor Espinoza, and Cornelio Velasquez. Prado rides the already mentioned Our Sacred Honor and Espinoza rides the mysterious Green Vegas. Espinoza commands a 20% career win mark and can be The Force. Cornelio is the leading jockey at Gulfstream so far this year.

If I was losing money on this race, I'd be picking Yesbyjimminy, Street Magician boxed and either Silver Source or Green Vegas to round out a trifecta box. If I wanted to win money in this race, I'd bet on Blue Bullet to win. Bet on Finallymadeit to finish last.

In Dubai, frankly I'm more excited about the non-3 year old races. I want to see Invasor meet Discreet Cat in the $6,000,000 World Cup. Also, English Channel will be racing Lava Man in the $5,000,000 Duty Free. Word has it that in the UAE Derby(3 year olds), Asiatic Boy is the horse to beat. This South American 3 year old (4 year old in North America) has a 6(4-2-0) career record. Second favorite is Eu Tamben 8(7-1-0). This horse will be starting from the far outside. I don't know if that will make a difference. The USA filly, Folk, is the third favorite 5(3-1-0). She most likely will run in the Kentucky Oaks in May instead of the Derby, but you never know. I'm greedily looking for the horse Day Pass 3(2-0-0) to sneak in there for first. Garrett Gomez is one of my two stable jockeys and he has this mount for the race. It's not out of the question.


Enjoy

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