Huelskamp

Roberta Muldoon vs Bryce Williams

Fun With Skipper in 2013

The People and the Blast

Orb runs past Violence

So it goes in the Fountain of Youth.

Sad news today.  There will be no Road to the Roses Fantasy Stable contest.  Maybe we should do our own.

Well, it's almost Derby Day 2012.  I haven't posted here in a long, long time,  but I thought I'd drop in long enough to share the ARFTCHC analysis by The Annoyed Handicapper.

Visit tmy Dropbox Links below


Overview 
 http://dl.dropbox.com/u/25441977/Sixteenth%20Annual%20Ryder%20Family%20Triple%20Crown%20Handicapping%20Contest.docx

Part 1
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/25441977/16ARFTCHC%20Part%201.docx

Part 2
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/25441977/16ARFTCHC%20Part%202.docx

UVA Parking

The Derby is a crap shoot. 20 horses charge out of 20 gates and
plunge to the first turn. It's the only race with that type of
potential carnage. Those who make it to the turn in good position,
stand a legitimate chance. So you really have to be a horse who breaks
well, has an initial burst of speed, and who has the stamina needed to
cover 1 and 1/4 miles, which is generally at the top-end of what m9ost
of these horses will normally race.


One horse I like is Master of Hounds. Why...well, he did well in
Dubaii and was dominant in Europe. I like Dialed In, but I don't see
him as being a horse to take charge of the race.


I'm liking Brillant Speed more and more...granted I like this horse
because he is related to Key Spirit. Spirit was rescued by my good
friend (and lifetime Hokie), J.O. Wallace. J.O. and his wife, Patty,
cared for Spirit and became his friend. Spirit passed away this
winter after living a long, unexpected life at a large farm in
Virginia.

The horse I like best right this moment is Soldat. He ran a
disappointing last race, but before that, he was golden.
Handicappers will jump on that last bad race and pump him up...they
are a superstitious lot...A quality horse that runs bad is due to run
good.


The Kentucky Derby is almost impossible to handicap. Whichever horse
wins, the price will be fantastic. Here are the horses and my simple
thoughts on their chances.


1 Archarcharch (KY) 10/1 Rail and no Bo-Rail. Good horse, probably
the second best in the field.
2 Brilliant Speed (FL) : 30/1 Sneaky good. May pull the upset.
3 Twice the Appeal (KY) 20/1: No Chance
4 Stay Thirsty (KY) 20/1: Possible winner. Good Post. Decent
tactical speed. Strong experience. Good horse.
5 Decisive Moment (FL) 30/1: No Chance
6 Comma to the Top (FL) 30/1: Strong contender. Lots of experience.
7 Pants On Fire (KY) 20/1: Sexy pick. No Chance.
8 Dialed In (KY) 4/1: Best conservative choice. Strong post.
Good performances. Strong horse.
9 Derby Kitten (KY) 30/1: No Chance
10 Twinspired (KY) 30/1: No Chance
11 Master of Hounds (KY) 30/1: My sneaky winner pick.
12 Santiva (KY) 30/1: My second sneaky winner pick
13 Mucho Macho Man (FL) 12/1: Very strong horse. Should finish
second or first.
14 Shackleford (KY) 12/1: Popular pick. No Chance.
15 Midnight Interlude (KY) 10/1: Interesting.
16 Animal Kingdom (KY) 30/1: Lots of chatter. All talk.
17 Soldat (KY) 12/1: Will win the Derby. Great horse. Had a bad
race last time.
19 Nehro (KY) 6/1: Has done NOTHING to deserve the hype.
20 Watch Me Go (FL)50/1: Who? No Chance.