Devil May Care – She's the second of trainer Todd (0 for 24 in the Derby) Pletcher's 4 horses in the race and only entered after Todd's big horse, pre-race favorite Eskendereya was injured over the weekend. With Esky out Devil May Care could get her jockey John Velazquez for the Derby and the connections decided to take a shot at the boys rather than run with the girls in KY Oaks. She's actually tied with Sidney's Candy for the highest last race speed figure in the field. She still runs a little greenly – lots of fractiousness and shying in her running lines, but Todd's adding blinkers to help her focus more. While she doesn't have a great mud pedigree rating she's won on a sloppy track and has been working very well in Churchill's mud. Stamina-wise she ought to be ok at 1 ¼ miles.
Conveyance – The second of Bouncy Bob Baffert's two horses in the race has been racing on real dirt the last 2 outings. He finished 2nd in his last race, but won the Southwest Stakes two races back beating Dublin. Conveyance looks to be one of the speed horses in the race, but the pedigree is really iffy for 1 ¼ miles. He appears to like Churchill though, posting 2 bullet works, one of which was in the mud.
Jackson Bend – An exceptionally consistent horse who has finished 1st or 2nd in every race he's run. Unfortunately, all the 1st's were last year and most of the 2nd's were this year. Of course in his last two races he finished 2nd to Eskendereya who's no chump horse. He's been working very well at Churchill, but recorded his last official workout before all the rain came. Jackson Bend is a little horse and some handicappers like little horses in the mud thinking they don't get bogged down as much as a bigger horse. His pedigree is rather non-descript with not much stamina or mud performance, but his fadder comes from a mud-loving family. He's also related to Patty's horse Key Spirit.
Mission Impazible – The 3rd of trainer Todd (0 for 24 in the Derby) Pletcher's 4 horses in the race. He's another of the steadily improving horses. He won the Louisiana Derby 5 weeks ago in his last start. Two races back he was 4th in the Southwest Stakes behind Conveyance and Dublin. He finished 3rd on an off track at Churchill Downs last fall and has worked well in the mud there this week. Most of the stamina is a couple of generations back in his pedigree and he doesn't have a particularly high mud rating. His owners are in the running for tackiest silks being a combination of lime green and chocolate brown. Still, I bet they're easy to follow during a race.
Discreetly Mine – The 4th of trainer Todd (0 for 24 in the Derby) Pletcher's 4 horses in the race. You know the thought occurs to me that even if Todd does win this year he still will only be 1 for 28 in the Derby – still only a 4% win rate, but I guess it really doesn't matter how many you run or win as long as you win at least one. Which sorta seems to be Discreetly Mine's philosophy having won only 2 times in 8 races. He did win the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds earlier this year, but then finished 4th behind Mission Impazible in the Louisiana Derby. He's raced and won on an off track and has worked well in Churchill's mud. He looks to be one of the speed horses in the race. His pedigree has quite a bit of stamina, but some of it's a few generations back.
Awesome Act – His name practically writes its own headlines. He's a US bred horse who began his career in England and is still trained by his English trainer. He's run twice in the US this year winning the Gotham Stakes and running 3rd to Eskendereya in Wood Memorial. He had an excuse in that last race though having stumbled at the break and then lost a shoe early in the race. He worked very well in the Churchill mud on Tuesday and his pedigree is pretty mud-loving. His pedigree is also pretty good for 1 ¼ miles.
Dublin – Four time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas trains this son of 2005 3rd place finisher (and Preakness and Belmont winner) Afleet Alex. Unlike Afleet Alex who had a tremendous burst of speed, Dublin is a grinder who has managed to grind out a second and 2 thirds this year behind horses like Lookin at Lucky, Noble's Promise, Line of David and Super Saver. Dublin has not worked particularly well in the mud and his pedigree doesn't really scream mudder, but it does have plenty of stamina. It's also interesting to note that Dublin's two worst races by far have come at Churchill – one on an off track and the other on a fast track.
Backtalk – Backed into the Derby at the last minute after other horses dropped out. Finished 3rd behind American Lion in the Illinois Derby in his last race. He 's got a good race – bad race pattern going and we are due for the good race this time. He won a small stakes race on a sloppy Delta Downs track early this year and he was 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs last year. His mud pedigree rating is pretty low, but his sire Smarty Jones won the Derby in the slop in 2004. There's more stamina in the pedigree, but most of it is a few generations back.
Homeboykris – Rick Dutrow of Big Brown fame trains this guy who hasn't raced since finishing 2nd in a GulfstreamPark allowance race 9 weeks ago. The race before that he finished 5th behind Jackson Bend (among others) in the Holy Bull Stakes. He only had enough earnings to make the Derby because he won the Champagne Stakes last year beating Discreetly Mine. He's co-owned by LA Dodgers manager Joe Torre. He put in a good work on an off track at Churchill on Wednesday. His pedigree is ok for mud and stamina and he is a Polish horse.
Sidney's Candy – Diet maven Jenny Craig is back with another Candy horse after Chocolate Candy finished 5th last year. Sidney's Candy has won his last 3 races all on the fake dirt in California. In his last race he went wire to wire beating Lookin at Lucky. He's a quality speed horse who has proven very difficult to pass in the stretch. He has the unenviable post position 20, but speed horse Big Brown won from post 20 in 2008. Twenty year old jockey Joe Talamo was on the Derby favorite I Want Revenge last year who scratched the morning of the Derby with an injury. Sidney's Candy has never raced on anything other than fake dirt, but has been working very well at Churchill Downs including a very swift workout on a sloppy surface last Saturday. He has a good mud pedigree rating. His pedigree is very international with French, Argentinian, Canadian, British, and American blood mixed in and quite a bit of stamina.
Ok, enough of that. It appears my picks will be
Awesome Act
Lookin at Lucky
Super Saver
But this really might be a year where a pretty pony in the post parade could come home first.
As promised, here is the first installment of factoids, rumors, and unsubstantiated opinions about the Derby runners. With a twenty horse field to cover I’ll be splitting this up into two emails.
Below I've included the rankings from my occasionally successful (4 winners in 13 years) Derby handicapping process. You know the drill by now. I evaluate each horse in seven different categories, with each horse being assigned a purely subjective rating between 1 and 10. Ten is the worst and 1 is the best. The seven ratings are then weighted and totaled according to a secret formula. In this system the lower the score the better. I have modified my system this year by dropping the photo category, and the remaining seven categories are as follows:
1. Breeding (B) – Does the horse have a pedigree that gives them a shot at running 1 ¼ miles faster than a slug? Do I personally like any of the horses in the pedigree or their half-siblings, cousins, stablemates,etc., and does the pedigree *not* contain Mr. Prospector or Storm Cat.
2. Hype (H) - Bad marks if I hear a horse's/trainer's name on the local news, or if I see the horse's/trainer's name in The Roanoke Times prior to Sat. (A horse/trainer would have to be a serious hype monster to make it past the Salem Red Sox/Nascar car spoiler coverage around here.)
3. Name (N) - Would the name look good on a Derby glass? Is it a clever or poetic name? What are the headline possibilities? Negative ratings for runallthewordstogethernames. A new criterion instituted last year and continued this year is, as one blogger put it, “a horse whose name can be shouted without embarrassment for two minutes straight”.
4. Mystery (M) - the dark horse category. How stupefied will the pundits be if this horse wins? The more stupefied the better.
5. Karma/best story (K) - Is there some touching, funny, sad story connected to the horse and/or his connections? Are the connections old timers ala Paul Mellon/Mack Miller with Sea Hero or are they refreshing newcomers like the Funny Cide group or the Smarty Party? Have the connections won before or are they still looking for that first magical win?
6. Annoyance (A) - How annoying will it be to me personally if this horse and/or connections win? This entire system is most successful when I weight this category the highest in the ratings. As usual I am annoyed by twenty horse fields, so I’m continuing to weight this category heavily. Not a common approach, I know, but I am "The Annoyed Handicapper."TM
7. The usual handicapping stuff (Hnd) - you know race records, workouts, post positions, speed figs, stuff that may or may not really matter come Derby Day anyway. I will also be paying attention to wet track performance this year. There is a flash flood watch in effect for Louisville on Saturday and Sunday with 1 – 2” of rain expected Saturday morning.
And now onward to the horses.
I’ve listed the first ten horses and my ratings for each.
2010
B
Hype
N
M
K
A
Hnd
total
Lookin at Lucky
3
5
3
6
4
1
3
28
Ice Box
2
3
4
5
4
3
3
33
Noble's Promise
7
4
4
4
4
4
5
44
Super Saver
2
3
6
5
4
1
4
28
Line of David
4
3
4
4
3
3
4
34
Stately Victor
3
4
3
3
4
3
5
34
American Lion
5
3
4
5
3
4
5
41
Dean's Kitten
3
3
5
6
4
4
6
43
Make Music For Me
7
2
4
2
4
4
8
43
Paddy O'Prado
4
4
6
4
4
4
5
43
Lookin at Lucky – If it weren't for bad luck he'd have no luck at all. In his last few races his running lines include the words “steadied”, “jumped heels”, and “bumped”. Now he's drawn the rail at the Derby where it's almost certain he will have to steady, jump heels, and get bumped. Still, with all his trouble in prep races he has managed to win 2 of his last 3, and he's always in the money. He was the champion 2 year old colt last year. He seems to be training well over the muddy track at Churchill Downs, posting a bullet work on Monday. His pedigree has a reasonable chance of helping him get 1 ¼ miles faster than the other horses, and he's a great-grandson of Danzig, so that makes him a Polish horse (As Thom says, “You can tell.”)
Ice Box – Shoeless Nick Zito brings this closer who won the FloridaDerby 6 weeks ago. The 6 weeks off might negate his good race-bad race pattern (we're due for the bad race this time), and he's been working lights out including a bullet 4 furlongs at sloppy Churchill last Friday. He's a bit of an all or nothing horse in that he either wins or is out of the money. He's never raced on a sloppy track, but the workouts and pedigree say he ought to do ok and get the 1 ¼ miles.
Noble's Promise – He finished 5th in the Arkansas Derby in his last start behind Line of David, Super Saver, and Dublin, but he had a rough trip in the race, sustained cuts to his legs and was dealing with a lung infection, so maybe throw that race out. Prior to that race he had finished 2nd in his last 2 races beaten by Lookin at Lucky each time. After a sharp workout at muddy Churchill Monday morning, his lungs were checked and pronounced clear of infection and his connections decided to head for the Derby. It all sounds a bit last minute to me. He's never won at any distance over 1 1/16 miles and his pedigree is pretty suspect for anything approaching 1 ¼ miles. He does have by far the highest mud pedigree rating in the field and his workouts support that.
Super Saver - Whenever I hear his name I think Winn-Dixie. Wasn't that the store that always offered super saver discounts? They were the store that used to give out the tickets for the televised horse race sweepstakes show. Those are some of the earliest races I remember watching. Anyway Super Saver the horse finished 2nd behind Line of David in the Arkansas Derby last out. His last win actually came at Churchill Downs last fall. He's one of the speedier horses in the race, but jockey Calvin Borel might head directly for his beloved rail position after the start and tuck in behind the leaders. Super Saver has worked well over the sloppy Churchill track and has a mud-loving pedigree as well as a stamina-laden one. This is the first of trainer Todd (0 for 24 in the Derby) Pletcher's 4 horses in the race.
Line of David – He won the Arkansas Derby wire to wire in his last start holding off Super Saver and Dublin in the stretch. That was also his first race on real dirt and his first stakes race. He seems to be a steadily improving horse, but he hasn't been working particularly well at muddy Churchill even though his pedigree does say he should like the mud. He's a son of Lion Heart who finished second to Smarty Jones in the muddy 2004 Derby and there's some other stamina in the pedigree.
Stately Victor – He was last seen closing in the stretch to win the Blue Grass Stakes going away on Keeneland's fake dirt. Prior to that he'd been putting in some uninspired efforts in a couple of turf races in Florida, but he's also raced a couple of times on the dirt and showed improvement. He raced once at Churchill last fall finishing 7th. Lately he's been working well on a sloppy training track near Churchill Downs and has really impressed observers with his appearance. His pedigree has quite a bit of stamina and some mud affinity as well.
American Lion – He won the Illinois Derby wire to wire in his last start holding off Backtalk among others. That was his first start on real dirt. Before that race he'd been running 3rd and 4th on the fake dirt in California behind horses like Sidney's Candy. He has something of a good race – bad race pattern and it's time for the bad race, but trainer Eoin Harty says he found a four leaf clover this week and he's seen some other good omens. American Lion had a leisurely workout in the Churchill mud on Monday but Harty said they weren't trying for anything fast. American Lion has an excellent mud pedigree rating with a reasonable amount of stamina influences.
Dean's Kitten – He won the Lane's End on the fake dirt at TurfwayPark last out. Prior to that he finished 2nd behind Paddy O'Prado on the turf at GulfstreamPark. He seems to be another one of the steadily improving horses in the race. His lone dirt race was in the mud at Belmont last fall where he finished a very distant 5th behind Eskendereya. He been's working at the same sloppy training track as Stately Victor, but only has one so-so workout in the slop. He's a son VA Derby winner Kitten's Joy and the 1 ¼ mile distance shouldn't be an issue, but the mud might be.
Make Music for Me – He was literally the last horse in and only made the field when Endorsement was injured the morning of the post position draw. He finished 6th in the Blue Grass last out after a troubled trip, but 2 races back he won a small stakes on the turf in California. Last fall he ran 3rd behind Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise in the Cash Call Futurity. His pedigree is pretty iffy for the distance, but his mudder is from a mud-loving family. He will be the first Derby starter for all his connections.
Paddy O'Prado – The name rolls right off the tongue, but I always think of patio furniture when I hear it, and really, shouldn't Edgar Prado be riding this horse? Kent Desormeaux has the mount as he did when they were overtaken in the stretch of the Blue Grass and finished 2nd to Stately Victor. Two races back he beat Dean's Kitten on the turf at GulfstreamPark. He's raced almost exclusively on turf and fake dirt, but he did make his first start on a sloppy Churchill Downs track last summer and finished an uninspired 7th. He did post a bullet workout at sloppy Churchill last week though. His pedigree has quite a bit of stamina, but it's more slanted towards turf rather than dirt or mud.
My sister and I went on our yearly pilgrimage to Colonial Downs yesterday and proceeded to receive entertainment for no cost-a good day at the track.
Weather was excellent. Under shade. Breezy. Low humidity. Nice.
Crowds were light. No big races other than "The DaHoss Stakes."
Highlights: 1. The Italian Sausage with grilled onions/peppers....divine.
2. Rosemary Homeister, Jr. : She's an amazing jockey. Yesterday, she won four races and placed a couple of other times. She now leads the Colonial meet in wins. Homeister places a Jr. after name since she's named after her mother and her mother is a trainer. So, frequently in her early career back in the 90's, she would ride her mother's horses. The Jr. identifies them on the program. In the featured race, her mount scratched prior to the race, so she (being the top jock of the meet) was able to pick up an 18/1 horse named Izzy Speaking. Izzy is a fine horse but was jumping in distance from 5f to a mile. Izzy was buried at the start. The field was strong with several graded stakes winners racing. Homeister kept him mid-pack going through the turn home, but he was sealed off. Then she kicked the gas and directed the horse through two sliver openings and blasted him to the front for a driving win. Gutsy ride. Risk/reward.
3. Drunk "Hoooooooooooo-Hooooooooooooooo!" guy: This guy, who had a few too many beers won a sum of money on a race or two. He celebrated by dancing around the facility"Hooooo-Hoooooing" (It was also Hooter's day...lots of girls in skin-tight orange panties who looked four years YOUNGER than my 18 year old daughter. :( ) Anyway, "Hooo-hooo-ing Guy screamed out that this stuff is so easy and he was "...just a rookie!" as he stepped all over the full beer cup he'd set down on the ground. Talk about beginner's luck. He'll never remember the fun he had.
4. Sunset over the Blue Ridge Mtns: From 8:30-9:00 last night, the sun put on a powerful color display as we turned away from it. I thought at the time that fireworks mimic the glorious colors of such sunsets.
5. Dime Supers: A great way to spend that loose change. I used Quick Pick (computer picks numbers). On one race, I had these numbers 8-3-1-2. The winning order was 8-5-1-2...just one odd number away from being set for life.
What a great day. We'll most likely return for the busy Virginia Derby day in middle July.
It’s Belmont time again. There’s no Triple Crown possibility this year, but there is a chance for a Calvin Crown. Calvin Borel has a chance to become the first jockey to win all three Triple Crown races in one year riding more than one horse. Calvin has assured everyone who will listen that he’ll be on the winner this Saturday. Kent Desormeaux has called Calvin, “Naïve.” Yeah, Kent knows all about how extreme confidence in your chances can turn into easing your horse in the Belmont stretch – see Big Brown last year. Anyway, Derby winner Mine That Bird faces nine other horses Saturday, and we’ll see if Calvin’s confidence is misplaced.
As always remember the Belmont is 1 ½ miles long – a full ¼ mile (or about the length of the Churchill Downs homestretch) further than the Derby. Most of these horses will never run this far again, let alone around just two turns like they will at Belmont Park. This race has fooled more than one jockey into moving too soon only to realize with dismay he’s not even close to the finish. The horses are listed below along with the usual conglomeration of factoids, unsubstantiated rumors, snide observations, and half-baked statistics. Just for my amusement I’ve compiled a Belmont winner factor for each horse which is merely the number of times a Belmont winner shows up in the first five generations of the pedigree. It wasn’t particularly helpful for picking the winner last year, but I figure I’ll give it another shot.
Chocolate Candy – He’s been training at Belmont Park since his 5th place finish in the Derby. His workouts included a nice 7/8 mile work on May 25. He gets a new jockey in Garret Gomez who, despite being the top jockey in America the last two years, is still looking for his first win in a Triple Crown race. The pedigree looks pretty good for middle distance races, but there’s not a whole lot that says 1 ½ miles, and his Belmont winner factor is 2.
Dunkirk– He’s also been training steadily at Belmont Park since the Derby. He was 11th in that race after being bumped and steadied at various points. He still is a little light on race experience. The Belmont will be just his 5th lifetime start. He’s actually run the highest speed figure of any horse in the field. His pedigree has a lot of stamina a couple of generations back and his Belmont winner factor is 4. John Velazquez will be riding Dunkirk for the first time. He won the Belmont 2 years ago on Rags to Riches for trainer Todd Pletcher.
Mr. Hot Stuff – He ran 15th in the Derby after being bumped and squeezed at the start. He’s been stabled at Keeneland since then where he has two bullet works on the fake dirt. He gets a new jockey in 2-time Belmont winner, Edgar Prado. His pedigree has some stamina, and he has a Belmont winner factor of 4. His trainer, Eoin Harty, is the anti-Calvin Borel regarding his horse’s chances. He says, "I have no idea how he'll run. I'm going to throw him in there and see what happens."
Summer Bird – He closed from 16th to 6th place in the Derby. He’s been training at Belmont for the last couple of weeks including a nice 7/8 mile workout 2 weeks ago. He’s only run 4 races lifetime, with 1 win and a 3rd place finish. Kent Desormeaux will be riding him for the first time, and rookie trainer Tim Ice will be adding blinkers. There’s quite a lot of stamina in the pedigree, and he’s a son of Belmont winner, Birdstone, just like Mine That Bird. The total Belmont winner factor is 4.
Luv Gov– He ran 8th in the Preakness after going 8 wide into the stretch. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas (winner of 4 Belmonts) took him back to Churchill Downs after the race and he’s had one nice work since then. His speed figures have really improved in his last couple of races, but he still has only one lifetime win. He gets jockey Miguel Mena back who was aboard for that lone victory. The pedigree has a lot of stamina a couple of generations back and his sire, Ten Most Wanted, ran 2nd to Empire Maker in the 2003 Belmont Stakes. The Belmont winner factor is 2.
Charitable Man – He’s one of only two horses in the race that have raced at Belmont Park. He’s 2 for 2 at the track, including a win in the Peter Pan Stakes 4 weeks ago which is the traditional Belmont prep race. He was one of the leading 2 year olds last year until he was injured. He just made it back to the races in April, so he’s lightly-raced, but he seems to still be improving. He has a lot of stamina in the pedigree. He’s a son of 1999 Belmont winner, Lemon Drop Kid, and he has a total Belmont winner factor of 4. He’s one the few horses in the race with any early speed. Jockey Alan Garcia won the Belmont last year wire to wire on Da’Tara.
Mine That Bird – The Derby winner continues to impress observers with his fitness and no-nonsense demeanor during his workouts. He’s been training at Churchill Downs and won’t have any actual workouts at Belmont though. Calvin Borel is back aboard which makes trainer Chip Woolley happy, since he believes Calvin fits the horse well. Closers don’t always do as well as you might think in the Belmont because there’s usually a slower pace up front. Calvin will probably be closer to the front than usual, and might have some company when he starts his run since a good ¾’s of the field are closers too. Timing his run just right will be very important, and things could get mighty interesting on that far turn. Pedigree-wise there’s a lot of stamina (he’s a son of Belmont winner, Birdstone) and his total Belmont winner factor is 5. He’ll be getting a perfect attendance award for the Triple Crown.
Flying Private – He’s the only other horse to get a Triple Crown perfect attendance award this year. He rebounded from a last place finish in the Derby to finish 4th in the Preakness after a bit of a troubled trip. He’s had one maintenance work at Churchill Downs since then, but has no workouts at Belmont Park. He’s the most experienced horse in the field with 12 lifetime starts, but only one win. Jockey Alan Garcia chose to ride Charitable Man instead, so Julien Leparoux picks up the mount. There are some good stamina influences a few generations back in the pedigree and a Belmont winner factor of 5. He’s the only Polish horse in the field.
Miner’s Escape – It wouldn’t be a Belmont Stakes without a Shoeless Nick Zito dark horse. Except Shoeless Nick has been training this guy out in the open at Belmont Park, not up at Saratoga like he usually does with his Belmont contenders. I’m not sure what’s up with that, but I find it interesting. This horse seems to be an improving sort whose 2 lifetime wins have come in his last two starts. He seems to have some early speed, so he might try to set the pace. There is some stamina in the pedigree, and his Belmont winner factor is 5.
Brave Victory – Shoeless Nick Zito’s other dark horse in the race, who has also not been training at Shoeless Nick’s secret Saratoga hideaway. He’s one of only two horses in the race who’s run at Belmont Park before. He ran 3rd behind Charitable Man in the Peter Pan Stakes there in his last race. He was born on Jesse’s birthday. There’s not a lot of stamina in the pedigree and the Belmont winner factor is 2. Something to keep in mind though, Shoeless Nick Zito has started 20 horses in the Belmont and they’ve finished in the money 55% of the time.
So, that’s the field. Perhaps not the most scintillating bunch ever gathered, but I think there’s potential for this to be quite a race. The jockeys are going to be big factors. Will they let the few speed horses set a slow pace which may compromise the chances of the closers? Who’s going to bite the bullet and apply the pressure? Is somebody going to screw up and move too soon?
In the 13ARFTCHC we have a lead pack with $79.20 and a pack of stalkers with $64.40. We’re turning for home and it’s anybody’s race. It might take a long shot winner of Sarava-like proportions to decide this one. So pick your three ponies and send them to me by post time on Saturday which is 6:27 pm. The television coverage is being done by ABC this time. You might also want to tune into some of the great races on the undercard televised by ESPN starting at noon.
My picks will be: Mine That Bird – I guess I ought to pick him at least once Dunkirk – 10 weeks ago he was the super-est of horses Charitable Man – I need some charity in this contest As usual I reserve the right to be shallow and change any of these picks if I see a pretty pony in the post parade.
Safe trips to all horses and humans.
May the horse be with you. And also with you. Lift up your bridle. We lift them up to the jockey. Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field. It is right to give him thanks and white carnations.
