Derby: Your Analysis Part I

Greetings all,

As promised, here is the first installment of factoids, rumors, and unsubstantiated opinions about the Derby runners. With a twenty horse field to cover I’ll be splitting this up into two emails.

Below I've included the rankings from my occasionally successful (4 winners in 13 years) Derby handicapping process. You know the drill by now. I evaluate each horse in seven different categories, with each horse being assigned a purely subjective rating between 1 and 10. Ten is the worst and 1 is the best. The seven ratings are then weighted and totaled according to a secret formula. In this system the lower the score the better. I have modified my system this year by dropping the photo category, and the remaining seven categories are as follows:

1. Breeding (B) – Does the horse have a pedigree that gives them a shot at running 1 ¼ miles faster than a slug? Do I personally like any of the horses in the pedigree or their half-siblings, cousins, stablemates,etc., and does the pedigree *not* contain Mr. Prospector or Storm Cat.

2. Hype (H) - Bad marks if I hear a horse's/trainer's name on the local news, or if I see the horse's/trainer's name in The Roanoke Times prior to Sat. (A horse/trainer would have to be a serious hype monster to make it past the Salem Red Sox/Nascar car spoiler coverage around here.)

3. Name (N) - Would the name look good on a Derby glass? Is it a clever or poetic name? What are the headline possibilities? Negative ratings for runallthewordstogethernames. A new criterion instituted last year and continued this year is, as one blogger put it, “a horse whose name can be shouted without embarrassment for two minutes straight”.

4. Mystery (M) - the dark horse category. How stupefied will the pundits be if this horse wins? The more stupefied the better.

5. Karma/best story (K) - Is there some touching, funny, sad story connected to the horse and/or his connections? Are the connections old timers ala Paul Mellon/Mack Miller with Sea Hero or are they refreshing newcomers like the Funny Cide group or the Smarty Party? Have the connections won before or are they still looking for that first magical win?

6. Annoyance (A) - How annoying will it be to me personally if this horse and/or connections win? This entire system is most successful when I weight this category the highest in the ratings. As usual I am annoyed by twenty horse fields, so I’m continuing to weight this category heavily. Not a common approach, I know, but I am "The Annoyed Handicapper."TM

7. The usual handicapping stuff (Hnd) - you know race records, workouts, post positions, speed figs, stuff that may or may not really matter come Derby Day anyway. I will also be paying attention to wet track performance this year. There is a flash flood watch in effect for Louisville on Saturday and Sunday with 1 – 2” of rain expected Saturday morning.

And now onward to the horses.

I’ve listed the first ten horses and my ratings for each.

2010	B	Hype	N	M	K	A	Hnd	total
Lookin at Lucky	3	5	3	6	4	1	3	28
Ice Box	2	3	4	5	4	3	3	33
Noble's Promise	7	4	4	4	4	4	5	44
Super Saver	2	3	6	5	4	1	4	28
Line of David	4	3	4	4	3	3	4	34
Stately Victor	3	4	3	3	4	3	5	34
American Lion	5	3	4	5	3	4	5	41
Dean's Kitten	3	3	5	6	4	4	6	43
Make Music For Me	7	2	4	2	4	4	8	43
Paddy O'Prado	4	4	6	4	4	4	5	43

Lookin at Lucky – If it weren't for bad luck he'd have no luck at all. In his last few races his running lines include the words “steadied”, “jumped heels”, and “bumped”. Now he's drawn the rail at the Derby where it's almost certain he will have to steady, jump heels, and get bumped. Still, with all his trouble in prep races he has managed to win 2 of his last 3, and he's always in the money. He was the champion 2 year old colt last year. He seems to be training well over the muddy track at Churchill Downs, posting a bullet work on Monday. His pedigree has a reasonable chance of helping him get 1 ¼ miles faster than the other horses, and he's a great-grandson of Danzig, so that makes him a Polish horse (As Thom says, “You can tell.”)

Ice Box – Shoeless Nick Zito brings this closer who won the Florida Derby 6 weeks ago. The 6 weeks off might negate his good race-bad race pattern (we're due for the bad race this time), and he's been working lights out including a bullet 4 furlongs at sloppy Churchill last Friday. He's a bit of an all or nothing horse in that he either wins or is out of the money. He's never raced on a sloppy track, but the workouts and pedigree say he ought to do ok and get the 1 ¼ miles.

Noble's Promise – He finished 5^th in the Arkansas Derby in his last start behind Line of David, Super Saver, and Dublin, but he had a rough trip in the race, sustained cuts to his legs and was dealing with a lung infection, so maybe throw that race out. Prior to that race he had finished 2^nd in his last 2 races beaten by Lookin at Lucky each time. After a sharp workout at muddy Churchill Monday morning, his lungs were checked and pronounced clear of infection and his connections decided to head for the Derby. It all sounds a bit last minute to me. He's never won at any distance over 1 1/16 miles and his pedigree is pretty suspect for anything approaching 1 ¼ miles. He does have by far the highest mud pedigree rating in the field and his workouts support that.

Super Saver - Whenever I hear his name I think Winn-Dixie. Wasn't that the store that always offered super saver discounts? They were the store that used to give out the tickets for the televised horse race sweepstakes show. Those are some of the earliest races I remember watching. Anyway Super Saver the horse finished 2nd behind Line of David in the Arkansas Derby last out. His last win actually came at Churchill Downs last fall. He's one of the speedier horses in the race, but jockey Calvin Borel might head directly for his beloved rail position after the start and tuck in behind the leaders. Super Saver has worked well over the sloppy Churchill track and has a mud-loving pedigree as well as a stamina-laden one. This is the first of trainer Todd (0 for 24 in the Derby) Pletcher's 4 horses in the race.

Line of David – He won the Arkansas Derby wire to wire in his last start holding off Super Saver and Dublin in the stretch. That was also his first race on real dirt and his first stakes race. He seems to be a steadily improving horse, but he hasn't been working particularly well at muddy Churchill even though his pedigree does say he should like the mud. He's a son of Lion Heart who finished second to Smarty Jones in the muddy 2004 Derby and there's some other stamina in the pedigree.

Stately Victor – He was last seen closing in the stretch to win the Blue Grass Stakes going away on Keeneland's fake dirt. Prior to that he'd been putting in some uninspired efforts in a couple of turf races in Florida, but he's also raced a couple of times on the dirt and showed improvement. He raced once at Churchill last fall finishing 7^th. Lately he's been working well on a sloppy training track near Churchill Downs and has really impressed observers with his appearance. His pedigree has quite a bit of stamina and some mud affinity as well.

American Lion – He won the Illinois Derby wire to wire in his last start holding off Backtalk among others. That was his first start on real dirt. Before that race he'd been running 3^rd and 4^th on the fake dirt in California behind horses like Sidney's Candy. He has something of a good race – bad race pattern and it's time for the bad race, but trainer Eoin Harty says he found a four leaf clover this week and he's seen some other good omens. American Lion had a leisurely workout in the Churchill mud on Monday but Harty said they weren't trying for anything fast. American Lion has an excellent mud pedigree rating with a reasonable amount of stamina influences.

Dean's Kitten – He won the Lane's End on the fake dirt at Turfway Park last out. Prior to that he finished 2^nd behind Paddy O'Prado on the turf at Gulfstream Park. He seems to be another one of the steadily improving horses in the race. His lone dirt race was in the mud at Belmont last fall where he finished a very distant 5^th behind Eskendereya. He been's working at the same sloppy training track as Stately Victor, but only has one so-so workout in the slop. He's a son VA Derby winner Kitten's Joy and the 1 ¼ mile distance shouldn't be an issue, but the mud might be.

Make Music for Me – He was literally the last horse in and only made the field when Endorsement was injured the morning of the post position draw. He finished 6^th in the Blue Grass last out after a troubled trip, but 2 races back he won a small stakes on the turf in California. Last fall he ran 3^rd behind Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise in the Cash Call Futurity. His pedigree is pretty iffy for the distance, but his mudder is from a mud-loving family. He will be the first Derby starter for all his connections.

Paddy O'Prado – The name rolls right off the tongue, but I always think of patio furniture when I hear it, and really, shouldn't Edgar Prado be riding this horse? Kent Desormeaux has the mount as he did when they were overtaken in the stretch of the Blue Grass and finished 2^nd to Stately Victor. Two races back he beat Dean's Kitten on the turf at Gulfstream Park. He's raced almost exclusively on turf and fake dirt, but he did make his first start on a sloppy Churchill Downs track last summer and finished an uninspired 7^th. He did post a bullet workout at sloppy Churchill last week though. His pedigree has quite a bit of stamina, but it's more slanted towards turf rather than dirt or mud.

That's the first ten.