13ARFTCHC - Belmont field

Greetings all,

It’s Belmont time again. There’s no Triple Crown possibility this year, but there is a chance for a Calvin Crown. Calvin Borel has a chance to become the first jockey to win all three Triple Crown races in one year riding more than one horse. Calvin has assured everyone who will listen that he’ll be on the winner this Saturday. Kent Desormeaux has called Calvin, “Naïve.” Yeah, Kent knows all about how extreme confidence in your chances can turn into easing your horse in the Belmont stretch – see Big Brown last year. Anyway, Derby winner Mine That Bird faces nine other horses Saturday, and we’ll see if Calvin’s confidence is misplaced.

As always remember the Belmont is 1 ½ miles long – a full ¼ mile (or about the length of the Churchill Downs homestretch) further than the Derby. Most of these horses will never run this far again, let alone around just two turns like they will at Belmont Park. This race has fooled more than one jockey into moving too soon only to realize with dismay he’s not even close to the finish. The horses are listed below along with the usual conglomeration of factoids, unsubstantiated rumors, snide observations, and half-baked statistics. Just for my amusement I’ve compiled a Belmont winner factor for each horse which is merely the number of times a Belmont winner shows up in the first five generations of the pedigree. It wasn’t particularly helpful for picking the winner last year, but I figure I’ll give it another shot.

Chocolate Candy – He’s been training at Belmont Park since his 5th place finish in the Derby. His workouts included a nice 7/8 mile work on May 25. He gets a new jockey in Garret Gomez who, despite being the top jockey in America the last two years, is still looking for his first win in a Triple Crown race. The pedigree looks pretty good for middle distance races, but there’s not a whole lot that says 1 ½ miles, and his Belmont winner factor is 2.

Dunkirk – He’s also been training steadily at Belmont Park since the Derby. He was 11th in that race after being bumped and steadied at various points. He still is a little light on race experience. The Belmont will be just his 5th lifetime start. He’s actually run the highest speed figure of any horse in the field. His pedigree has a lot of stamina a couple of generations back and his Belmont winner factor is 4. John Velazquez will be riding Dunkirk for the first time. He won the Belmont 2 years ago on Rags to Riches for trainer Todd Pletcher.

Mr. Hot Stuff – He ran 15th in the Derby after being bumped and squeezed at the start. He’s been stabled at Keeneland since then where he has two bullet works on the fake dirt. He gets a new jockey in 2-time Belmont winner, Edgar Prado. His pedigree has some stamina, and he has a Belmont winner factor of 4. His trainer, Eoin Harty, is the anti-Calvin Borel regarding his horse’s chances. He says, "I have no idea how he'll run. I'm going to throw him in there and see what happens."

Summer Bird – He closed from 16th to 6th place in the Derby. He’s been training at Belmont for the last couple of weeks including a nice 7/8 mile workout 2 weeks ago. He’s only run 4 races lifetime, with 1 win and a 3rd place finish. Kent Desormeaux will be riding him for the first time, and rookie trainer Tim Ice will be adding blinkers. There’s quite a lot of stamina in the pedigree, and he’s a son of Belmont winner, Birdstone, just like Mine That Bird. The total Belmont winner factor is 4.

Luv Gov – He ran 8th in the Preakness after going 8 wide into the stretch. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas (winner of 4 Belmonts) took him back to Churchill Downs after the race and he’s had one nice work since then. His speed figures have really improved in his last couple of races, but he still has only one lifetime win. He gets jockey Miguel Mena back who was aboard for that lone victory. The pedigree has a lot of stamina a couple of generations back and his sire, Ten Most Wanted, ran 2nd to Empire Maker in the 2003 Belmont Stakes. The Belmont winner factor is 2.

Charitable Man – He’s one of only two horses in the race that have raced at Belmont Park. He’s 2 for 2 at the track, including a win in the Peter Pan Stakes 4 weeks ago which is the traditional Belmont prep race. He was one of the leading 2 year olds last year until he was injured. He just made it back to the races in April, so he’s lightly-raced, but he seems to still be improving. He has a lot of stamina in the pedigree. He’s a son of 1999 Belmont winner, Lemon Drop Kid, and he has a total Belmont winner factor of 4. He’s one the few horses in the race with any early speed. Jockey Alan Garcia won the Belmont last year wire to wire on Da’Tara.

Mine That Bird – The Derby winner continues to impress observers with his fitness and no-nonsense demeanor during his workouts. He’s been training at Churchill Downs and won’t have any actual workouts at Belmont though. Calvin Borel is back aboard which makes trainer Chip Woolley happy, since he believes Calvin fits the horse well. Closers don’t always do as well as you might think in the Belmont because there’s usually a slower pace up front. Calvin will probably be closer to the front than usual, and might have some company when he starts his run since a good ¾’s of the field are closers too. Timing his run just right will be very important, and things could get mighty interesting on that far turn. Pedigree-wise there’s a lot of stamina (he’s a son of Belmont winner, Birdstone) and his total Belmont winner factor is 5. He’ll be getting a perfect attendance award for the Triple Crown.

Flying Private – He’s the only other horse to get a Triple Crown perfect attendance award this year. He rebounded from a last place finish in the Derby to finish 4th in the Preakness after a bit of a troubled trip. He’s had one maintenance work at Churchill Downs since then, but has no workouts at Belmont Park. He’s the most experienced horse in the field with 12 lifetime starts, but only one win. Jockey Alan Garcia chose to ride Charitable Man instead, so Julien Leparoux picks up the mount. There are some good stamina influences a few generations back in the pedigree and a Belmont winner factor of 5. He’s the only Polish horse in the field.

Miner’s Escape – It wouldn’t be a Belmont Stakes without a Shoeless Nick Zito dark horse. Except Shoeless Nick has been training this guy out in the open at Belmont Park, not up at Saratoga like he usually does with his Belmont contenders. I’m not sure what’s up with that, but I find it interesting. This horse seems to be an improving sort whose 2 lifetime wins have come in his last two starts. He seems to have some early speed, so he might try to set the pace. There is some stamina in the pedigree, and his Belmont winner factor is 5.

Brave Victory – Shoeless Nick Zito’s other dark horse in the race, who has also not been training at Shoeless Nick’s secret Saratoga hideaway. He’s one of only two horses in the race who’s run at Belmont Park before. He ran 3rd behind Charitable Man in the Peter Pan Stakes there in his last race. He was born on Jesse’s birthday. There’s not a lot of stamina in the pedigree and the Belmont winner factor is 2. Something to keep in mind though, Shoeless Nick Zito has started 20 horses in the Belmont and they’ve finished in the money 55% of the time.

So, that’s the field. Perhaps not the most scintillating bunch ever gathered, but I think there’s potential for this to be quite a race. The jockeys are going to be big factors. Will they let the few speed horses set a slow pace which may compromise the chances of the closers? Who’s going to bite the bullet and apply the pressure? Is somebody going to screw up and move too soon?

In the 13ARFTCHC we have a lead pack with $79.20 and a pack of stalkers with $64.40. We’re turning for home and it’s anybody’s race. It might take a long shot winner of Sarava-like proportions to decide this one. So pick your three ponies and send them to me by post time on Saturday which is 6:27 pm. The television coverage is being done by ABC this time. You might also want to tune into some of the great races on the undercard televised by ESPN starting at noon.

My picks will be:
Mine That Bird – I guess I ought to pick him at least once
Dunkirk – 10 weeks ago he was the super-est of horses
Charitable Man – I need some charity in this contest
As usual I reserve the right to be shallow and change any of these picks if I see a pretty pony in the post parade.

Safe trips to all horses and humans.

May the horse be with you.
And also with you.
Lift up your bridle.
We lift them up to the jockey.
Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.
It is right to give him thanks and white carnations.

~The Annoyed Handicapper

Twas the Thursday Night Before the Belmont...

"All of them run a mile and a half. Some of them just take a little longer."

~D.Wayne Lukas

Belmont Revisited, Contest Results

One advantage to waiting so long to write a summary of the Belmont Stakes is I'm able to compile quite a list of reasons, excuses, and conspiracy theories that have been floated for Big Brown’s loss. Injury and illness have been ruled out, but we're still left with the following most popular items:

• The quarter crack bothered him during the race.
• The missed training and enforced rest due to the quarter crack left him too antsy and difficult to handle around the barn for the last couple of weeks. Much different than his usual easy-going nature.
• The excessive heat (90+ degrees) bothered him.
• The race was fixed by the mafia.
• Big Brown was too lightly-raced and lacked the fitness and maturity horses develop through racing.
• Big Brown lacks competitive fortitude. When things didn't go his way going into the first turn he basically packed it in for the day.
• Big Brown was rank during the race and never relaxed.
• Not enough stamina in the pedigree.
• No steroids since April.
• Kent Desormeaux’s an idiot and all that maneuvering on the first turn was completely unnecessary.
• Rick Dutrow’s an idiot and trained Big Brown too lightly after the Preakness.
• The Racing Gods do not appreciate hubris. While they have no problem with quiet confidence on the part of a horse’s connections, they take a dim view of people who completely disregard the part the Racing Gods and racing luck can play in the outcome of a race.

So take your pick from the above list or come up with a reason of your own. Whatever the reason or reasons we're still left Triple Crownless for another year. But let’s give the winner some props. That was a fine race run by Da’Tara and a very heady ride by jockey Alan Garcia. And how about Shoeless Nick Zito? His Belmont record just keeps improving. Denis of Cork put in a good run to finish a respectable second, and Ready’s Echo and Anak Nakal finished in an exciting dead heat. An abbreviated chart is listed below.

Belmont S. - Grade: 1
Winning Time:2:29.65

Pgm	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
6	Da' Tara	Alan Garcia	79.00	28.00	14.80
4	Denis of Cork	Robby Albarado		5.40	4.10
9	Ready's Echo	John R. Velazquez			6.20
8	Anak Nakal	Julien R. Leparoux			7.60

Race Comments: DA' TARA angled in after taking the lead in the early stages, opened a clear advantage on the first turn, raced uncontested on the front while moving to the three path on the backstretch, dug in when threatened briefly on the turn, drifted out after being struck left handed with the whip at the three-sixteenths pole, straightened away when the rider switched to the right hand whip in midstretch and edged away under steady urging through the final eighth. DENIS OF CORK was unhurried early, moved out entering the backstretch, raced in the middle of the pack while four wide for seven furlongs, split rivals while gaining midway on the turn, advanced four wide at the top of the stretch, took up chase after the winner in upper stretch but was no match for that one while clearly best of the others. ANAK NAKAL was bumped by BIG BROWN and carried out on the first turn, angled in a bit approaching the backstretch, raced within striking distance in the three path for seven furlongs, moved between horses when asked for run midway on then turn then closed gradually to gain a share. READY'S ECHO was outrun for a half, saved ground leaving the far turn, swung six wide nearing the quarter pole and failed to menace while improving his position late. MACHO AGAIN was rated in good position between horses, angled to the rail on the far turn, lodged a mild rally along the inside to reach contention at the top of the stretch, but failed to sustain his bid. TALE OF EKATI pressed the early pace from outside, tracked the winner while five wide along the backstretch, raced just behind that rival into upper stretch and steadily tired thereafter. GUADALCANAL stumbled and checked at the start and never reached contention while saving ground throughout. ICABAD CRANE was never a factor while four wide. BIG BROWN steadied and broke outward at the start, moved up inside, steadied sharply while rank in the opening quarter of a mile, steadied and was taken to the outside bumping with ANAK ANKAL on the first turn, swung seven wide moving into the backstretch, stalked the leaders while continuing wide for seven furlongs, was asked for run when tapped left handed on the far turn then dropped back abruptly midway on the turn and was pulled up approaching the quarter pole.

In the 12ARFTCHC Jeane Marie was the only person who picked Da’Tara, so she made a bold move to pass Gordon and wind up in third place in the contest. Peter picked Denis of Cork to widen his lead over Jacqueline coming down the stretch. He finished with a very nice total of $256.30. Congratulations to Peter for winning in his first attempt at the contest. Not an easy thing to do in this company.

So another year, another contest, another Triple Crown miss. Tune in again next spring when the whole process cranks up again with new heroes, villains, horses, and stories. In the meantime the racing on the track continues. Some of this year’s horses have already returned to the track. Smooth Air and Pyro won their return races. Court Vision, Adriano, and Kentucky Bear tried the turf at Colonial Downs yesterday with mixed success. Look for Big Brown to reappear in the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park in early August. Shoeless Nick will probably have some of his horses in the Travers at the end of August. Lots of good stuff yet to come.

Until next year,

May the horse be with you.

And also with you.
Lift up your bridle.

We lift them up to the jockey.

Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.

It is right to give him thanks and blankets of flowers.

Sore Loser

I figured that when Rick Dutrow, Jr. finally spoke up about the Belmont Stakes, he'd find a way to place blame. In this AP Wire Report, he does just that.

"I don't know why he had to do that," said Dutrow, who questioned Desormeaux's decisions in the race.

Entering the first turn, Desormeaux took a hard hold of Big Brown and yanked him to the outside, bumping with Anak Nakal before finding running room outside of Tale of Ekati while Da' Tara opened up a three-length lead around the clubhouse turn.

"I'm sure he didn't have any idea what the hell was going on going into the first turn the way (Desormeaux) was switching him all over the damn track," Dutrow said. "I don't know what he was doing."

I'm no jockey, but what I saw Kent Desormeaux do was save a horse. He realized that for whatever reason, he didn't have a horse. Based on his past experience with this horse, he suspected something was wrong, so he pulled the plug on his race. It was a brave move and the right move.

Perhaps Dutrow should just go hide in a barn. No one likes a sore loser.

Belmont Results

Belmont 2008

Order of Finish

1. Da' Tara
2. Denis of Cork
3. Anak Nakal
3. Ready's Echo
5. Macho Again
6. Tale of Ekati
7. Guadalcanal
8. Icabad Crane
9. Big Brown

Successes: I correctly pegged Denis of Cork and Ready's Echo. They finished in exactly the places I predicted. Also I pretty much pegged places 5,6,7,8...just flip my last two up to the top of the board and move the others down.

Surprises:
1. Big Brown...This is one where the information was out there to be digested, but it had become too difficult to act upon. Big Brown is not bred for distance. The Derby 1 1/4 mile should have been a stretch for him, but he finished both the Derby and Preakness galloping out firmly. It gave people a solid reason to discount his breeding. Big Brown didn't get the Big shot last month. He had been taken off the steroid, winstrol. Could that have reduced Big Brown's endurance? Big Brown was agitated earlier in the day. He was kicking his stall and general in a state of extreme unease. Was the heat getting to him? Taken as a whole with hindsight, there was information out there to steer a person away from Big Brown....but that hype machine was so very strong.

2. Anak Nakal: I've been waiting for this son of Victory Gallop to finally show up on the board all year. Finally! I had given up on him. But "Shoeless" Nick Zito knew better.

3. Da' Tara: Where the heck did that come from? This is a horse that had never won a graded stakes race. I knew he had the pace and would likely be out front early; however, I figured he'd fade away. What I failed to give weight to was his pedigree. Being the son of Tiznow, he certainly was bred to get some distance.

Picks From One Who Knows Not What or Why

Well now that the scratch of Casino Drive is final for today's Belmont Stakes in Elmont, NY, I'll make my picks.

Here's my projected order of finish.

1. Big Brown: This horse has shown absolutely no weaknesses against the fields presented to him. Today's field looks no more threatening. The only real foe is a horse named Arrogance.

2. Denis of Cork: Denis of Cork is an intriguing horse. With Calvin "Bo-rail" replaced, I think he may end up with a better trip. Wouldn't it be ironic if Robbie Albarado sends him to the rail to draft Big Brown around the track.

3. Ready's Echo: Johnny V knows how to ride in the Belmont. This horse has improved in every race. Will he improve enough to place ahead of Macho Again and Tale of Ekati? I'm guessing yes.

4. Macho Again: Fame can be fleeting. His last effort in The Preakness was excellent and driving, but as The Annoyed Handicapper points out, Big Brown was just jogging to the finish as Macho Again gained on him. I might reconsider this horse later in the afternoon in the post parade.

5. Tale of Ekati: I go back and forth on this horse. He could very well finish second, but somehow I think he will underachieve today.

6. Guadalcanal: It wouldn't surprise me to see this horse sneak into the money. He's an unknown that apparently was blessed by local doctors . The Belmont has a way of favoring the unknown and discounted.

7. Icabad Crane: His effort in The Preakness was excellent; however, I don't see him extending that to The Belmont. A mile and a half is a long, long way.

8. Anak Nakal: The horse that has most disappointed me this year has yet another opportunity to finish in the back of the pack.

9. Da'Tara: Having a front-running style does not serve anything except granting a stalking path for Big Brown. He should be used up before they turn for home.

~Newt

Casino Drive Parked

The trainer for Casino Drive, the Japanese import and brother to Jazil and Rags to Riches, has been scratched from today's Belmont thanks to a stone bruise on his back left hoof. Meanwhile Big Brown is still set to run with his epoxied hoof.

If you are a member of our little family tournament, please adjust your picks accordingly.

Belmont Field

Here we go again. On Saturday Big Brown will attempt to beat nine other horses and become the 12th Triple Crown winner. Thirty years ago Affirmed beat Alydar by a nose to win the last Triple Crown. Since then ten other horses have come into the Belmont with a chance but failed to win this final race. Winning the Derby is hard because you need to have a good horse, a good trip through, around, or in front of the crowded field, and a lot of luck. Winning the Preakness afterwards is harder because you need a good sturdy horse, a good trip, and a bit of luck. Winning the Belmont after these first two races is hardest of all. You need to have a very sturdy, very good horse. You need a jockey who won't panic, become impatient, or fall asleep during the long race. You need a trainer who won't panic, become impatient, or fall asleep during the three weeks after the Preakness. You need some luck and a heapin' helpin' of Destiny. Big Brown appears to have all these qualities. But... you never know. That's why they make them run around the track. By the way, if that paragraph sounds familiar, it's because it's exactly what I wrote in previous years about Funny Cide and Smarty Jones. Here we go again, indeed.

As always remember the Belmont is 1 ½ miles long – a full ¼ mile (or about the length of the Churchill Downs homestretch) further than the Derby. Most of these horses will never run this far again, let alone around just two turns. This race has fooled more than one jockey into moving too soon only to realize with dismay he’s not even close to the finish. The horses are listed below along with the usual conglomeration of factoids, unsubstantiated rumors, snide observations, and half-baked statistics.



Big Brown – They’re thinking seriously about giving him a ticker tape parade in NYC if he pulls this off and things were going great until he popped a quarter crack in his left front hoof. Trainer Rick Dutrow and hoof specialist Ian McKinlay both say it is healing very well and should not be an issue for the race. Big Brown just had a bullet work Tuesday morning on the foot, so maybe we should believe them. Big Brown has quite a bit of stamina in his pedigree (and he’s Polish too). Just for my amusement I’ve compiled a Belmont winner factor for each horse which is merely the number of times a Belmont winner shows up in the first five generations of the pedigree. Big Brown leads the field this year with six Belmont winners in his family. Kent Desormeaux will be seeking to lay to rest the ghosts of his previous Triple Crown attempt aboard Real Quiet where he lost by a nose to Victory Gallop. Some people said he moved his horse too soon in that race, let’s see if he’s more patient this time.

Guadalcanal – This maiden was literally a last minute entry. Owner-trainer Fred Seitz makes no claims that he’s going to win, but he thinks his horse is a long distance specialist who could end up in the money. Guadalcanal did lose a 1 ½ mile turf race by a nose in his last out at Churchill Downs and he’s bred to run all day on his mom’s side. He has a Belmont winner factor of three. He’s a closer, so at least he won’t get in the way if he can’t keep up. He was born on Greg’s birthday. You know the last time a maiden was entered in the Belmont by an owner who merely aspired to finish in the money Nolan’s Cat finished third behind Afleet Alex.

Macho Again – He finished a nice second in the Preakness after going 5-wide into the stretch. He actually managed to close a little ground in late stretch, but of course Big Brown was practically walking by that point. After the Preakness he returned to Churchill Downs where he had one nice maintenance work last week. The pedigree is pretty light on major stamina influences and his Belmont winner factor is only one.

Denis of Cork – He’s had a nice rest since his third place finish in the Derby, and he’s had a few good workouts at Churchill Downs. He has a good race-bad race speed figure pattern and it looks like he’s due for the bad race this time. He has a new jockey in Robbie Albarado who replaces Calvin Borel. The pedigree has quite a bit of stamina, but the Belmont winner factor is only two.

Casino Drive – The Japanese horse who’s been a topic of conversation since he arrived in the U.S. earlier this spring. He won his first start in Japan by 11 ½ lengths back in February and then won the traditional Belmont prep race, the Peter Pan Stakes, by 5 ¾ lengths in May earning a speed figure comparable to Big Brown’s. His Japanese trainer has the racing media befuddled by his training methods which include two long brisk walks for the horse each day and occasional workouts that are run so slowly they aren’t even counted as timed workouts. The most notable thing about Casino Drive is he is the half brother of Rags to Riches and Jazil the last two Belmont winners. So Big Brown is not the only horse going for a Triple in the Belmont. Casino Drive’s dam, Better Than Honour, is attempting to become the only horse to produce three consecutive winners of a Triple Crown race. His pedigree also has a Belmont winner factor of five which is second best in the race.

Da’Tara – He ran second in the Barbaro Stakes on the Preakness undercard, fifth behind Macho Again in the Derby Trial, and ninth behind Big Brown in the Florida Derby. His speed figures have been gradually improving though. Shoeless Nick Zito took him up to Saratoga to train after his last race and he had a nice workout on the deep training track up there. He’s basically the only front-runner in the race, so it might be up to jockey Alan Garcia to set the pace for Big Brown. The pedigree is pretty good for 1 ¼ miles, but the really good stamina is a couple of generations back. He does have a Belmont winner factor of three.

Tale of Ekati – He returned to Belmont Park after his nice fourth place finish in the Derby. Trainer Barclay Tagg has sounded like Goldilocks when describing his horse’s workouts. The first was too fast, the second was too slow, the last one was just right. Tale of Ekati won two races at Belmont Park last year. His pedigree has a lot of stamina on his mom’s side, and he has a Belmont winner factor of two.

Anak Nakal – His name means “mischievous child” which actually sounds a lot like his trainer Shoeless Nick Zito when it comes to the Belmont. Shoeless Nick has run twenty previous horses in the race and has one win, six seconds, and two thirds. That’s almost 50% in the money. Anak Nakal ran seventh in the Derby after going 7-wide into the stretch. After the Derby Shoeless Nick stashed him up at Saratoga where the horse has had some quite nice workouts. He’s winless this year, but did win a race at Belmont last year. He’s a son of Victory Gallop who ended Real Quiet’s Triple Crown bid by a nose ten years ago. There’s more stamina in the pedigree, but he only has a Belmont winner factor of one.

Ready’s Echo – Todd Pletcher was pointing this horse toward the VA Derby in July, but decided last weekend to try the Belmont instead. Ready’s Echo closed to finish third in the Peter Pan Stakes behind Casino Drive and earned a nice speed figure. He had a couple nice workouts at Belmont after that race. Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez will try to repeat their Belmont win with Rags to Riches last year. The pedigree has some stamina in it and he’s descended from the nice mare Becky Be Good. The Belmont winner factor is two.

Icabad Crane – He was last seen closing to finish third in the Preakness. His speed figures have been improving in his last few races and he had a nice workout at Fair Hill Training Center on Monday. The pedigree looks pretty good for stamina and the Belmont winner factor is four. Jockey Jeremy Rose won the 2005 Belmont with a nicely timed ride on Afleet Alex.


There’s the field – Is it Big Brown and More Not Ready for Prime Time Players? Or is it Big Brown and the Giant-Killer? Tune into ABC on Saturday to find out.

In the 12ARFTCHC Peter Andre has a $64 lead on Jacqueline with Gordon another $82 back in third. The rest of us are bunched tightly, contemplating our strategy as we head into the far turn. Who will make a move to catch the leaders? Send me your three picks by post time on Saturday (approx. 6:25 pm), and we’ll see.

My picks will be:
Big Brown – Again, duh …
Casino Drive – I want at least one of the Triples to happen. Besides I like the power-walking training regimen.
Ready’s Echo – He seems to be an improving sort.

Once again I reserve the right to be shallow and change any of these picks if I see a pretty pony in the post parade.

Safe trips to all horses and humans.

May the horse be with you.
And also with you.
Lift up your bridle.
We lift them up to the jockey.
Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.
It is right to give him thanks and white carnations.

~The Annoyed Handicapper

The Long Shot

I loved War Emblem. 2002 was the year that I really began following horse racing with renewed vigor. I watched the Belmont that year eagerly anticipating the coronation of a new Triple Crown champ. It was a slam dunk in my mind. War Emblem had been blasting the competition after his brilliant awakening at the Illinois Derby on April 6, 2002 followed by his solid four length victory over Proud Citizen in the Kentucky Derby and even his squeaker in The Preakness over local upstart Magic Weisner.

No one gave the 70-1 long shot, Sarava, a chance. Yet Edgar Prado, Maryland racing god, picked up the mount of this Pimlico long shot and rode him to a 1/2 length win over Medaglia d'Oro.

Now six years later, another horse is awaiting the coronation after the 2008 Belmont and a new long shot has entered the field; Guadalcanal. Can the long shot magic happen again?