Derby Preview

Greetings all,

It's almost May. That means it’s time for the Fourteenth Annual Ryder Family Triple Crown Handicapping Contest (henceforth abbreviated as 14ARFTCHC).

You probably have the rules memorized by now. You pick three horses in each of the Triple Crown races - The Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands on May 1, the Preakness Stakes on May 15, and the Belmont Stakes on June 7. You'll then theoretically receive all possible payouts for $2 wagers (a total of $42 in wagers) involving those horses. If one of your horses wins, you get the win, place, and show payouts for that horse. If you pick the first two finishers you get the win, place, and show payouts of both horses plus the exacta payout, and so on. The order in which you pick your horses doesn't matter since I’ll box all the wagers giving you all the possible finishing combinations of your three horses. After all three races the person with the most money won is declared the winner. Last year in our contest, Gordon hit the Belmont trifecta to win by a neck over defending champion, Peter Andre. Dad/Joe/Grandfather continued his usual success in this contest by finishing third.

Don't forget to check the ARFTCHC blog. Thom has posted some Derby thoughts, and I’ll be posting my field notes on it. You guys can post your comments and picks there for everyone to see too. You’ll find the blog at http://arftchc.blogspot.com/ You also can still email me your picks if you like. I've listed the horses and their connections below. Please send me your three horses by post time on Saturday which is approximately 6:24 pm EDT with NBC starting their coverage at 5:00 pm.

So here are the entrants in post position order.

PP	Horse	ML	Trainer	Jockey
1	Lookin At Lucky	3-1	Bob Baffert	Garrett Gomez
2	Ice Box	10-1	Nick Zito	Jose Lezcano
3	Noble's Promise	12-1	Ken McPeek	Willie Martinez
4	Super Saver	15-1	Todd Pletcher	Calvin Borel
5	Line of David	30-1	John Sadler	Rafael Bejarano
6	Stately Victor	30-1	Mike Maker	Alan Garcia
7	American Lion	30-1	Eoin Harty	David Flores
8	Dean's Kitten	50-1	Mike Maker	Robby Albarado
9	Make Music For Me	50-1	Alexis Barba	Joel Rosario
10	Paddy O'Prado	20-1	Dale Romans	Kent Desormeaux
11	Devil May Care	10-1	Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez
12	Conveyance	12-1	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia
13	Jackson Bend	15-1	Nick Zito	Mike Smith
14	Mission Impazible	20-1	Todd Pletcher	Rajiv Maragh
15	Discreetly Mine	30-1	Todd Pletcher	Javier Castellano
16	Awesome Act	10-1	Jeremy Noseda	Julien Leparoux
17	Dublin	12-1	D. Wayne Lukas	Terry Thompson
18	Backtalk	50-1	Tom Amoss	Miguel Mena
19	Homeboykris	50-1	Rick Dutrow	Ramon Dominguez
20	Sidney's Candy	3-1	John Sadler	Joe Talamo

As usual in the Derbies of the 21st century you have horses bucking long-standing historical trends, handicappers scratching their heads over fake dirt vs. real dirt performance, and a full field of twenty horses consisting of a couple of standouts and a bunch of "meh" performers. (Yes, I did write the exact same thing last year. Deja vu anyone?) The depth of the field was compromised when the favorite Eskendereya and other talented horses such as Endorsement, Interactif, and Rule all withdrew with injuries or poor training in the last few days. There are lots of new names among the connections as well as some regulars. Trainers D. Wayne Lukas, Bouncy Bob Baffert, Shoeless Nick Zito, and Todd (0 for 24!) Pletcher are all back for another try at the roses.

I will be sending my own collection of factoids, rumors, and unsubstantiated opinions about the entrants in a couple of separate emails as well as posting them on the ARFTCHC blog. So grab your favorite handicapping pen, your dartboard, Magic 8 Ball, or your prognosticating pet and let me know your three Derby horses.

May the horse be with you.

And also with you.
Lift up your bridle.

We lift them up to the jockey.

Let us shower tokens upon the jockey, our commander in the field.

It is right to give him thanks and roses.

Libby

"Runnin'Mother": A Preakness Review

“That is a runnin' mother.” Calvin Borel in the jockeys' room after the Preakness.

That pretty much sums up the Preakness. Rachel Alexandra outran the speed and held off the closers in an impressive performance. It was all the more impressive when Calvin Borel stated after the race that Rachel Alexandra had difficulty handling the track and we hadn't seen her best effort in the race. I thought the most interesting part of the race was watching Rachel Alexandra in the lead down the backstretch. If you can find a replay watch her ears. She's running with her ears pricked, but she has one ear swiveling around to track Big Drama to her inside while the other ear is tracking Friesan Fire to her outside. She knew exactly where her competition was and she wasn't about to let them go by. Too bad we won't get to see a repeat performance in the Belmont next week. Her connections announced Friday that she will skip that race in favor of some R & R. She's also taking advantage of the downtime to pose for a photo spread to run in the August issue of Vogue. I'm not sure what a Vogue photo shoot of a horse will entail – artfully draped saddle towels? Provocative poses involving leather bridles and hay bales? The mind boggles.

Meanwhile Preakness runner up Mine That Bird continues to prepare for the Belmont. Rachel's vacation did allow Calvin Borel the opportunity to get back on his Derby winner. Mike Smith already had a commitment to ride a horse in a California stakes race on Belmont day. He also rides the fabulous race mare, Zenyatta, for the same connections, so he's not about to screw up that arrangement even to ride a Derby winner in the Belmont. Now we have the unlikely prospect of a jockey going for a Triple Crown by riding two different horses. It's been that kind of year.

Some other familiar faces will return for the Belmont - Dunkirk, Summer Bird, Chocolate Candy, and Mr. Hot Stuff from the Derby, and maybe Flying Private as well. Meanwhile Nick Zito has a couple more under the radar horses stashed up at his training facility in Saratoga. So hang on folks we're not done with the drama yet.

In the 13ARFTCHC several people had the Preakness exacta and have overtaken Joey to form a lead pack. There's another pack bunched closely behind. You can find your results in the chart below.

I'll be back later this week with the entries and post positions for the Belmont Stakes. Until then May the horse be with you.

~The Annoyed Handicapper