Greetings all,
As promised, here is the first installment of factoids, rumors, and unsubstantiated opinions about the Derby runners. With a twenty horse field to cover I’ll be splitting this up into two emails.
Below I've included the rankings from my occasionally successful (4 winners in 11 years) Derby handicapping process. You know the drill by now. I evaluate each horse in eight different categories, with each horse being assigned a purely subjective rating between 1 and 10. Ten is the worst and 1 is the best. The eight ratings are then weighted and totaled according to a secret formula. In this system the lower the score the better. The eight categories are as follows:
1. Breeding (B) - includes not only dosage, but if I personally liked any of the horses in the pedigree or their half-siblings, cousins, stablemates,etc., and if the pedigree does *not* contain Mr. Prospector or Storm Cat.
2. Hype (H) - Bad marks if I hear a horse's/trainer's name on the local news, or if I see the horse's/trainer's name in The Roanoke Times prior to Sat. (A horse/trainer would have to be a serious hype monster to make it past the Chris (Did you know he’s Howie’s son?) Long NFL draft coverage/high school sports coverage around here.)
3. Name (N) - Would the name look good on a Derby glass? Is it a clever or poetic name? What are the headline possibilities? It looks like there might be some good headline possibilities this year. Negative ratings for runallthewordstogethernames.
4. Mystery (M) - the dark horse category. How stupefied will the pundits be if this horse wins? The more stupefied the better.
5. Karma/best story (K) - Is there some touching, funny, sad story connected to the horse and/or his connections? Are the connections old timers ala Paul Mellon/Mack Miller with Sea Hero or are they refreshing newcomers like the Funny Cide group or the Smarty Party? Have the connections won before or are they still looking for that first magical win?
6. Photos (P) - Do I have personal snapshots of the horse? Have I seen him or her run in person?
7. Annoyance (A) - How annoying will it be to me personally if this horse and/or connections win? This entire system is most successful when I weight this category the highest in the ratings. The trainers and jockeys have been relatively inoffensive this year, but I still find twenty horse fields annoying, so I’m continuing to weight this category heavily. Not a common approach, I know, but I am "The Annoyed Handicapper."TM
8. The usual handicapping stuff (H) - you know race records, workouts, post positions, speed figs, stuff that may or may not really matter come Derby Day anyway.
And now onward to the horses.
I’ve listed the first ten horses and my ratings for each.
(Click for larger image)
Cool Coal Man - “Shoeless” Nick Zito returns to the Derby. Cool Coal Man won the Fountain of Youth Stakes back in February beating Court Vision, then he was off for eight weeks before running a mystifyingly bad ninth in the Blue Grass on the fake dirt at Keeneland. He’s been stabled at Churchill Downs for the last month and has some nice workouts over the track. A somewhat in and out speed figure pattern might indicate he’s due for a good race in the Derby. He seems to prefer to be up pretty close to the pace and he’s raced twice before at Churchill Downs and won once. The pedigree is not bad for a mile and a quarter race.
Tale of Ekati – Funny Cide trainer Barclay Tagg returns with the winner of the Wood Memorial. He beat Court Vision and Anak Nakal in that race. He has only had two races this year, but did race four times last year including a nice fourth place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s named for Canada’s first diamond mine which was discovered by his owner. He’s been looking good in his workouts and gallops at Churchill Downs. The pedigree has some good stamina on his mother’s side, including Derby winners Sunday Silence and Northern Dancer.
Anak Nakal – “Shoeless” Nick Zito has a second entrant in the race. Anak Nakal has raced in three Derby preps this year and has finished no better than fifth behind horses like Tale of Ekati, Cool Coal Man and Court Vision. He does have steadily increasing, albeit somewhat low, speed figures. He also won the KY Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs last year and has been working well there for the last couple of weeks. He’s more of a mid-pack runner. As a son of Belmont winner Victory Gallop he should be able to get the distance ok. For the Wahoos among us you might note that he’s descended from the British horse, Charlottesville.
Court Vision – This is a horse who’s getting a lot of attention for a grinder - type who’s done no better than third place behind Tale of Ekati and Cool Coal Man in two races this year. Trainer Bill Mott has added blinkers though in his morning workouts and the horse appears to have really perked up. Blinkers will be on in the Derby. His speed figures have been steadily increasing in his last three races and he did win a race at Churchill Downs last year. The pedigree is a little speedy on his dad’s side, but his mom’s family comes to the rescue with some nice stamina influences.
Eight Belles – It’s been twenty years since a filly won the Derby. Winning Colors who died earlier this year won it in 1988. She was a big grey filly built like a defensive end. Eight Belles is a big grey filly built like a linebacker (think Xavier Adibi). Eight Belles is undefeated in four races this year, but she has never raced against the boys. Her speed figures and times say she ought to be competitive though. Trainer Larry Jones and Fox Hill Farms ran second last year with Hard Spun. Jockey Gabriel Saez will be making his first Derby start. Her pedigree should be ok for a mile and a quarter race.
Z Fortune – I have to be honest with you. I can’t keep the “Z” horses straight. Both are owned by Ahmed Zayat’s Zayat Stable, but they have different trainers. Z Fortune ran a nice second behind Gayego in the Arkansas Derby and second to Pyro in the Risen Star Stakes earlier this year. He’s not had particularly fast workouts at Churchill Downs but observers have noted that he looks really strong. He’s another of the horses who will probably be stalking from mid-pack. His pedigree might be a little iffy for a mile and a quarter.
Big Truck – Dopey name, but pretty pony. This is Barclay Tagg’s second horse in the race. Big Truck won the Tampa Bay Derby by a neck, but then came back and ran eleventh in the Blue Grass. Of course he wasn’t the only horse who ran mystifyingly badly in that race on the fake dirt and he has come back to post a bullet (fastest workout of the day) workout at Churchill Downs earlier this week. While he’s the son of a sprinter he is a grandson of Derby winner Go For Gin and has several other stamina influences a couple of generations back in his pedigree. He gets a good karma rating because his owner, Eric Fein, has enrolled Big Truck in a charity program that donates 10% of all his winnings to the ReRun horse charity which helps provide homes for retired racehorses.
Visionaire – Does anyone else think his name sounds like a 1950’s television? Let’s watch Ed Sullivan on the GE Visionaire TV! Well, ok, maybe it’s just me. He’s another of the horses last seen running mystifyingly badly in the Blue Grass Stakes on the fake dirt. He did manage to close some ground in the stretch of that race to go from eighth to fifth place. Prior to that race he won the Gotham at foggy, sloppy Aqueduct and ran third behind Pyro and Z Fortune in the Risen Star. He’ll be one of the closers coming from the back of the pack. His pedigree doesn’t scream mile and a quarter, but there is some stamina in it, albeit four or five generations back. He has been working well at Churchill Downs and observers have been impressed with his appearance.
Pyro – He was at the top of everyone’s list of Derby contenders until he (let’s all say it together) ran mystifyingly badly in the Blue Grass Stakes on the fake dirt. He finished tenth in that race and never looked comfortable from his first step out of the starting gate. In his two races prior to that this year he won the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby beating Z Fortune, Visionaire, Tale of Ekati, and others. In the Risen Star he appeared hopelessly blocked behind a wall of horses in deep stretch, but jockey Shaun Bridgmohan swung him to the outside and Pyro zoomed by the other horses to win easily. He has some of the best speed figures in the field, but most of them came last year when he ran second in the Champagne Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He did win a race at Churchill Downs last summer and he’s had a decent workout there earlier this week. His preferred running style is to close from the back but he’s versatile enough to lay closer to the pace too. He gets a good name rating for it being short, conducive to headlines, and as his owner, Ron Winchell, is quoted as saying, “Who wants to run against something named Pyro? That just sounds dangerous.”
Colonel John – He won the two main Derby preps in California, but he’s never run on anything but fake dirt. He did put in a bullet workout on the real dirt at Churchill Downs last week, so he might actually improve on the real stuff. He’s another of the closers who can take awhile to get into his top gear, but when he does he can really accelerate. He was a little erratic in the stretch in his last race, but once he hit the aforementioned top gear he straightened out and willingly ran an extra eighth of a mile past the finish line at jockey Corey Nakatani’s urging. Trainer Eoin Harty was Bob Baffert’s chief assistant during the campaigns of Silver Charm and Real Quiet, so he knows what the Derby is all about. Colonel John is named for Lt. Colonel John Geiber, an old family friend of the owners.
That’s half the field …
