Just a Bunch of Letters

James Scully in his The Handicappeer’s Report for brisnet.com has broken down the contenders in the upcoming 2008 Kentucky Derby. At this point, the field is not set in stone by any means; however, some reasonable deductions can be made as to which horses will run. Scully looks at the horses’ BRIS figures from their last three races. The first number in the list is the most recent race. What you can’t learn from the numbers is certain specific information about each race. For example, Bob Black Jack ran a credible 106 BRIS three races ago. What you might not know is that the race was a 6 ½ f sprint.

ADRIANO -- 101, 81, 97

ANAK NAKAL -- 96, 89, 84

BEHINDATTHEBAR -- 99, 90, 89

BIG BROWN -- 110, 102, 91

BIG TRUCK -- 83, 99, 96

BOB BLACK JACK -- 97, 93, 106

COLONEL JOHN -- 98, 90, 96

COOL COAL MAN -- 85, 100, 94

COURT VISION -- 98, 93, 90

COWBOY CAL -- 96, 94, 94

DENIS OF CORK -- 95, 99, 90

EIGHT BELLES -- 103, 99, 98

GAYEGO -- 101, 94, 99

MONBA -- 97, 55, 95

PYRO -- 84, 100, 96

RECAPTURETHEGLORY -- 104, 86, 99

SMOOTH AIR -- 105, 95, 99

TALE OF EKATI -- 100, 92, 94

VISIONAIRE -- 90, 100, 93

Z FORTUNE -- 100, 92, 94

Z HUMOR -- 99, 90, 91

There is some question about the filly, Eight Belles, running. She may opt for the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and be the solid favorite in that race.

A friend has told me several times that the Derby is one race that can’t really be handicapped effectively. There are too many variables. Young horses. Inexperienced horses. Two turns. Long distance. Global post positions. Synthetic vs dirt. Huge field. Huge, loud crowd with no view of the actual track standing on loud aluminum benches making a bunch of noise. About the only thing you can count on is that the race will happen on a surface comprised of soil.

So who will win? I haven’t a real clue. Big Brown, the latest in a short line of favorites this year, might suffer from bad feet and definitely has inexperience. Pyro, the fallen wonder horse, might just be the horse to beat. How will California run? Gayego and Colonel John want to know. Perhaps it will be a rekindling of magic when Recapturetheglory recalls the racing spirit of War Emblem and rides his Illinois Derby victory south to Kentucky. Will Denis of Cork find the promise that has slipped away from him since Illinois. Are the stars rising for Court Vision and Cowboy Cal? Will the Z’s overcome the A’s, B’s, and C’s?

So my prediction for Kentucky Derby 2008 is that the horses will finish in alphabetical order.