It’s Preakness time again, and this year four Derby horses have proven their worth to run in the Preakness. They will be joined by five newcomers who bring with them some old familiar connections. Let’s all welcome back D. Wayne “I’ve won 5 Preaknesses and don’t you forget it” Lukas and Shoeless Nick “I’ve won 1 Preakness, but my winner shares the stakes record for the race” Zito to the Triple Crown trail. Todd Pletcher is back again, but this time he only trains 22% of the field as opposed to the Derby where he trained 25%. That Todd, always trying to improve his efficiency.
Once again Triple Crown talk is buzzing around the Derby winner. “This year is different,” the pundits say. “Street Sense was the two-year-old champion. He’s trained by an old-school trainer. He’s coming off an impressive Derby win.” As I’ve told people before, the confirmed pessimist in me will believe it’s a Triple Crown when the Belmont is declared official and Street Sense has winner’s circle photos from all three races.
I've listed the horses along with the usual factoids and unsubstantiated opinions below. Due to his participation in the race, the Maryland Riding Demi-god Mario Pino bobblehead doll has recused himself from offering commentary. We’ll be relying on the Smarty Jones Eggster and the Galloping Secretariat bobblehead doll to wobble and bobble to serve our handicapping needs.
Remember the race at Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore is 1 3/16 miles long – slightly shorter than the Derby. While Pimlico is often thought to favor early speed horses, closers often do well in the Preakness too.
Mint Slewlep – Has the same VA connections as 2005 2nd place finisher, Scrappy T. His owner, Marshall Dowell, is a retired businessman who lives in Mechanicsville. Trainer Rob Bailes’ father worked at The Meadow Stud in Doswell, birthplace of Secretariat. Bailes doesn’t know if this horse is as good as Scrappy T. He ran 4th in Withers Stakes in his last race finishing behind CP West among others. He has been stabled at Pimlico all week and has a nice workout over the track. He’s never run longer than 1 1/6 miles. His pedigree has some high quality sprinters in it, but he is a grandson of Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew. Galloping Secretariat bobblehead comments – Nod. Nod.
Xchanger – He won the Tesio Stakes at Pimlico for his last race, and he’s the only horse in the race who has actually run at the track. In his two races prior to the Tesio he finished 7th and 5th behind Curlin and Teufelsberg at Oaklawn Park. He is stabled and trains at Fair Hill training center where he has some nice workouts on the fake dirt. His speed figures show a good race – bad race pattern, and it appears it’s time for a bad race. Lately he’s been running on or near the lead, but he’s shown he can close in other races. As a grandson of Danzig he’s a Polish horse, and he has some stamina blood a couple of generations back in the pedigree. If it’s muddy his breeding says he should like the slop. He’s the only grey horse in the race. Smarty Jones Eggster comment – Wobble. Twist. (Smarty has a more limited range of motion than a bobblehead.)
Circular Quay – Once again Todd Pletcher calls an audible with Circular Quay. Before the Derby he decided to skip the Wood Memorial with this horse and let him rest more. Now he’s decided to skip the post-Derby rest he had scheduled and entered him to run. Racing pundits are pondering the meaning of this. Does it mean the horse is kicking down his stall and ready to run? Or does Todd just want to look busy in the paddock, so he won’t have to talk to any reporters? Circular Quay did have a bit of a troubled trip in the Derby closing from 18th place to finish 6th. He’s been stabled at Belmont Park for the last couple of weeks where he has one quick workout. He arrived at Pimlico on Thursday. Smarty Jones Eggster comment – Twist.Turn.Wobble.
Curlin – He finished a distant 3rd in the Derby, but in the last 20 years three 3rd place finishers in the Derby have gone on to win the Preakness. Trainer Steve Asmussen believes Curlin got quite an education in the Derby which is good for a horse who still only has 4 lifetime starts. He stayed at Churchill Downs after the Derby where he had one leisurely workout. He arrived at Pimlico on Wednesday. He’s another one of the horses whose pedigree indicates he might like a muddy track, and he’s a descendant of several Preakness winners. He was born on Andrew’s birthday. Galloping Secretariat bobblehead comments – Shake. Nod. Nod.
King of the Roxy – This was the horse Todd Pletcher intended to run in the Preakness all along. He ran 2nd to Tiago in the Santa Anita Derby after leading into midstretch. He’s been resting since then. His connections thought the Derby distance might be a little too far for him. He has a lot of speed, but doesn’t necessarily want to run on the lead. The pedigree is not particularly fancy in the closest generations, (his sire is named Littleexpectations) but there are some nice stamina sources about 3 generations back. He might also like a muddy track. Smarty Jones Eggster comment – Twist.Twist.
Flying First Class – He broke his maiden back in February at Oaklawn Park where he ran the highest speed figure of any 3 year-old prior to the Derby. In his next two races, however, he finished up the track behind Curlin. He won the Derby Trial 3 weeks ago after leading most of the way. After that race he remained at Churchill Downs where he had a couple more quick workouts. Despite the losses, his speed figures in his last 3 races have been steadily improving. The pedigree doesn’t scream stamina, but it does include a lot of very nice California horses. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won the Preakness 5 times and a total of 13 Triple Crown races. Jockey Mark Guidry is planning to retire from riding later this year. Smarty Jones Eggster comment – Wobble. Wobble. D. Wayne longshot? Where’s the betting window?
Hard Spun – He was a hard-trying 2nd place finisher in the Derby and has been relaxing at Delaware Park since that race. He has had no official workouts but did blow out a quick 2 furlongs at the end of a mile gallop on Wednesday. He arrived at Pimlico on Wednesday afternoon. Trainer Larry Jones was asked a lot of questions about Hard Spun’s Derby preparations before that race, and he felt somewhat vindicated by the race results. He told reporters, "I think I think more than y'all think I think." Does that make Hard Spun the thinking person’s choice in the race? Maryland Riding Demi-god Mario Pino will have to be doing some thinking soon after the start of the race when he’ll have to decide whether to go for the lead or let one of the other fast horses take it. Don’t forget that as a son of Danzig, Hard Spun is the most Polish horse in the race. He also has previously won on an off track. Galloping Secretariat bobblehead comments – Nod.Nod. Nod. Nod.
Street Sense – The Derby champion came out of that race so well he actually went out for a gallop the next morning. Most horses just walk a bit on the morning after a big race. He also had another beautiful workout at Churchill on Tuesday before leaving for Pimlico on Wednesday. His two best races by far were run at Churchill Downs. So is he a horse for a course, or was he merely trained to peak on those two big days? Either way, where does that leave him for the Preakness? Trainer Carl Nafzger doesn’t seem to be too worried about his horse’s preparations saying, “You’re either there or you’re not there because you don’t have time to do anything.” Jockey Calvin Borel has had plenty of time to do lots of stuff after his Derby win – TV appearances, interviews, state dinners, presidential hugs, meet and greets with the Queen of England. Busy, busy, busy. On Saturday he’ll be busy trying to bring Street Sense from the back of the pack. That might be little more difficult this time as the field might be more tightly bunched than in the Derby. Street Sense has run once over a muddy track and finished 3rd. Galloping Secretariat bobblehead comments – Nod.Nod. Nod. Nod.
C P West – Yay! Shoeless Nick Zito has joined the Triple Crown party finally. C P West finished 2nd in the Withers Stakes in his last race. Last year he ran 2nd to King of the Roxy in the Belmont Futurity and 6th to Street Sense in the Breeeders’ Cup Juvenile. Lately he’s been training well at Belmont Park (not at Saratoga where Shoeless Nick often stashes his longshot winners) and he arrived at Pimlico on Wednesday. He appears to prefer running just off the pace. Former Maryland Riding God Edgar Prado has the mount. C P West has a nice pedigree with speed on his dad’s side and serious stamina on his mom’s side. Smarty Jones Eggster comment – Nick Zito can just (edited for explicit content) and take Birdstone with him. And I’m not real fond of Edgar either. (Geez Smarty, it’s been 3 years. Give it a rest already.)
There’s the field. A nice assortment of short-priced horses and longshots. In The Royal Edition 11ARFTCHC Thom, Gordon, and J.O. have a clear lead on the rest of us who are bunched tightly as we head down the backstretch. Who will make a move to catch the leaders? We’ll see on Saturday. We’ll also find out if we‘ll have a Triple Crown prospect to look forward to, or perhaps a budding Affirmed – Alydar type rivalry, or maybe some jubilant longshot winner to celebrate. Like the railbirds say, “Even when you know, you never know.”
My picks will be:
Hard Spun – I always dance with the one what brung me.
Curlin – ditto
Street Sense – Even if he is a horse for a course he’s still a good horse of course.
May the horse be with you.
The Annoyed Handicapper
