Drop.io box. The password is : horse
Here are the rankings from my occasionally successful (4 winners in 12 years) Derby handicapping process. I evaluate each horse in eight different categories, with each horse being assigned a purely subjective rating between 1 and 10. Ten is the worst and 1 is the best. The eight ratings are then weighted and totaled according to a secret formula. In this system the lower the score the better. The eight categories are as follows:
1. Breeding (B) - includes not only dosage, but if I personally liked any of the horses in the pedigree or their half-siblings, cousins, stablemates,etc., and if the pedigree does *not* contain Mr. Prospector or Storm Cat.
2. Hype (H) - Bad marks if I hear a horse's/trainer's name on the local news, or if I see the horse's/trainer's name in The Roanoke Times prior to Sat. (A horse/trainer would have to be a serious hype monster to make it past the professional bass fishing/Nascar restrictor plate coverage around here.)
3. Name (N) - Would the name look good on a Derby glass? Is it a clever or poetic name? What are the headline possibilities? Negative ratings for runallthewordstogethernames. A new criterion this year is, as one blogger put it, the “most important aspect is choosing a horse whose name can be shouted without embarrassment for two minutes straight”.
4. Mystery (M) - the dark horse category. How stupefied will the pundits be if this horse wins? The more stupefied the better.
5. Karma/best story (K) - Is there some touching, funny, sad story connected to the horse and/or his connections? Are the connections old timers ala Paul Mellon/Mack Miller with Sea Hero or are they refreshing newcomers like the Funny Cide group or the Smarty Party? Have the connections won before or are they still looking for that first magical win?
6. Photos (P) - Do I have personal snapshots of the horse? Have I seen him or her run in person?
7. Annoyance (A) - How annoying will it be to me personally if this horse and/or connections win? This entire system is most successful when I weight this category the highest in the ratings. As usual I am annoyed by twenty horse fields, so I’m continuing to weight this category heavily. Not a common approach, I know, but I am "The Annoyed Handicapper."TM
8. The usual handicapping stuff (H) - you know race records, workouts, post positions, speed figs, stuff that may or may not really matter come Derby Day anyway. I will also be paying attention to wet track performance this year. There is a high likelihood of thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday, so a sloppy track is a possibility.
West Side Bernie – Ran 2nd to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on dirt last out and earned a very nice speed figure He was sixth to Hold Me Back in the Lane’s End on fake dirt 2 back. He had a nice workout at Churchill Downs last Saturday. The pedigree is pretty light on both stamina and mud performance, but he’s descended from Danzig which makes him a Polish horse. New Jersey trainer, Kelly Breen (a 5 handicap golfer), is starting his first horses in the Derby. Smarty Jones’ jockey, Stewart Elliott, has the mount.
Musket Man – Only horse in the race that’s already won two Derbies - Illinois and Tampa Bay – beating General Quarters, Join in the Dance, and Nowhere to Hide. He’s been stabled at Churchill Downs since mid-April. His workouts have been steady, if not spectacular. He’s not really bred to win at 1 ¼ miles, but he’s already outrun his pedigree by winning his last race at 1 1/8 miles. The pedigree doesn’t promise much in the way of mud performance either. His preferred running style is to hang out in mid-pack which should be possible with the speed in this race.
Mr. Hot Stuff – Ran 3rd behind Pioneerof the Nile and Chocolate Candy in the Santa Anita Derby last out. Broke his maiden at the beginning of Feb – only has one win in seven starts, but his margins of defeat are decreasing and his connections say he’s starting to put it all together. He should be one of the closers in the race. There’s lots of stamina in the pedigree and he has a good mud rating based on pedigree. I gave him a poor name rating, because Mr. Hot Stuff is a silly Disco Era name and definitely doesn’t meet the two minute yelling criterion. He’s a full brother to last year’s 6th place Derby horse, Colonel John.
Advice – Won the Lexington Stakes on Keeneland’s fake dirt two weeks ago closing from last place. That’s where I got my photo of him. He has only one dirt start; a fifth in the Sunland Derby which is not usually much of a Derby prep. He did have a nice workout at Churchill Downs on Monday. There’s lots of bumping, checking, and lugging in his running lines, possibly due to his preferred closing style. His pedigree is not particularly encouraging for either distance or mud. Trainer Todd Pletcher is now 0 for 21 starters in the Derby and one of his horses has finished last in the last three Derbies.
Hold Me Back – Was second to General Quarters in the Blue Grass last out and won the Lane’s End over Flying Private and West Side Bernie two races back. Only one dirt start – a 5th in the Remsen last year. The pedigree has lots of stamina and he gets a good mud rating. He had a good workout at Churchill on Sunday and seemed to want to keep running afterwards. This is the 25th anniversary of trainer Bill Mott’s first start in the Derby. He’s the all time leading trainer at Churchill Downs, but he’s never finished better than eighth in the Derby. Kent Desormeaux is looking for his second Derby win in a row.
Friesan Fire – He’s the first horse to win all three Fair Grounds Derby preps including the Louisiana Derby in the slop over Papa Clem. He has steadily progressing speed figures. Even though he’s never actually run past 1 1/16 miles he has good stamina in his pedigree, particularly from the antipodeans on the distaff side (translation - his mom’s family is from Australia and New Zealand). He’s coming into the KY Derby off a seven week rest after the LA Derby, but he’d been racing steadily for five months before that, so a break might not have been a bad idea. Trainer Larry Jones sent him for a mile workout a couple of weeks ago and a very fast workout on Monday – just like he did with Derby runner-up Hard Spun two years ago. Jones, owner Rick Porter, and jockey Gabriel Saez are the same connections as finished second with Eight Belles last year. Maybe there will be some good karma to come their way this year.
Papa Clem – He won the Arkansas Derby last out over Summer Bird. In the two races before that he ran second to Friesan Fire (in the slop) and Pioneerof the Nile. He’s been at Churchill Downs since mid-April where he had a slowish 7/8’s mile workout on Saturday, but then came back Thursday morning to blow out 3/8’s in 0:34 seconds. That’s an old school training technique that’s supposed to sharpen a horse’s speed for a race. Trainer Gary Stute is the latest generation in a very successful California training family. The horse is named for the late Clement Hirsch, a noted California breeder and racetrack figure and the father of owner Bo Hirsch. The pedigree has quite a bit of stamina a couple of generations back, and he’s a Polish horse too.
Mine That Bird – Finished fourth in the Sunland Derby last out to no one I’ve heard of, but he did finish ahead of Advice. He was second in the Borderland Derby before that. He arrived at Churchill Downs last week after a two day van ride. He had one slowish work at Churchill after his arrival. He began his career last year in Canada where he was named the two year old champion. His pedigree has quite a bit of stamina, but he doesn’t have a very high mud rating. I gave him a poor name rating because there are good pedigree combo names and there are bad ones. This is a bad one for a son of Birdstone – Mining My Own.
Join in the Dance – He’s more like “late to the party” after getting in the Derby field only on Monday after Quality Road had to pull out due to a sore foot. He was fifth in the Blue Grass last out behind General Quarters and Hold Me Back and second in the Tampa Bay Derby to Musket Man two back. He ran second in a race on a sloppy Churchill Downs track last spring. He appears to be one of the early speed horses in the race, but his pedigree doesn’t look too promising for lasting the entire 1 ¼ miles. There’s some stamina, but it’s 3 – 4 generations back. He does have an excellent mud rating and he’s a Polish horse.
Regal Ransom – The sheikhs from Dubai are back for the first time since their 8th place finish in the 2001 Derby. Unfortunately for them, they’re back with what amounts to their 3rd and 4th string horses after injuries to a couple of more highly touted colts. Regal Ransom is basically the 4th stringer even though he won the UAE Derby in Dubai last out over stablemate Desert Party. He finished second to Desert Party in his two previous races. He has been working very well at Churchill for the last month including a bullet work (fastest on the day at that distance) on Saturday. He may be one of the horses fighting for the early lead in the Derby. The pedigree has stamina, but it’s mostly a couple of generations back and he doesn’t have a particularly good mud rating. He was born in late May so he’s not three years old yet.
Chocolate Candy – He finished second to Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby last out. Prior to that he had won the two Northern California Derby preps. He’s never raced on real dirt, but he’s been at Churchill Downs for a couple of weeks and he’s been working well over the track, including a nice mile workout on Apr 21. He probably will try to stalk the pace from mid-pack. There’s some nice stamina influences in the pedigree including some from Argentina such as his sire, Candy Ride. The mud rating is not all that great, but so far Candy Ride has sired 57% winners on the mud albeit from a pretty small sample. There’s more than a little irony in the fact that the owner, diet plan maven Jenny Craig, named her horse Chocolate Candy.
General Quarters – This horse has a serious karma rating since he’s the sole horse in his owner/trainer/groom’s stable. Tom McCarthy is a 75 year old retired high school principal who’s been training for fifty years. He claimed General Quarters for $20,000 as a two year old after he had been unable to buy him at an auction the previous year. General Quarters won the Blue Grass Stakes on fake dirt last out over Hold Me Back, and two races back he was fifth to Musket Man and Join in the Dance in the Tampa Bay Derby. He raced three times at Churchill Downs last year with one win and a third. His pedigree might be a little iffy for the distance, but he has one of the highest mud ratings in the field and he’s Polish too. Look for him to press the pace from just behind the leaders.
I Want Revenge – The probable Derby favorite began his career running second and third to Pioneerof the Nile on the fake dirt in California. He came east this spring to run in the New York Derby preps on real dirt and won the Gotham and Wood Memorial over West Side Bernie among others. The Wood Memorial was particularly impressive since he broke poorly and had traffic trouble in the stretch, but still managed to win. IEAH Stables (the owners of Big Brown) bought a 50% interest in the horse before the Wood. I Want Revenge has the best speed figures of any horse in the race. He usually presses the pace just behind the leaders, but his last race shows he can close too. He’s been stabled at Churchill Downs for a couple of weeks, and he’s been working well. He had a bullet work on Tuesday morning. Trainer Jeff Mullins in some ways is a lot like Big Brown’s trainer, Rick Dutrow, only without the media skills. Nineteen year old jockey Joe Talamo has media skills however, since he’s one of the stars of Animal Planet’s reality series, Jockeys, along with Mike Smith and Garret Gomez. I Want Revenge has good stamina in his pedigree even though his sire, Stephen Got Even, finished 14th in the 1999 Derby. A lot of the stamina on his dam’s side is from Argentina. His mud rating is only so-so.
Atomic Rain – He got in the race on Tuesday when Square Eddie was injured. His trainer, Kelly Breen (the 5 handicapper) put him on a van from New Jersey and he arrived at Churchill Downs on Wednesday. He won’t have any works over the track before the race, just some gallops. He did have a bullet workout in New Jersey on Tuesday before he got on the van. He’s a stablemate of West Side Bernie and ran fourth behind him and winner I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial last out. He was seventh behind General Quarters and Musket Man in the Sam F Davis at Tampa in February. He does have improving speed figures in his last three races. The pedigree has some stamina, but the mud rating is only fair. He gets a good karma rating because his birthday is on Derby Day. And yes, I did listen to Blondie’s “Atomic” before I wrote all this.
Dunkirk – This is supposed to be Todd Pletcher’s best hope in the race. The horse has only three lifetime starts – none as a two year old. No horse has won the Derby after being unraced at two since Apollo in 1882. Dunkirk’s only stakes race was a second to injured Derby favorite, Quality Road in the Florida Derby five weeks ago, but he does have really good speed figures in his last two races. He’ll probably be closing from the back half of the field. He just shipped to Churchill Downs from Florida a couple of days ago and has done no more than gallop over the track. Edgar Prado picks up the mount after Garret Gomez decided to ride Pioneerof the Nile instead. His pedigree should be OK for 1 ¼ miles and he has one of the highest mud ratings in the field.
Pioneerof the Nile – He started his career on the turf and then moved to the fake dirt. He’s never raced on real dirt. He’s on a four race win streak including the Santa Anita Derby over Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff as well as the RB Lewis over Papa Clem and I Want Revenge. He doesn’t have outstanding speed figures, and the combined margin of victory during his win streak is 2 ¾ lengths, but there’s always a possibility he’ll improve on real dirt much like I Want Revenge has. He’s been working very well at Churchill Downs and trainer Bouncy Bob Baffert knows a thing or two about training a Derby horse. Bouncy Bob was just elected to the Racing Hall of Fame this year. Garret Gomez chose to ride this horse over Dunkirk. The pedigree has a lot of stamina on his sire, Empire Maker’s, side, but a surprisingly low mud rating given that Empire Maker beat Funny Cide in the mud at Belmont. He’s related to Patty’s horse, Key Spirit.
Summer Bird – Like Dunkirk he only has three lifetime starts none of which were as a two year old. He closed from dead last to run third behind Papa Clem in the Arkansas Derby last out. He does have steadily improving speed figures. He’s from the first crop of foals by Birdstone who threw a shoe in the 2004 Derby and finished 8th. Birdstone’s defeat of Smarty Jones in the Belmont bumped up the annoyance rating slightly for Summer Bird. Trainer Tim Ice is in his first year as a head trainer. The Arkansas Derby was jockey Chris Rosier’s first mount in a graded stakes race. He returned to riding full time last summer after being off for two years while he was diagnosed with diabetes. Summer Bird’s pedigree is full of stamina, but he has a very low mud rating.
Nowhere to Hide – Last one in the field’s a rotten egg! Wait maybe that’s just a leftover easter egg from the yard that I smell. Nowhere to Hide was the last horse to make the Derby field after Win Willy pulled out, but that’s not a bad thing since he brings trainer Shoeless Nick Zito to join the party. Nowhere to Hide has run fourth in his last three starts – behind Musket Man in the Illinois Derby and Tampa Bay Derby and behind Friesan Fire in the Risen Star stakes. He’s only won one race, but his speed figures are not that much different from a lot of other horses in the Derby. He’s been stabled at Churchill Downs and has one somewhat slow workout over the track two weeks ago. He does have a nice pedigree going for him as well as the best mud rating in the entire field. I imagine Shoeless Nick is making the appropriate offerings to the rain gods even as I type this.
Desert Party – Here’s the other horse owned by the sheikhs from Dubai. Desert Party is the 3rd stringer even though he ran second in the UAE Derby in Dubai last out to stablemate Regal Ransom. He had beaten him in his two previous races in Dubai. He began his career in the US as a two year old and won in the mud at Saratoga. He’s been working extremely well at Churchill Downs and some of the press handicappers have begun to take notice. He’ll probably be closing from mid-pack during the race. The pedigree has stamina and he’s a son of Street Cry who also sired Derby winner Street Sense.
Flying Private – D. Wayne Lukas is back again and he got stuck on the outside. That’s no way to treat a man trying to win his fifth Derby! Flying Private was fifth in the Arkansas Derby behind Papa Clem and Summer Bird last out. He was second to Hold Me Back two races back in the Lane’s End on fake dirt. He has ten lifetime starts and only one win, but he has run twice at Churchill Downs with one second place finish. The speed figures aren’t too bad, but they were noticeably better on the fake dirt than the real dirt. He does have a couple of good workouts at Churchill Downs. The pedigree has most of the stamina 4 – 5 generations back but he is a Polish horse and does have a good mud rating.
Musket Man – Only horse in the race that’s already won two Derbies - Illinois and Tampa Bay – beating General Quarters, Join in the Dance, and Nowhere to Hide. He’s been stabled at Churchill Downs since mid-April. His workouts have been steady, if not spectacular. He’s not really bred to win at 1 ¼ miles, but he’s already outrun his pedigree by winning his last race at 1 1/8 miles. The pedigree doesn’t promise much in the way of mud performance either. His preferred running style is to hang out in mid-pack which should be possible with the speed in this race.
Mr. Hot Stuff – Ran 3rd behind Pioneerof the Nile and Chocolate Candy in the Santa Anita Derby last out. Broke his maiden at the beginning of Feb – only has one win in seven starts, but his margins of defeat are decreasing and his connections say he’s starting to put it all together. He should be one of the closers in the race. There’s lots of stamina in the pedigree and he has a good mud rating based on pedigree. I gave him a poor name rating, because Mr. Hot Stuff is a silly Disco Era name and definitely doesn’t meet the two minute yelling criterion. He’s a full brother to last year’s 6th place Derby horse, Colonel John.
Advice – Won the Lexington Stakes on Keeneland’s fake dirt two weeks ago closing from last place. That’s where I got my photo of him. He has only one dirt start; a fifth in the Sunland Derby which is not usually much of a Derby prep. He did have a nice workout at Churchill Downs on Monday. There’s lots of bumping, checking, and lugging in his running lines, possibly due to his preferred closing style. His pedigree is not particularly encouraging for either distance or mud. Trainer Todd Pletcher is now 0 for 21 starters in the Derby and one of his horses has finished last in the last three Derbies.
Hold Me Back – Was second to General Quarters in the Blue Grass last out and won the Lane’s End over Flying Private and West Side Bernie two races back. Only one dirt start – a 5th in the Remsen last year. The pedigree has lots of stamina and he gets a good mud rating. He had a good workout at Churchill on Sunday and seemed to want to keep running afterwards. This is the 25th anniversary of trainer Bill Mott’s first start in the Derby. He’s the all time leading trainer at Churchill Downs, but he’s never finished better than eighth in the Derby. Kent Desormeaux is looking for his second Derby win in a row.
Friesan Fire – He’s the first horse to win all three Fair Grounds Derby preps including the Louisiana Derby in the slop over Papa Clem. He has steadily progressing speed figures. Even though he’s never actually run past 1 1/16 miles he has good stamina in his pedigree, particularly from the antipodeans on the distaff side (translation - his mom’s family is from Australia and New Zealand). He’s coming into the KY Derby off a seven week rest after the LA Derby, but he’d been racing steadily for five months before that, so a break might not have been a bad idea. Trainer Larry Jones sent him for a mile workout a couple of weeks ago and a very fast workout on Monday – just like he did with Derby runner-up Hard Spun two years ago. Jones, owner Rick Porter, and jockey Gabriel Saez are the same connections as finished second with Eight Belles last year. Maybe there will be some good karma to come their way this year.
Papa Clem – He won the Arkansas Derby last out over Summer Bird. In the two races before that he ran second to Friesan Fire (in the slop) and Pioneerof the Nile. He’s been at Churchill Downs since mid-April where he had a slowish 7/8’s mile workout on Saturday, but then came back Thursday morning to blow out 3/8’s in 0:34 seconds. That’s an old school training technique that’s supposed to sharpen a horse’s speed for a race. Trainer Gary Stute is the latest generation in a very successful California training family. The horse is named for the late Clement Hirsch, a noted California breeder and racetrack figure and the father of owner Bo Hirsch. The pedigree has quite a bit of stamina a couple of generations back, and he’s a Polish horse too.
Mine That Bird – Finished fourth in the Sunland Derby last out to no one I’ve heard of, but he did finish ahead of Advice. He was second in the Borderland Derby before that. He arrived at Churchill Downs last week after a two day van ride. He had one slowish work at Churchill after his arrival. He began his career last year in Canada where he was named the two year old champion. His pedigree has quite a bit of stamina, but he doesn’t have a very high mud rating. I gave him a poor name rating because there are good pedigree combo names and there are bad ones. This is a bad one for a son of Birdstone – Mining My Own.
Join in the Dance – He’s more like “late to the party” after getting in the Derby field only on Monday after Quality Road had to pull out due to a sore foot. He was fifth in the Blue Grass last out behind General Quarters and Hold Me Back and second in the Tampa Bay Derby to Musket Man two back. He ran second in a race on a sloppy Churchill Downs track last spring. He appears to be one of the early speed horses in the race, but his pedigree doesn’t look too promising for lasting the entire 1 ¼ miles. There’s some stamina, but it’s 3 – 4 generations back. He does have an excellent mud rating and he’s a Polish horse.
Regal Ransom – The sheikhs from Dubai are back for the first time since their 8th place finish in the 2001 Derby. Unfortunately for them, they’re back with what amounts to their 3rd and 4th string horses after injuries to a couple of more highly touted colts. Regal Ransom is basically the 4th stringer even though he won the UAE Derby in Dubai last out over stablemate Desert Party. He finished second to Desert Party in his two previous races. He has been working very well at Churchill for the last month including a bullet work (fastest on the day at that distance) on Saturday. He may be one of the horses fighting for the early lead in the Derby. The pedigree has stamina, but it’s mostly a couple of generations back and he doesn’t have a particularly good mud rating. He was born in late May so he’s not three years old yet.
Chocolate Candy – He finished second to Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby last out. Prior to that he had won the two Northern California Derby preps. He’s never raced on real dirt, but he’s been at Churchill Downs for a couple of weeks and he’s been working well over the track, including a nice mile workout on Apr 21. He probably will try to stalk the pace from mid-pack. There’s some nice stamina influences in the pedigree including some from Argentina such as his sire, Candy Ride. The mud rating is not all that great, but so far Candy Ride has sired 57% winners on the mud albeit from a pretty small sample. There’s more than a little irony in the fact that the owner, diet plan maven Jenny Craig, named her horse Chocolate Candy.
General Quarters – This horse has a serious karma rating since he’s the sole horse in his owner/trainer/groom’s stable. Tom McCarthy is a 75 year old retired high school principal who’s been training for fifty years. He claimed General Quarters for $20,000 as a two year old after he had been unable to buy him at an auction the previous year. General Quarters won the Blue Grass Stakes on fake dirt last out over Hold Me Back, and two races back he was fifth to Musket Man and Join in the Dance in the Tampa Bay Derby. He raced three times at Churchill Downs last year with one win and a third. His pedigree might be a little iffy for the distance, but he has one of the highest mud ratings in the field and he’s Polish too. Look for him to press the pace from just behind the leaders.
I Want Revenge – The probable Derby favorite began his career running second and third to Pioneerof the Nile on the fake dirt in California. He came east this spring to run in the New York Derby preps on real dirt and won the Gotham and Wood Memorial over West Side Bernie among others. The Wood Memorial was particularly impressive since he broke poorly and had traffic trouble in the stretch, but still managed to win. IEAH Stables (the owners of Big Brown) bought a 50% interest in the horse before the Wood. I Want Revenge has the best speed figures of any horse in the race. He usually presses the pace just behind the leaders, but his last race shows he can close too. He’s been stabled at Churchill Downs for a couple of weeks, and he’s been working well. He had a bullet work on Tuesday morning. Trainer Jeff Mullins in some ways is a lot like Big Brown’s trainer, Rick Dutrow, only without the media skills. Nineteen year old jockey Joe Talamo has media skills however, since he’s one of the stars of Animal Planet’s reality series, Jockeys, along with Mike Smith and Garret Gomez. I Want Revenge has good stamina in his pedigree even though his sire, Stephen Got Even, finished 14th in the 1999 Derby. A lot of the stamina on his dam’s side is from Argentina. His mud rating is only so-so.
Atomic Rain – He got in the race on Tuesday when Square Eddie was injured. His trainer, Kelly Breen (the 5 handicapper) put him on a van from New Jersey and he arrived at Churchill Downs on Wednesday. He won’t have any works over the track before the race, just some gallops. He did have a bullet workout in New Jersey on Tuesday before he got on the van. He’s a stablemate of West Side Bernie and ran fourth behind him and winner I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial last out. He was seventh behind General Quarters and Musket Man in the Sam F Davis at Tampa in February. He does have improving speed figures in his last three races. The pedigree has some stamina, but the mud rating is only fair. He gets a good karma rating because his birthday is on Derby Day. And yes, I did listen to Blondie’s “Atomic” before I wrote all this.
Dunkirk – This is supposed to be Todd Pletcher’s best hope in the race. The horse has only three lifetime starts – none as a two year old. No horse has won the Derby after being unraced at two since Apollo in 1882. Dunkirk’s only stakes race was a second to injured Derby favorite, Quality Road in the Florida Derby five weeks ago, but he does have really good speed figures in his last two races. He’ll probably be closing from the back half of the field. He just shipped to Churchill Downs from Florida a couple of days ago and has done no more than gallop over the track. Edgar Prado picks up the mount after Garret Gomez decided to ride Pioneerof the Nile instead. His pedigree should be OK for 1 ¼ miles and he has one of the highest mud ratings in the field.
Pioneerof the Nile – He started his career on the turf and then moved to the fake dirt. He’s never raced on real dirt. He’s on a four race win streak including the Santa Anita Derby over Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff as well as the RB Lewis over Papa Clem and I Want Revenge. He doesn’t have outstanding speed figures, and the combined margin of victory during his win streak is 2 ¾ lengths, but there’s always a possibility he’ll improve on real dirt much like I Want Revenge has. He’s been working very well at Churchill Downs and trainer Bouncy Bob Baffert knows a thing or two about training a Derby horse. Bouncy Bob was just elected to the Racing Hall of Fame this year. Garret Gomez chose to ride this horse over Dunkirk. The pedigree has a lot of stamina on his sire, Empire Maker’s, side, but a surprisingly low mud rating given that Empire Maker beat Funny Cide in the mud at Belmont. He’s related to Patty’s horse, Key Spirit.
Summer Bird – Like Dunkirk he only has three lifetime starts none of which were as a two year old. He closed from dead last to run third behind Papa Clem in the Arkansas Derby last out. He does have steadily improving speed figures. He’s from the first crop of foals by Birdstone who threw a shoe in the 2004 Derby and finished 8th. Birdstone’s defeat of Smarty Jones in the Belmont bumped up the annoyance rating slightly for Summer Bird. Trainer Tim Ice is in his first year as a head trainer. The Arkansas Derby was jockey Chris Rosier’s first mount in a graded stakes race. He returned to riding full time last summer after being off for two years while he was diagnosed with diabetes. Summer Bird’s pedigree is full of stamina, but he has a very low mud rating.
Nowhere to Hide – Last one in the field’s a rotten egg! Wait maybe that’s just a leftover easter egg from the yard that I smell. Nowhere to Hide was the last horse to make the Derby field after Win Willy pulled out, but that’s not a bad thing since he brings trainer Shoeless Nick Zito to join the party. Nowhere to Hide has run fourth in his last three starts – behind Musket Man in the Illinois Derby and Tampa Bay Derby and behind Friesan Fire in the Risen Star stakes. He’s only won one race, but his speed figures are not that much different from a lot of other horses in the Derby. He’s been stabled at Churchill Downs and has one somewhat slow workout over the track two weeks ago. He does have a nice pedigree going for him as well as the best mud rating in the entire field. I imagine Shoeless Nick is making the appropriate offerings to the rain gods even as I type this.
Desert Party – Here’s the other horse owned by the sheikhs from Dubai. Desert Party is the 3rd stringer even though he ran second in the UAE Derby in Dubai last out to stablemate Regal Ransom. He had beaten him in his two previous races in Dubai. He began his career in the US as a two year old and won in the mud at Saratoga. He’s been working extremely well at Churchill Downs and some of the press handicappers have begun to take notice. He’ll probably be closing from mid-pack during the race. The pedigree has stamina and he’s a son of Street Cry who also sired Derby winner Street Sense.
Flying Private – D. Wayne Lukas is back again and he got stuck on the outside. That’s no way to treat a man trying to win his fifth Derby! Flying Private was fifth in the Arkansas Derby behind Papa Clem and Summer Bird last out. He was second to Hold Me Back two races back in the Lane’s End on fake dirt. He has ten lifetime starts and only one win, but he has run twice at Churchill Downs with one second place finish. The speed figures aren’t too bad, but they were noticeably better on the fake dirt than the real dirt. He does have a couple of good workouts at Churchill Downs. The pedigree has most of the stamina 4 – 5 generations back but he is a Polish horse and does have a good mud rating.
