Preakness Picks

Here’s my look at the Preakness field. I’ve taken a line from The Annoyed Handicapper and carefully crafted my own original thoughts. All odds are morning line odds from Friday, but I believe the odds on Big Brown are now something like 3-10.

Macho Again (20-1) – Won the Derby Trial three weeks ago and earned a nice speed figure.

This is an intriguing long shot. His performance in the Derby Trial was …nice. (I have a hard time writing that word without thinking of one of my favorite South Park scenes… I know it doesn’t really fit the situation, but it is …nice.)

Tres Borrachos (30-1) - He ran 3^rd behind Gayego in the Arkansas Derby five weeks ago.

I watched that race and was not impressed.

Icabad Crane (30-1) – He’s the only horse in the race who has run at Pimlico. He won the traditional Preakness prep race, the Tesio Stakes, 4 weeks ago after prevailing in a tough stretch duel.

Home course merits consideration. But there is too much to overcome.

Yankee Bravo (15-1) In his last race he was 4^th behind Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby. Before that he was 3^rd behind Pyro in the LA Derby.

This horse has been disappointing me all year. I fully expected a better effort in the Santa Anita, but he didn’t deliver. He’s an all-American out of the money finisher.

Racecar Rhapsody (30-1)–He’s finished 4^th in his last 3 races behind Z Humor, Adriano, and Behindatthebar among others.

He finished far behind horses that finished far behind Big Brown.

Big Brown (1-2) – The Derby winner has been taking it easy at Churchill Downs – jogging, an occasional gallop, nothing too strenuous.

Beyond Chalk. Big Brown won me over in the Derby. With only four races under his belt, he’s proven to be a true force against a weak class.

Kentucky Bear (15-1) –. Last out, Kentucky Bear finished 3^rd in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Monba after going 9 wide into the stretch.

The Blue Grass was perhaps the most bizarre race of the year. Watch the move by Stevil in the stretch. He just came up empty. KB was strong but couldn’t match the two horses that lost to Big Brown in the Derby.

Stevil (30-1) –In his last race he was 4^th in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Monba and Kentucky Bear after a troubled trip.

Watch the move by Stevil in the stretch. He just came up empty. Heard that before? I’m wondering if Stevil gets a clear trip if he can be more of a factor. That being said. The Bluegrass was 1 1/8. The Preakness is slightly longer (1 3/16). Stevil gave everything he had at 1 mile and had nothing more. How much did the bad trip take out of him?

Riley Tucker (30-1) - He does have improving speed figures and finished a nice 3^rd behind Behindatthebar in the Lexington Stakes last out.

If he had a Z in his name it would be Zero Factor.

Giant Moon (30-1) – He ran a game 4^th behind Tale of Ekati in the Wood Memorial after pressing the pace. That was 7 weeks ago and he has been training well at Belmont Park since then, including a bullet work on Tuesday.

I want to like this horse. He ran a very strong 4^th in the Wood. That was another unusual race…fast, with a rabbit pushing War Pass to speedy fractions. Tale of Ekati came on to nip him at the wire. Court Vision just got a head in front of Giant Moon at the line as well. This is a sleeper horse.

Gayego (8-1) –They wanted to give him some recovery time after his 17^th place Derby finish in which he shied away from the crowd going past the stands the first time and ended up running over top of several other horses.

I didn’t think he was that impressive in the Arkansas Derby and he proved that by slinking in in 17^th place in the Derby. He did have an outside post, but so did Big Brown. I just don’t see him suddenly become better than he’s shown.

Hey Byrn (20-1) – He won the Holy Bull Stakes at the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles in his last start.

No respect. Nobody respects this horse. He was a favorite in the Florida Derby, but was bombed by Big brown losing by over 17 lengths. He looked excellent, however, in his last race, The Holy Bull (Now raced on the undercard on Arkansas Derby day at Oaklawn). Can he recapture his early unproven praise?

So here’s my projected order of finish:

1. Big Brown

2. Giant Moon

3. Kentucky Bear

4. Hey Byrn

5. Stevil

6. Gayego

7. Macho Again

8. The rest

Like others, I reserve the right to change my picks right up until post.

~Newt